The Africa we want Agenda 2063, Why it might be threats, weakness and opportunities.
For those who may start wondering what the hell this guy is talking about, let me start by saying, Africa can change and will change and lead the economic development. Africa has the capacity requirements to transform and initiate changes that will create wealth. There are predication that Africa by 2030 will have created a major volume of middle class citizens in which we might see a reduction in lower class( people living under US$ per day) McKinsey & Company Report 2012.
Back to my article, Agenda 2063 represents a transformative vision of the African Union (AU) to achieve “an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the global arena” (AUC 2014). In celebration of the 50th anniversary of the Organization of African Unity, African Heads of State and Government gathered in Addis Ababa in January 2015 at the AU Assembly’s 24th ordinary session to adopt Agenda 2063 as a collective charter to move the continent inexorably in the direction of enhanced growth and development over the next five decades. It is a charter that not only provides a vision but also a normative and strategic framework to transform the continent based on a programmatic agenda of five 10-year plans. This programmatic agenda is informed by seven aspirations:
- A prosperous Africa based on inclusive growth and sustainable development.
- An integrated continent politically united and based on the ideals of Pan-Africanism.
- An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law.
- A peaceful and secure Africa.
- Africa with strong cultural identity values and ethic.
- An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying especially on the potential of its youth and women.
- An Africa that is a strong and influential global player and partner.
Guided and inspired by these African aspirations, Africa can find practical expression in goals such as a high standard of living and quality of life, modern and liveable habitats, transformed and climate-resilient economies and jobs, and a modern agricultural sector. Challenges in political leadership, national sovereignty vs Pan Africanism need to be addressed and the old folks who harbour latent hatred and frustrations intending to revenge the former colonialists and at the same time enjoy the exclusive privilege of being in leadership, should be addressed by replacing the entire old folks with new innovative youthful leaders with no history of white supremacy legacy. There is also an emphasis on promoting democratic values, capable institutions and strong leadership, full gender equality and an empowered youth, as well as an Africa that no longer relies on aid but that can finance its own growth and development goals and objectives.
For us to get to these levels of achievement we need to address all the risks associated with regional integration. Africa should have a belief in itself and its people that we can make it and shape responses to development and countries and people can plan for a collective future and common destiny on the basis of the vision and programmatic logic of Agenda 2063.( ACBF Report 2016). We as Africa we still have complex dialectic that with Pan African responsiveness and responsibility problems of growth and economic development, will occur within an international context where the costs of policy failure, resource and material deficits, weak political leadership, and institutional paralysis are all magnified. Africa faces two risk factors—internal and external—which are probably could compromise Agenda 2063’s vision, transformation framework, and planning programme over the next five decades.
Besides other elements of force majeure (as with climate change and natural disasters), I strongly believe that there other many risk factors that are embedded and inherent to institutional and political organisational architectural features across Africa which negatively affect transformative leadership. There are colonial concessions that many governments of Africa signed with their colonial countries to maintain the colonial influences that prohibits self development and sustainability.
Country risk factors
Most countries though independent from the direct colonial countries are struggling with challenges within the nature of the post-colonial. After independence, post-colonial states in Africa were subjected to violence and volatility, compounded by negligent leadership & governance and accountability, the abuse of public resources, politicized ethnicity, and growing sectarian fault lines. A s a result many African countries, diversity in the economic, social, and political landscapes are higher risks and threats to peace and security.
- Competitive politics
Leaders in position are too political and formatted themselves in the former colonial leadership and rulership. Competitive politics and democratization have responded poorly to providing the integrative impulses necessary for managing diversities. Though there is notion of and acceptance of free and fair electoral processes not much promise of participatory and representative democracy has been achieved hence the continued volatility and political instability. By hook and crook, it has been observed though not documented that, there is a worrisome trend in which elections are used to establish and strengthen presiding incumbents’ hold on power, thus preventing generational transformative leadership changes in government through competitive politics. There is tendency towards power centralization as opposed to decentralization and expert management and leadership, thus authority has hindered the development of systems of local government that might otherwise enhance popular participation and better service delivery. In South Africa, mayors and other political leadership is selected by the central authorities and given to people to vote for. Check the recent Pretoria Mayoral candidate nominee. The risk is that Africa may be witnessing a slow return to forms of militarism, autocratic styles of leadership, patronage-based politics, and unconstitutional changes of government; Zimbabwe typical example.
2. Political violence
Madagascar, Lesotho, Mali, Egypt, Libya etc not mentioning South Sudan and most of the horn of Africa countries have had chronic political violence, at the risk level of becoming inordinately more complex. However Africa has shown tolerates and acceptance of state sovereignty which has lead to precipitous decline in interstate warfare over the past two decades. The risk of political violence arise from multiple sources: foreign sponsored regime change, internal conflict, post-conflict situations, political unrest and uprisings, violent state actions, terrorism and religious fundamentalism, the proliferation of weapons, and militant insurgencies. The destruction caused by such activities of political conflicts etc affects development and the resources required will have to be multiplied to ensure recovery and reconstruction of affected country infrastructure, the case of Libya. USA led invasion created so much national instability in its pursuit of democracy installation in Libya. Countries with low levels of development and human resources face severe risk of skills shortages in their labour forces, keeping productivity low and Zimbabwe is one country that has lost skills labour force to the world due to political internal instability.
