After Greeks Say "NO" What Happens Next? Four Scenarios + Contagion?

According to Deutsche Bank:

• N1 – Soft deal: The most unlikely scenario is that the euro-area partners offer a much softer programme to Greece.
• N2 – Default-and-stay: Moderately less unlikely is a scenario where Greece defaults but stays in the euro thanks to a direct recapitalisation of Greek banks by the euro-area partners, with the Greek government using only domestic resources for the country’s fiscal needs.
• N3 – New deal: The third scenario is one in which the rising economic and political cost of a closed banking system results in the Syriza government being replaced by a new government of national unity and a new deal with creditors being reached.
• N4 – Grexit: In our view, Grexit and Scenario N3 are the most likely – with about equal probabilities. That said, we see the probability of Grexit increasing the larger is the margin of victory of the NO vote. 
  
  [STOPS]
  
  ATCA 5000 Observations:  
  
  1. The Grexit crisis will precipitate massive political risk in regard to the inner working and survival of the European Union and not just the Eurozone.
  
  2. As and when global financial markets go into turmoil all scenario probabilities are likely to go into a state of flux because of significantly heightened uncertainties.  
  
  3.  The most significant development of the Grexit is likely to be contagion:  Financial Contagion Next: What Are The Consequences Of The Grexit?

[ENDS]