AFTER ACAPULCO

The devastating impacts of Huracan Otis in Acapulco, a few days back, ?send a clear signal regarding the consequences of climate change and the imperative need to address its root causes but also to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable communities.

In the race to combat climate change, most of the attention and financial resources have been directed towards addressing the causes, specially through CO2 emissions reduction targets. The 197 countries which adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015, committed to stabilizing the increase of global temperature way bellow 2°C, and preferably at 1.5°C, by the end of the century to avoid a catastrophic interference with the climate system. However, the sum of emission reduction targets presented by these countries so far projects an increase of temperature in the range of 2.4°C a 2.6°C .

With a temperature increase of 1.2°C since the industrial revolution , we are already facing category 5 hurricanes which destroy coastal cities like Acapulco and also unprecedented heatwaves which brought death, droughts and the overload of Mexico’s national electric system last June . The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that a temperature increase in the range of 2°C a 3°C could cause over 50 million peoples displaced due to floods in costal areas, 4 additional moths of droughts a year, a 62% increase of impacted areas from wildfires and a rapid decrease of agricultural productivity among many other impacts .

Our civilization has been built taking for granted a range of local balances in which we pay the cost of adapting to immediate conditions to avoid the long-term risk of extreme climate change impacts. But with every fraction of additional global warming, we are breaking these balances.

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The problem is that our storm barriers, our cooling systems, the electric and water services, our communication infrastructure, our roads and bridges, our hotels and our houses are not designed for a climate that is rapidly changing. Our supply chains are vulnerable to natural disasters and political processes are shaped based on geographic coalitions that will dissolve as climate change drives massive migrations.

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It is estimated that Acapulco′s recovery will take between 2 to 4 years and will cost between $10 to $15 billion US dollars. The measures proposed by the government, the private sector and the civil society focus on restoring the infrastructure, the houses, the hotels, the economy, commerce, employment and services without specifying how that restauration will strengthen the resilience of Acapulco to future climate related impacts.?

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Even if the 1.5°C temperature target set in the Paris Agreement is met, inertial impacts for temperature increase will continue as it has been the case in all regions of the world. In this context, increasing investment in climate adaptation becomes fundamental to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable communities like Acapulco and other costal cities. According to UNEP, the annual investment in climate adaptation will need to be scaled up between 10 to 18 times in the current decade . Moreover, investing in adaptation is highly cost-effective. For instance, for each billion of dollars invested in preventing floodings in coastal cities, $14 billon dollars in damages can be avoided.

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When it comes to climate change, no insurance coverage will be sufficient. Mexico is a vulnerable country and Otti′s experience compels us to strengthen and accelerate our energy transition and climate adaption measures.

Article originally published in Grupo REFORMA :

https://www.reforma.com/despues-de-acapulco-2023-11-05/op259671?pc=102

Contact the author; [email protected]