African spaces: the new geopolitical frontlines

Global powers are increasingly scrambling to project influence in Africa, a continent that has in recent years gained new geopolitical centrality.

We explored the question of who these actors are in ‘African Strategies: European and global approaches towards sub-Saharan Africa’. Now, our latest Chaillot Paper ‘African Spaces’ asks the question: what are the emerging spaces where power competition is taking place in the African continent?

Where is the new scramble for Africa taking place?

Editor Giovanni Faleg and eleven contributors look at emerging geopolitical spaces, defined as areas in which power relations among external players, state and non-state actors are constructed. They explore how the dynamics between these actors are reflected in practices of competition or cooperation.

Space is not just a territory. It can encompass a broader range of ‘non-national’ and ‘non-territorial’ dimensions, such as cyberspace or a trade area, which have recently emerged at the forefront of geopolitics due to new information and communication technologies, economic and globalisation forces, as well as (real and virtual) social interactions. By moulding perceptions, new discourses and narratives can also reshape a space, which in turn influences countries’ foreign policies and strategies.

New frontlines of geopolitics

The objective of the report is to identify new priorities for strategic planning. Eight spaces have been selected based on their potential to transform African geopolitics, due to their impact on power relations in the continent.

They are divided into two categories:

• Geographical areas that have acquired new significance and gained geopolitical prominence.
• Functional spaces relating not to geography, but to activities, tasks or sectors occupying a central position in social and political systems.

Each chapter of the report analyses a space, explaining what is changing, why, how new power relations are unfolding and what policy steps need to be taken to mitigate geopolitical risks.

Geographical spaces that have gained geopolitical prominence in Africa

Sands: The regions North and South of the Sahara are being redefined as a space of connectivity, moving away from the conceptualisation of the Sahara Desert as a natural frontier akin to a ‘dried ocean’.

Oceans: Global rivalries are intensifying in two key geostrategic regional maritime spaces on opposing sides of Africa, which surround the continental landform: the Western Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Guinea.

Cities: Rapid urbanisation is putting cities at the centre of Africa’s geopolitical dynamics, due to social pressures, economic transformations and political mobilisation originating within urban centres.

Peripheries: Located on the margins of central state power and characterised as hybrid political and social orders, peripheries are key arenas of security dynamics due to the spread of violent conflicts, particularly the proliferation of Salafi-jihadist groups.

Non-physical areas where geopolitical dynamics are at play in Africa

Trade: Africa’s free trade area (AfCFTA) creates a continent-wide geopolitical space that reframes how governments, firms and citizens interact with one another in the economic sphere and influences how global partners engage with African countries.

Digital: Because of a growing online population, digital connectivity plays a key role in African countries’ economic and social development. Major powers contribute to shape the processes underpinning the transformation of the digital space in Africa.

Jobs: In a crowded African job market, with high unemployment and a large informal employment sector as a result of the continent’s ‘youth bulge’, geo-economic players are generating competitive dynamic to fulfil their strategic objectives. This is exacerbating the marginalisation of young people and social vulnerabilities.

Information: Regional and global powers compete to control Africa’s infosphere, the space where knowledge, information and narratives circulate. Some actors use ‘sharp power’ to manipulate information and influence citizens’ perceptions for geopolitical gains.

Connecting the dots

Fostering positive change within geographic and functional spaces can deliver stability outcomes, while keeping geopolitical rivalries in check and guarding against threats from predatory external players. Economic transformation, for instance, can contribute to mitigate threat circulation in the Sahara-Sahel spaces, address job market failures and boost trade integration, making African countries more resilient.??

The conclusion connects the dots between the different spaces, offering new guiding principles for a strategic relationship between the EU and African partners. It highlights the essential role of democratic and accountable African agency as the most powerful antidote against foreign interference, and the importance of inclusive and sustainable connectivity as an insurance policy against geopolitical fragmentation.

The volume concludes by calling on African and European decision-makers to recalibrate their partnership in a multipolar world, shaping geopolitics instead of being defined by it.

Read the full report

'African Spaces: The new geopolitical frontlines' was edited by Giovanni Faleg, with contributions from Eyob Balcha Gebremariam,?Fergus Kell,?Katariina Mustasilta,?Luigi Narbone,?Carlo Palleschi,?Patryk Pawlak,?Luca Raineri,?Jeanne Ramier,?Norman Sempijja,?Alex Vines and Sean Woolfrey.