3. Rural Urban Migration
People move towards urban centres for various reasons. While economic growth and a growing market of consumers were important in changing the fortunes of African countries, there were other unintended consequences such as rapid urbanization, with pressures on housing, employment, health, education, and transport, that many African countries will struggle to meet. There are more informal settlements around metropolitan centres or towns that South Africa local governments are failing to meet the demand and establish formal service delivery service. There is dramatic increase in the population of youth who are not employed and are not employable because of lack of skills or education and the risk is that they will face bleak futures of poverty, homelessness in many African states.
4. Other regional and continental risk factors
Borders are porous and people move from one country to another. Historically, tribes were divided and separated by national boundaries created by colonialism. After independence, most people and governments allowed free movements of African people across the borders without too much restrictions. The risks identified in a country’s axis are beyond the scope of a single country to resolve, and therefore regional integration is an important public good to be pursued with greater vigour. Economically, there is a major challenge to regional integration; well-known impediments include poor infrastructure and transport networks within and across regions; weak technological connectivity that increases transaction costs for goods and services; and the high expense of doing business across difficult boundaries with cumbersome customs procedures and regulations that inhibit intraregional trade.
There has been productive debates over definitions, strategies, diagnostics, and outcomes however there has not been evidence to confirm that legions of regional and Pan African resolutions and policy decisions find their way into national planning and development policies. While its can be an opportunity for multiple membership in Regional Economic Communities (RECs), this has increased loss of policy direction, coherence and different regional stimuli dictating the pace and sequence of integration.
While there is possibility of Continental Free Trade Area (CFTA) establishment in 2017, will this generate higher volumes of intraregional trade? In Southern Africa the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement between the EAC, SADC and COMESA holds great promise, however it might lack to catalyse the launch of the CFTA. In addition to this, is the poor
policy rationalization, harmonization of policies and programmes between the RECs and the AU, despite the 2007 adoption of a protocol to promote this.
As part of the Agenda 2063, there is structural transformation of the continent through the free movement of people, capital, goods and services through growing trade and investment among countries. At the recent AU Heads of State and Government Summit Kigali2016, the AU Passport was launched. Few countries are ready to issue or implement the resolution. If we as Africans have to move faster, we need to move beyond astronomical grand frameworks, conceptualizations, cumbersome planning matrices and allow for voluntary surrender or loss of national sovereignty to Pan Africanism. One army, one police, one monetary and federal judiciary system on the formats of the African tradition of chieftainship complimented by state independent judiciary. We will need a federal military, police, state security organ, and heads of states become representatives to the unified Africa of AU. A African President is elected by all the members states and should not be a sitting President. The same format of Dr. N Zuma Dlamini (AUC Chairperson being the President of AU).
We have all the infrastructure in place currently and enough expertise and skills. A concerted effort is required to recapitalize African institutions such as the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the Development Bank of Southern Africa; to put in place internal and external alternative forms of development finance; and tackle illicit financial flows from the continent. Illicit financial flows are being aided by some old treaties and colonial concessions that allowed profits to be exported head offices of different multinational corporates. This is must be addressed. If these steps are not taken, there is a high risk that even hard projects identified in Agenda 2063’s first 10-year plan will not get off the ground. However, it was unlikely that Africa would get what it needed in terms of the PIDA requirements with emergence of BRICS Banks and Asia markets: US$68 billion for priority projects until 2020 and US$300 billion until 2040.
Again at the recent, AU launched an Africa’s peace and security fund. The degree to which Africa’s Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) is being institutionalized to secure better coordination, harmonization, and standard setting encapsulates the final set of opportunities and need more support from all member states. There is a memorandum of understanding on peace and security between the AU and the RECs was signed in 2008, APSA will need to be further developed within the AU member states architecture, designed and purposed to complete member state security rather than aid insecurity. While there seems to be a great measure of principled and normative agreement, there appears to be divergence in practice, especially on important matters such as respect for basic human rights and freedoms, the sanctity of human life, appropriate conflict prevention strategies, respect for democratic norms, good governance, and the rule of law. So Africa has to stand up to all this and discourage non African states to interfere on their former occupied colonies.
Again, AU member states still retain the ultimate authority and decision-making powers to intervene in grave matters, making AU less authoritative on internal matters. The failure of global governance is replicated in the urgent development challenges for Africa and its dependent and asymmetric relations with developed countries.
5. Technology
Africa has to work on its technological and scientific base by creating and establishing productive sectors capable of developing industry and promoting employment, since the continent is among the richest and best-endowed continents in natural resources. Tertiary and research institutions which has huge expertise and skills in scientific and technological innovation should be supported and financed to inspire innovation for regional and national socio-economic demands and cultural needs. There is need for Africa’s investment in building research and development capacity in science and technology.
6. Mitigation Strategies for Agenda 2063.
People are moving from one country to another country to levels where some have permanent residence and naturalization. Given this situation, the state should think critically for reviewing some state migration legislation with intend for integration process and thinking. For the most part, there is improvement in the quality of Africa’s political life, because of democratic reforms, political liberalization, growing constitutionalism, resurgent civil societies, multiparty elections, and the resurrection of legislatures.
7. Build state capacity for effective governance
This is the most difficult process given the current political and civic leadership and governance, as it should be to improving state capacity. This is a long-term process and the post-colonial pathologies will persist in many countries where the democratic promise is under threat. It is imperative that technical capacity to put in place policy and legislative frameworks that allow the private sector to flourish on the basis of stable macroeconomic foundations. The other imperative will be to strengthen the state’s extractive and taxation capacity to raise revenue and mobilize domestic sources for development and social welfare.
Without going into details a number of issues need to be addressed which includes among them is; building human and intellectual capital, focus on trade and industrial policy, make regional integration meaningful, develop African diplomatic capacity,