After Nasrallah, what happens next in the Middle East?

When Israel announced it had killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah at 11 a.m. local time on Saturday, the news was dismissed by many Lebanese as propaganda. But “all hell broke loose” when Hezbollah confirmed the death at 2:30 p.m., according to Stefanie Glinski, who filed a dispatch from Beirut. “Across the city, people ran into the streets, firing gunshots into the sky—some in celebration, others in anger, seeking revenge,” she wrote.?

In Nasrallah’s 32 years of leadership, writes Thanassis Cambanis of Century International, “Hezbollah proved to be Israel’s most effective adversary ever.” Still, Cambanis notes that Hezbollah’s resistance was never about solidarity or self-determination. In the late Nasrallah period, Hezbollah developed a “complacent decadence, corruption, and preoccupation with amassing wealth.” If you read one thing about Nasrallah’s complicated legacy, make it this piece.

As for what happens next, Daniel Byman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies poses the key question: Can Israel kill its way to victory over Hezbollah? This is a high-risk strategy, Byman writes; history suggests that it is rare that such groups are defeated solely by the removal of a key leader—and sometimes, assassinations can even result in an escalation of international terrorism. But Byman also identifies some reasons why Hezbollah may yet seek a respite in the fighting. Read on for why Israel is rolling the dice, and rest assured FP will continue to bring you the analysis you need to make sense of events in the Middle East this week and beyond.—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

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Exercise Your Mind?

China test-launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Pacific Ocean on Wednesday. When was the last time it performed such a test in international waters??

A. 1980

B. 1990

C. 2000

D. 2010

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.?

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Answer: A. 1980. Chinese President Xi Jinping may have made a critical miscalculation by prioritizing military power over his country’s long-term growth, Jo Inge Bekkevold writes.