After the virus (part 1)

5 emerging cross-industry trends that have been radically acccelerated by the crisis

The prospect of a pandemic has been a well known systemic risk for many years, but no one could have predicted the exact timing or nature of the current coronavirus crisis.

That’s often the way with trends: the big shifts are well known; there are many weak signals; but it’s hard if not impossible to know exactly the timing and shape of the bell curve that most trends follow. Will they stay niche for one year? Three years? Or suddenly see accelerated mass adoption because of some external trigger? 

That’s why at times like this, when everything seems to be in flux, it’s useful to be able to look at trends that were already ‘out there’. Which new behaviors have early adopters and pioneer brands already been embracing? Which trends looked years away from the mainstream (and so were easy to ignore), but now feel primed to become totally normal in a matter of months, if not weeks? 

On an organizational level, times of crises can be both threatening and liberating. Most of the executives we speak with are painfully aware of the gap between their oil tanker-sized organizations and their new, agile startup competitors. But cultural change is hard, without a big shock that means all the old ‘rules’ can be broken. This is that moment.

Here’s a selection of 5 emerging consumer trends we’ve been tracking for some years, that offer powerful early signals of what people will value and their priorities in a post-coronavirus world. 

As you scan these trends ask yourself: are we prepared for these new behaviors? Are we ready to meet these new expectations?

You can read Part 2 here.

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1. VIRTUAL EXPERIENCE ECONOMY 

You know all about the Experience Economy. When superstars like Billie Eilish are cancelling tours, sports leagues are called off, the Louvre is shut and the Olympics are looking more precarious by the day, there will be a massive void in people's lives. But immersive new technologies mean that people can increasingly get their experience-based status fixes from virtual experiences, too. Social media and esports are the obvious manifestations of how consumers accrue status in the virtual realm. But now watch out for other, less competitive virtual experiences – 'travel', retail, gatherings and more – to take on new levels of meaning.

Featured innovation: Assassin's Creed offers guided tours of ancient Egypt

French games brand Ubisoft released a free in-game update for popular game Assassin’s Creed, allowing owners of the ‘Origins’ game version to access ‘Discovery Tour’ mode. In this mode, players can travel around the game’s world (which is set in ancient Egypt), and visit locations such as Alexandria, Memphis and Giza. The mode also features guided tours, allowing players to learn about the Great Pyramids, daily life in ancient Egypt and the reign of Cleopatra. 

How to apply this trend?

Don’t get hung up on the tech as you face a endless barrage of VR- and AR-powered experience pitches. While the tech is important, in the end it’s not about the tech at all but about deep human motivations. 

The bigger challenge: stop thinking about digital experiences just as tools or entertainment, and start thinking about them as platforms for status-accruing experiences. 

Once you’ve made that mindset shift, the possibilities are infinite. How will you create virtual experiences that consumers value – and want to share – as much as their real world experiences? 

2. SHOPSTREAMING

Back at the end of 2017, when we first wrote about this trend emerging in Asia, we said, “ two of Asia’s biggest digital waves - e-commerce and livestreaming - are merging. This is spelling out the next direction for both online shopping and social connections: interactive, experiential, and in real time.” But the recent crisis has seen the Chinese livestreaming market grow even bigger and faster than it has over the past few years, and this heady mix of entertainment, community and commerce will raise ecommerce expectations going forwards, on a global scale.

Featured innovation: Taobao uses livestreams to help boost income of Chinese farmers

Starting in April 2019, China-based online shopping site Taobao will allow farmers from across the country to host their own live streams in an effort to help boost their income. The initiative hopes to increase their earnings by around RMB 10,000 (USD 1,487) a month by promoting their hard-to-sell products. A similar scheme was watched by over 400 million people in 2018. Taobao also plans to launch a series of television shows around the topic.

How to apply this trend?

Amazon’s functional design and relentless focus on choice and convenience have come to define customer expectations as to what online commerce is about in the ‘West’. But the next generation of digital commerce will be radically different. More engaging, more immersive, and more social. Yes, it’s almost like the offline malls of yesteryear ;) 

Your challenge: could you create an online shopping environment where people come just to hang out and chat?  

