After the Fall, Who will Rise?

Following the recent events in Syria, many asked my opinion about the Future of Syria. Certainly, the situation on the ground is highly nuanced & we could write a piece on each one of the groups below. So this is but a high level view to prime great discussion & awareness.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria sent shockwaves through the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and Putin’s psyche. This seismic shift left many wondering: who stands to gain from this monumental change?

The Rebels & Syrian Opposition - The Syrian rebels & opposition forces obviously stand as immediate winners. After years of brutal conflict, their perseverance paid off. The fall of Assad marks a significant victory for groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham & the Syrian National Army, who fought tirelessly against the regime. Their success brings hope to millions of Syrians & opens the door for a potential new era of governance in the country and the region.

The Kurds – Often overlooked & kingmakers of many downfalls, the Kurds and particularly their Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), emerge as significant players in the post-Assad landscape. Having fought against both Assad's regime & extremist groups like ISIS, the Kurds demonstrate military prowess & resilience. The fall of Assad presents an opportunity for the Kurds to push for greater autonomy or even independence in northern Syria, reshaping the region's political map.

Turkey & NATO – Turkey gains a strategic advantage with Assad's downfall. Ankara long supported the Syrian opposition & provided significant military and logistical support. With Assad’s fall, Turkey increases its influence over Syria's future political landscape. However, Ankara must navigate the complex dynamics with the Kurds, whose aspirations for autonomy often conflict with Turkey's interests.

?? As a complicated if not complex member of NATO, Turkey's strengthened position in Syria hopefully strengthens the alliance. NATO can wield a stronger approach with an ally with intensifying influence in the Middle East, which can help in countering threats from extremist groups & stabilizing the region. Additionally, Turkey's ability to negotiate & collaborate with other regional actors strengthens NATO's strategic power in the Middle East.

Russia's Diminished Influence - Russia, a staunch ally of Assad, faces a significant blow. The regime's collapse severely diminishes Russia's influence in Syria and the region. Moscow now must negotiate with the new Syrian government over the unlikely future of its military bases and assets in the country [if there are any left after Israelis aggressive attacks]. This shift weakens Russia's foothold in the Middle East thus reducing its ability to project power in the region.

Iran's Loss - Iran, the other key ally of Assad, may be the most significant loser. The fall of the regime disrupts Tehran's dream of a strategic "Shia corridor," from Iran through Iraq, Syria, & Lebanon. This corridor is crucial for Iran's ability to support its allies, including Hezbollah. Without Assad, Iran's influence in Syria will wane possibly to zero, compromising its ability to project power in the region.

Israel's Strategic Gain - Israel, a consistent opponent of Assad's regime, gains a strategic advantage from the regime's collapse. For all the Russia and Iranian reason mentioned above, this shift provides Israel with a highly favorable security environment in the region which they’re certain to capitalize upon.

The United States & Western Allies – This is a huge win for America and its allies further demonstrating the strength of the post-WWII world order. ?The regime's collapse paves the way for a more stable & democratic Syria, with a solid chance of alignment with the West's long-term goals in the region. Additionally, the weakening of Russia and Iran's influence in Syria bolsters the West's strategic interests in the Middle East.

In Summary - The fall of Assad's regime changes the game for the Middle East. While the Syrian rebels & opposition forces celebrate their hard-won victory, the geopolitical landscape shifts dramatically. Turkey, Israel, the Kurds, NATO, and the United States emerge as stark winners, while concurrently serving a solid blow to the wicked ways Russia and Iran. The coming months will be crucial in determining how these changes play out and what the future holds for Syria and the broader region.