The Aftermath of COP28 - no cause for optimism
The most pressing aim of COP28 was to phase out all fossil fuels. How successful was the meeting at achieving this aim?
COP28 began unfolding with doubts cast about its success from 21 November, when its President Sultan Al Jaber (who also happened to be CEO of UAE’s state-owned oil company) allegedly made the statement that “'there is no science out there, that says the phase-out of fossil fuels is what's going to achieve 1.5C”. (He later held a press conference to say his statement was misinterpreted). ?
A day before the official end of the meeting on 12 December, ABC news reported that a draft of the final deal had removed the text from an earlier ?draft that had assured that fossil fuels would be “phased out”. According to ABC TV’s Daniel Mercer, the Samoan Environment Minister protested strongly by saying ?“ we will not sign our death warrants? (See ??https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-12-12/draft-cop28-text-omits-fossil-fuel-phase-out/103216494)
The final agreement, released on 13 December, only managed to add the phrase “ transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems” (see? https://unfccc.int/news/cop28-agreement-signals-beginning-of-the-end-of-the-fossil-fuel-era ).
But was this good enough?
Attempts to include the phasing out fossil fuels had begun in COP26 in 2021. But it had to wait till COP27 in Egypt before it was agreed to include the weaker language of ?“ accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power and the phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies.” COP28 this year could only agree to a watered-down “transitioning away from fossil fuels.” A full commitment to the phase out is still awaited.
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It is clear that little progress has been made over the last three years. Meanwhile, the recent extreme weather events felt globally are strong indications that we are already heading for a climate catastrophe. We must start drastically reducing our annual emissions now. A polite “transitioning away” from fossil fuels will not satisfy this drastic requirement.
The reluctance by the fossil fuel industry to phase out fossil fuels is due to the anticipated loss of revenues. Financial incentives always over-ride other imperatives, no matter how important. So, are there other ways? I argue that there are. But they need further? research and new thinking. The first issue, however is winning the support of the UNFCCC in. One notes the success the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). This group, led by Anne Rasmussen, had an outstanding performance at COP28. Can AOSIS and similar bodies go further and introduce new thinking to the climate change debate?
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