After A decade Of Training & Funding Niger's Military, What's Next For Canada In The Sahel?

The recent coup in Niger has brought to light a complex web of concerns that extend beyond its borders, encompassing neighboring West African nations and Western governments alike. Thecoup has drawn attention to the volatile state of the Sahel region, where violence and instability have become the norm. Mali and Burkina Faso, for instance, experienced coups in 2021 and 2022, resulting in heightened jihadist activity and strained relationships with Western security partners. Hopes for Niger to be an exception to this trend have been dashed due to its history of turmoil and a divided security apparatus.

Canada, the United States, and their NATO partners notably France, have invested considerable resources in Niger's security and development efforts, aimed at combating terrorism and managing migration. Despite facing various challenges, Niger's approach to counterterrorism stands out as more focused and balanced, offering a semblance of stability amid the Sahel's chaos. This has positioned Niger as a vital pillar in regional security strategies for NATO partners. However, the recent coup casts doubts on the country's future trajectory, raising broader concerns for the region and the international community.

The coup, which unfolded on July 26, 2023, resulted in the removal of Niger's democratically elected President, Mohamed Bazoum, and his government. This marks the seventh military takeover in the West & Central Africa region within a span of less than three years, a trend that has triggered unease among regional defense authorities and the African Union.

Responding to this crisis, defense leaders from West African nations have united to devise a comprehensive military action plan. This plan was set to be executed if the coup in Niger was not overturned by August 6, 2023. Recognizing the gravity of the situation, the international community has rallied behind the mediation efforts of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS Commission), aimed at restoring constitutional order in Niger.

Mélanie Joly , Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Hon. Ahmed Hussen, Canada's Minister of International Development announced the suspension of direct development assistance to the Government of Niger on Sunday, October 6th. This step is supposed signify Canada's resolute opposition to the coup, intended to exert "economic pressure" for the swift reinstatement of the democratically elected leadership. Notably, Canada did not suspend military funding and support for Niger's military.

Bilateral trade between Canada and Niger remains minimal, with trade valued at $18.4 million as of 2022. The foundation of Canada's relationship with Niger lies in the Counter-Terrorism Capacity Building Program (CTCBP), through which Canada provides security assistance to Niger. This initiative collaborates with partners to enhance institutional responses and community resilience against violent extremism. The program's focus on prevention and countermeasures is evident, with investment allocated for training, equipment provision, and technical support in Niger.

Additionally, Canada's Armed Forces have consistently supported Niger's military forces since 2013 under Operation NABERIUS. NABERIUS, a training mission in Niger, has significantly bolstered the capabilities of Nigerien military and security forces. The goal was to contribute to Canada's commitment to regional stability and countering terrorism, strengthening the regional framework.

Given the evolving situation in Niger, Global Affairs Canada | Affaires mondiales Canada must carefully assess the consequences of its support for West African militaries. Evaluating Canada's role is crucial for maintaining stability and peace while considering local governance and political dynamics.

These developments emphasize the need for Canada to carefully deliberate before endorsing an ECOWAS military intervention in Niger, in contrast to France's position. Such an intervention could potentially escalate destabilization within the region, given the support that the coup leaders have garnered from neighboring countries against foreign interference. Diplomatic solutions should remain a priority in addressing regional conflicts.

Shifting the focus, the possible transformation in Niger's relationship with Western nations gives rise to concerns about situations where countries turn to entities such as the Wagner Group for support subsequent to the expulsion of Western forces. These instances underscore the difficulties in effectively countering Russian influence in the West African region. The forthcoming publication will thoroughly examine the dynamics of Russia-Africa relations, as well as Canada's active efforts to counterbalance Russian influence across the continent.