3. VIRTUAL COMPANIONS

This has been one of our most eye-opening and controversial trends since we first spotted it a couple of years ago. Quite simply, as people become accustomed to digital assistants and chatbots their expectations will evolve, and some people (no, not all!) will start to seek out virtual personalities that have the power to entertain, educate, befriend and heal. The crisis will see people turning to these virtual companions, and once the genie is out of the bottle, these behaviors to persist once the crisis subsides.

Featured innovation: Samsung launches virtual beings at CES 2020

January 2020 saw Samsung introduce Neon: virtual beings that look and behave like humans, and can demonstrate emotion and intelligence. The avatars, which were unveiled at CES, are intended to work alongside people, sharing experiences and teaching skills rather than simply supplying data and information. Powered by proprietary technology CORE R3 (‘reality, real time, and responsiveness’), the project remains under development with a beta version expected later in 2020.

How to apply this trend?

It would be easy to look at Samsung’s Neon and dismiss this trend as a Black Mirror episode come to life. But it would also be a big mistake. Need more evidence? Witness the delight in reviews for the ‘AI friend' Replika. Those are real (not virtual) feelings.

Not every brand needs to offer people virtual companionship. That would be weird. And creepy. But if you’re a brand who people would welcome some companionship from, then this trend represents an exciting challenge for you: what personality should your VIRTUAL COMPANION have? 

4. AMBIENT WELLNESS 

Right now, people are obsessively reaching for their hand sanitizer as they move through their daily lives. But as this moment starts to pass, they’ll revert to less hygienic habits, although their desire to remain safe and well will be stronger than ever. Which will create a huge opportunity: for providers of physical spaces to embed health-boosting measures into the very spaces that their customers pass through, making staying healthy effortless.

Featured innovation: Stella McCartney launches 'clean air' flagship

June 2018 saw Stella McCartney open a flagship London store, featuring an air filtration system. The luxury fashion designer’s Bond Street store includes an air filtration system which removes 95% of all airborne pollutants and traffic fumes. The clean air flagship store is designed to raise awareness of the problem of air pollution.

How to apply this trend?

Hand hygiene is front of mind for people today. But think expansively about how your customers interact with your physical spaces, and the impact those spaces have on all aspects of their physical and mental wellbeing.

Where are there opportunities to alleviate any negative impacts, or better yet, offer health boosting measures within the environments that your customers pass through?

5. M2P (MENTOR TO PROTéGé)

Liquid online social connection, meet the very human desire for self-improvement. Yes, people will spend mindless hours online. But many of them will also yearn to use some of that time productively, and so will embrace platforms that connect them with teachers, experts and mentors in their quest to learn new skills. 

Featured innovation: Duolingo partners with Twitch to offer language learning gaming streams

Language learning platform Duolingo partnered with videogame live streaming platform Twitch to launch the Duolingo Verified Streamer program in July 2019. The 12 multilingual streamers are part of Duolingo’s Global Ambassador program and while not language experts or teachers, each is multilingual or learning a second language. They offer streams in Twitch chat on various topics, allowing viewers to practice their chosen language.

How to apply this trend?

Obviously skill-focused organizations and services will be a natural fit for this trend. But any business with an online platform or community could experiment with weaving a self-improvement strand through their offering. Just see how videogame platform Twitch offered its viewers a chance to brush up on their language skills! Ask yourself, what skills would our community be interested in developing? 

What now?

Some of the trends might feel challenging or far removed from your current offering or business model. But the world has changed. Your organization will have to change.

We hope you use these trends to draw actionable insights about how the expectations of your customers will be changing, and also to inspire trend-driven innovations of your own.

Good luck & stay safe!

You can read Part 2 here.

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I've worked with over 100 organisations all around the world, inspiring and empowering them to seize emerging opportunities. Get in touch if you want to discuss how you can unlock new perspectives at this pivotal moment.

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