Aggression in Ukraine, with 100 or more Ukraine soldiers killed per day in Donbass. While Putin was victim of a failed assassination attempt, in March

Tally of a price in blood

First see this article in Soldier of Fortune, While the magazine has a reputation problem with some, its Ukraine analysis and factuality are excellent. And secondly the stunner, from Jerusalem Post which brings up what I have heard for over 2 MONTHS, that Putin was a victim of a failed assassination attempt, in March: Clearly the ground is shifting and elites in Russia are flummoxed and enraged by the turn of events.

See this

https://sofrep.com/news/russia-clings-to-20-of-ukraine-after-100-days-of-war-fierce-fighting-in-severodonetsk-rages-on/?utm_source=Klaviyo&utm_medium=campaign&_kx=BD4MHxpp4jmXYreMjwwfXR1fhoExnotQgmZtW69_UU8%3D.HVS3Ca

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NEWS

Russia Clings to 20% of Ukraine After 100 Days of War: Fierce Fighting in Severodonetsk Rages On

by?SOFREP

13 hours ago

One of the few intact bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk (OSINTtechnical/Twitter)

With the 100th day of the war in Ukraine passing, the battle rages on to obtain complete control of Severodonetsk as the Russians make small gains in the east. Russian and Ukrainian troops remain in fierce fighting in the city, an area that is now mostly controlled by Russian forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has admitted that the Russian invasion in the east had been partially successful, with 20% of Ukraine’s territory (some 48,262 sq. miles or 125,000 sq. km) now under Russian control. According to several reports, some 115,830 sq miles (300,000 sq. km) of Ukrainian soil is littered with mines and unexploded ordnances (UXOs).

“As of today, about 20 percent of our territory is under the control of the occupiers. Almost 125 thousand square kilometers. This is much larger than the area of all the Benelux Countries combined,” he said during his?speech to the lawmakers in Luxembourg.

For comparison, Russia holds as much land mass as the state of Mississippi, which measures 48,430 sq. miles (125,443 sq. km). It is also comparable to Pennsylvania at 46,055 sq. miles (119,282 sq. km). When compared to European countries, it would cover the landmass of both Austria and Switzerland, or 55% of the United Kingdom. Needless to say, 20% is not ignorable and is a substantial portion of Ukraine.

This estimation reportedly included the 2014-annexed Crimea and portions of Donbas that Russia has long supported, namely the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republic,” which nobody from the international community recognizes.

Battle map of Ukraine depicting Russian-held areas (Alexander Khrebet/Twitter)

He also added that some 12 million Ukrainians had become internally displaced due to the continued Russian shelling. More than 5 million Ukrainians, mostly women and children, have reportedly gone abroad. As many as 600,000 Ukrainians may have been forcibly removed by the Russian army and relocated inside Russia itself

More so, the Russians have been making small but important gains in Eastern Ukraine. They have reportedly been pushing toward Ukraine’s de facto administrative center in the east, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in Donetsk. Fighting has been particularly intense in Severodonetsk in Luhansk. If the city falls, together with another nearby city of Lysychansk, the Russians will now control the entirety of Luhansk.

If they manage to control Luhansk, they will be one step nearer to their revised invasion goal, which is to completely “liberate” the entirety of the Donbas region. Currently, the Russians control 70% of Severodonetsk, which does mean that the Ukrainian forces are in a bit of trouble in that area.

This information is confirmed not only by western sources but also by pro-Russian sources. Head of the Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Leonid Pasechnik claimed that the LNR controls all Luhansk Oblast except for Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

Despite the Russians gaining ground in Ukraine, Zelensky remains positive about the whole situation. The Ukrainians have taken back 20 small towns and villages in Kherson. The war has turned into a slugfest of artillery shells hitting each other’s positions, with both sides digging trenches in what seems to be a throwback to World War I.

“We have been defending Ukraine for 100 days already. Victory will be ours,” Zelensky said.

“Nobody expected Ukrainians to have courage of this magnitude. But this magnitude is there. And this quality of our character, our willingness to fight for freedom and for our values – and these are the common values of all free Europeans – is now based on the support we have received from our partners,” he added

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Also see the following:

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-708486

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RUSSIAN PRESIDENT Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting of the State Council Presidium at the Kremlin, last week.

(photo credit: Sputnik/Kremlin/Reuters)

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Russian President Vladimir Putin survived an assassination attempt last March and is undergoing treatment for advanced cancer, according to a confidential US intelligence report.?

