After Nice, the Politics Get Ugly
Last night’s attack in Nice is first and foremost a human tragedy, but politics does not stop for mourning. What we see in France now is very different than what we saw after the two rounds of attacks in Paris last year. Then, everyone rallied around the flag, and President Francois Hollande saw a significant bump in his approval ratings. Now, with an election on the horizon, Hollande is seen as dangerously out of touch.
Marine le Pen, the far-right candidate of the French National Front, has already been polling in the mid-20s and will likely see a pop in support. She misstepped politically after last year’s violence, but will likely be very vocal now, to much greater effect. She has called for detentions of anyone suspected of connections to terrorist activities. It is not a good time to be Muslim in France. Hollande will be weakened further and the country dangerously divided.
All this will have consequences beyond the polls. The intense focus on security will make it that much harder for France’s leadership to address fiscal austerity and meet their budgetary goals. Long-term, their credit ratings may suffer. In the nearer term, this type of terrorism is having an enormous impact France’s key tourism sector, and it dampens on consumer sentiment, as going out to movies and restaurants become seen as personal risks. And with the violence coming on Bastille Day, this may have a greater impact on France’s cultural sensibilities and on the larger identity of their country.
More broadly in Europe, the violence feeds into the greater sense of unease that prompted Britain’s vote in favor of Brexit. The Leave campaign won in part by playing on fears of Islamism and migratory pressures, all of which were effectively conflated by Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Johnson is now Britain’s foreign secretary, while Farage is headed to the US Republican National Convention. Europe’s frazzled nerves aren’t likely to get a break any time soon.
Ian Bremmer is president of Eurasia Group, foreign affairs columnist at TIME and Global Research Professor at New York University. You can also follow him on Twitter and Facebook.
Will: 50 Years’ Experience and Optimism about Law
8 年The politics do not get ugly so much as realistic. Nice shows guns are not an issue so lets end the attack on our Second Amendment rights. We also need leaders who show strength in the face of Islamic international terrorism, not those who shrink from true evil.
Professional
8 年People call Hillary crooked and a liar just for following the rule of the law in the Supreme Court ruling Citizen United and the Republicans cant stand a Democrat using there own rule book?
English Teacher / Tutor in English
8 年Chris Richard - I couldn't seem to find your response to comment on, so I wasn't able to fully read it. All I would say it that the only fair way that I could even begin to comment on so call Islamic Terrorism, would be to examine all the news reports on each individual occurence. Even then I could not presume that the media is reliable and not very biased and untrustworthy. It pays to be a sceptic and a critical thinker when reading the news.
Writer full time.
8 年We didn't have "terrorism" until Bush invaded Iraq. The more we meddle, the more fallout. We can send troops from now to forever, trying to control the Middle East. And more of our people come back in body bags.
CEO, Technology Investment Fund
8 年What happened in Nice has no impact on 99.99% of the 7 billion people living on this planet. If you think it does, call your boss tomorrow and tell him you're not coming to work because you're taking the day off to mourn for people who were killed in a city on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean 4,000 miles away. While you're at it, call your bank and tell them you're not paying next month's mortgage because you're just too depressed with all the violence that's going on in the world. Although what happened last Thursday is tragic, life goes on and the rest of us do what we can to get through it.