Against "political fragmentation"
Is downbeat talk of political fragmentation obscuring the upsides of increased diversification?
In Political Science, the development in many countries with proportional representation systems that more and more parties are represented in Parliament, is called "fragmentation" - and by the media sometimes also "Dutchification", as the Netherlands have been experiencing this as one of the first Western countries. It also means that instead of the classic two-way coalition, there are three-way or even four-way coalitions in Government (as currently in NL in the Cabinet Rutte III).
Now "fragmentation" is a negative frame - it implies the splintering of something that was whole, and it comes with the preconceived notion that such "fragmented" systems are harder to govern, and inherently more unstable.
I have been arguing a while against this idea, and on the contrary, that this development is also an opportunity: more diversity can mean better and broader representation, and more players can allow for more creativity in the political game. Of course it also comes with challenges. But in any way we should regard both sides to the story, and therefore call it more neutrally "diversification" of political systems.
Now there is some evidence (see graph above) that with increasing political diversification in the Netherlands, citizens' satisfaction with the political system has risen. Naturally, correlation does not mean causation - but it is still interesting that the two graphs do NOT run in different directions.
If there is indeed a positive relation, we should talk about lowering electoral thresholds (e.g. 5% in Germany).
Data source: Pepijn Bergsen.
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5 年It seems to me that simply lowering the threshold for parties to enter the Parliament does not solve the issue of representation and that the political system needs to be taken into account, too. I understand that some people in two party systems would want more diversity in Parliament (and that‘s what happened in the UK and partly also in the US). But the flipside is a Parliament that is completely unable to form a majority like in Weimar in 20th century Germany or even in the most recent elections in Thuringia. I actually think that many political systems are already quite good in adapting to new environments as France, Austria and maybe even the UK show where new parties emerged that reacted to an objective gap in political representation.
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5 年I agree, Josef. I think few would look at the two- or three-party systems in the UK and US at present and say they fairly reflect their populations. At the same time, the repeated failure of coalitions in Spain and Italy have become so frustrating for their people. Call it fragmentation or diversification but I don't think any one system is a guaranteed 'cure' for dissatisfaction with politics.
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5 年Hi, I like the article but just to mention that I found the title a little confusing in relation to the content. Might you add a sub-title such as "Is downbeat talk of political fragmentation obscuring the upsides of increased diversification?"?