High-ranking US intelligence leaders shared the report with?Newsweek?and describe the Russian leader as increasingly isolated, paranoid and fearful, as?his reported struggles with health issues?and internal dissent within Russia grow.?

After the failed?assassination attempt against him?in March, Putin disappeared from the public eye for a period in April – when he was reportedly treated for advanced-stage cancer, the report claims.

"Putin's grip is strong but no longer absolute," one of the senior intelligence officers involved with the reports explained. "The jockeying inside the Kremlin has never been more intense during his rule, everyone sensing that the end is near."

Looming health questions

Putin has been the subject of speculation about his health since at least 2016, when independent Russian media outlet?Proekt?reported that Putin traveled with a team of 5-13 doctors at all times from 2016 to 2017, such as an ENT specialist, an infectious diseases specialist, and a neurosurgeon.

SINCE 2012 Putin has remained president and recently enacted a law that guarantees his position until 2036. (credit: Sputnik/Kremlin/Reuters)

Putin also disappeared from the public eye for certain periods at a time, per Proekt, who said 12 specialists, including personal doctors, neurosurgeons, and a rehabilitation specialist, checked in at the Sochi hospital near his residence in November 2016.?

The Russian President also disappeared from public view in mid-August 2017, when he met with oncologist-surgeon Evgeny Selivanov – a doctor Proekt claims has flown to Putin’s locations 35 times over the last four years.?

"I don't think that a sane person can suspect any signs of an illness or ailment in this man," said?Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov?on French TV last weekend, citing Putin's recent public appearances.

An intelligence leader involved in the report expressed doubts with Lavrov’s assurances, explaining that Lavrov likely said this as a display of loyalty and adding that "Putin is definitely sick ... whether he's going to die soon is mere speculation."

Paranoia and isolation

The COVID-19 pandemic brought with it signs of increased paranoia by Putin, who imposed strict isolation procedures — such as isolation for two weeks prior and requiring visitors to pass through a disinfectant tunnel – and has been pictured meeting with fellow world leaders at Putin’s now-infamously long table.?

Russia has also seemingly increased its response to dissent against Putin: opposition news outlets have been censored, politicians and military leaders dismissed and arrested, and Putin has grown increasingly isolated as disapproval mounts – highlighted by the apparent assassination attempt, which Ukraine's Chief of Defense Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov last week also said occurred.?

"One source of our best intelligence, which is contact with outsiders, largely dried up as a result of the Ukraine war," an official who read out the report said. "Putin has had few meetings with foreign leaders… (his)?isolation has thus increased?levels of speculation."

Speculation increases amid war

The month of May brought an increase in speculation that Putin is suffering from health ailments. A Russian oligarch reportedly said Putin is suffering from blood cancer in an audio tape leaked to New Lines Magazine. Richard Dearlove, the former head of Britain's MI6 spy agency, suggested Putin was ill on a recent podcast – a sentiment former MI6 Russia bureau chief Christopher Steele concurs with, per his interview with British talk radio station LBC.?

As Ukraine’s defense chief and US intelligence officials bring forward their own reports of Putin’s condition, an issue the Kremlin finally addressed via Lavrov’s interview with French TV channel TF1 last week.

"I'll leave it on the conscience of those who disseminate such rumors," Lavrov declared.?

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Let us get first of all to the big one. I.e. what I have heard for more than TWO months is that Putin was nearly killed in March, 2022, and that aside from that his health is in rapid decline. Since Russia today is not strictly speaking an organized country, but has more akin to being a giant version of what America would have been if Al Capone had taken the White House in the 1930s with all that implies (Al Capone was a legendary Italian Mafia boss) , having supreme made man Vladimir Putin either killed, or ruined beyond repair due to cancer related "issues" would provoke a gangland feud more akin to a Blood and Crips style shoot out among oligarchs than anything else. Meanwhile the sheer abandon showed in saturation terror bombing and dumb munitions attack applied en masse in Donbass, i.e. see the above map, is based upon a surprisingly fragile basis. If Ukraine has 50 + kilometer interdiction weapons, territory up to the Crimea would be fair game for disruption of delivery to the Russian military of dumb bombs, and old style munitions attacks via artillery. i.e. the combination of an extremely sick Putin, plus disruption of delivery of dumb (not smart ) munitions would lead to a splintering of Russian war fighting capacity. In this case the entire war of aggression, if corrected by long range artillery on the Ukraine side, plus other similar weapons, would be enough to get elites in Russia, once again, to try to oust Putin. In this case the geography of occupied Ukraine is Russia's biggest liability, provided appropriate long range weapons are delivered to the Ukraine military

Andrew Beckwith, PhD