Africa’s Summer of Elections
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Still keeping our eyes on elections in Africa, in this week’s newsletter, we look at other countries in Africa where elections are scheduled to be held this year.?
In Sierra Leone, the general elections—presidential, parliamentary and local council—are set for June 24. The incumbent President, Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP) is up against the main opposition candidate, Dr. Samura Kamara, who he defeated in a closely contested election five years ago. Bio entered office promising to curb public sector corruption and improve human capital development through a free and robust education program. He has been fairly successful, having managed to consolidate all government accounts into a single treasury account; a move that has addressed the theft of public funds and provided checks on public spending. ?Additionally, he set up the Anti-Corruption Commission to address issues of public sector corruption, an accomplishment that has been largely successful. The commission recently announced the recovery of Le 2 billion of public funds. On the education front, he has devoted 22 percent of public spending to education and human capital development to facilitate the implementation of his education program.
However, in the last 2 years, the economy has performed poorly. The country is ranked 181 out of 189 countries on the Human Development Index. Youth unemployment remains high at 50 percent, Inflation also remains a major issue with the significant increase in food and fuel prices threatening the livelihood of vulnerable households. ?This increased economic hardship triggered public protests back in August 2022.
Though Bio defeated Kamara back in 2018, his inability to address the frail and failing economy could tip the scale in Kamara’s favour this time around. Given Kamara’s reputation as a renowned economist and former finance minister who successfully oversaw the banking sector and public finance reforms under the former President, Dr. Ernest Bai Koroma, some analysts believe he is likely to win in the upcoming polls regardless of Bio’s incumbent advantage.
Gabon is also set to hold its presidential and legislative elections in August this year. The major candidates are incumbent president Ali Bongo Ondimba, who has ruled for the past fourteen years, and Sosthène Orphée Lendjedi Ibola of the Orientation Nouvelle (New Orientation) party. The election is already shaping up to be an unfair affair; Bongo has prevented opposition candidates from hosting rallies and has arrested opposition candidates under bogus claims of terrorism and corruption.
Bongo’s tenure has been marked by a failure to address Gabon’s economic problems, including high unemployment, poverty, and lack of access to basic services such as healthcare and education. ?While the oil-rich country has a high per capita income of USD8635—well above the regional average of USD1629 for Sub-Saharan African countries—one-third of the country’s 2.3 million citizens still live below the poverty line. Most of the country’s wealth still remains concentrated in the hands of the Bongo family, which has ruled the country for more than five decades. The arrest of his main opposition candidate and Bongo’s use of state machinery make him the ‘favorite’ ahead of the upcoming poll in August.
The Zimbabwean elections are also expected to be held in July or August of this year. A coalition of opposition parties has united under the Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) umbrella. Led by Nelson Chamisa, the CCC hopes to end the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front’s (ZANU-PF) 43-yearlong rule. ?As is all too familiar for most Zimbabweans, hyperinflation continues to be a major issue. ?The Inflation rate is currently 92.34 percent, and the exchange rate is ZWL$905 per USD. This has caused untold hardship to both businesses and households. Fifty percent of the country’s 16 million population live below the poverty line while the rate of unemployment is 90 percent. ?The worrying state of affairs has forced young Zimbabweans to flee the country; about one-fifth of the country's population has migrated to neighboring countries in Southern Africa.
The CCC has blamed ZANU-PF for poor economic policies, the looting of public funds, and the lack of transparency in the country’s diamond mines contracts as the chief reasons for the current economic milieu. In response, the youth-backed CCC has vowed to reform the mining sector and tackle gold smuggling and public sector corruption.
However, it remains very unlikely that ZANU-PF would lose in the coming elections given its use of state machinery and military powers to suppress political opposition—a strategy employed by the party since the time of former President Robert Mugabe. This includes political arrest, extra-judicial killings, intimidation and abduction of opposition candidates. Even the electoral commission has been accused by political experts of supporting the incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa who became president after winning the controversial 2018 elections which followed the military coup that ousted Mugabe in 2017. Given ZANU-PF'S strong control over the electioneering process and the military, it is likely that the incumbent party will still retain power, despite the public discontent with its shepherding of the country.
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In the News ?
We're also tracking the latest current events in the news, and how they may affect the decisions of policymakers. Below are some of the latest developments.?
Security | Last week, the United States announced a reward of up to $5 million for information leading to the capture of the leader of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamic State (IS)-affiliated militia primarily active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The militia has reportedly continued to carry out deadly attacks in eastern Congo, particularly in North Kivu and Ituri provinces.
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Security | M23 rebels clashed with DR Congo troops despite new regional ceasefire. Despite the announcement of a new ceasefire on March 3, fighting resumed this week between the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) army and the M23 on two fronts in the North Kivu province of the DRC, leaving several civilians dead and injured. ?On March 3, the Angolan presidency, designated by the African Union, announced a new timetable for the cessation of hostilities starting on March 7 with the cessation of fighting in the entire eastern region of the DRC. The newly announced ceasefire comes after the failure of all previous regional initiatives.
Food Security | Angola and France have launched a partnership in the agri-food sector. The partnership on agricultural and agri-food production was signed during President Emmanuel Macron's visit to Luanda, with the aim of developing links with the Lusophone country, particularly in the food industry and energy sectors.
Foreign Affairs | Burkina scraps 61-year-old military assistance deal with France. Burkina Faso has scrapped a 1961 agreement on military assistance with France. The agreement was forged between the then newly independent Republic of Upper Volta, as Burkina Faso used to be called, and its former colonial ruler. Following a demand to withdraw the French ambassador, the Burkinabe Foreign Ministry said the Sahelian nation was giving a one-month notice for the final departure of all French military personnel serving in Burkinabe military administrations.
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