Africa in 2018: A case for optimism

As we enter a new year, a glance at the African continent suggests cautious optimism for what lies ahead. I think a little too much media focus tends to highlight the negative aspects of what’s happening in this vast and diverse region of 1.2 billion souls, and it’s important not to lose sight of its enormous potential beyond the simple exploitation of its natural resources.

Challenges certainly remain: Rwanda and Uganda have seen bitter disputes over electoral term limits and power more broadly; some states – such as the DRC, the Central African Republic, Somalia, and Libya – remain fragile, still affected by past or current violence and instability, and other insurgencies are ongoing, including Boko Haram in Nigeria, Islamic State-affiliated militants in Egypt’s Sinai, and Al-Qaeda-linked militants in Mali, to name a few. Underpinning these stability challenges are the enduring problems of corruption, common lack of transparency, and weak institutions, infrastructure and civil society that affect a number of African countries.

But none of these are inevitable or insurmountable problems. The habitually negative rhetoric that characterised views of sub-Saharan Africa in particular for many years ignored the fact that these are practical, rather than cultural issues that happen for a practical reason – often poverty, or the weak institutions that were left to govern peoples within hazily drawn boundaries after colonial powers withdrew – and not because of some form of endemic or unavoidable reality that is inherent to Africa.

Therefore practical solutions, given time and investment, can bear fruit. Democracy can take root: witness Ghana’s peaceful transition, and Tunisia’s evolution from an oligarchy into a democracy that can at least begin the work of responding to the wishes of its people; strong institutions can be a reality, and can keep the executive branch in check, as with South African courts’ fierce and crucial independence; former strongmen who did grievous harm to their own people, such as Liberia’s Charles Taylor, are not invincible.

Above all, economic growth and investment can and will unleash the vast potential inherent in the continent, beyond and apart from a simple resource boom. Think of mobile telephony: the application of technology and new infrastructure has allowed huge strides in productivity and efficiency, generating $150 billion in Africa in in 2015, with this proportion set to grow (source: GSMA); this is not only a matter of improving lives in the region, either, and provides a good illustration of how unleashing Africa’s potential will benefit many quarters – there is plainly huge commercial potential here. Just one more example out of many is the lack of rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. It’s not hard to argue that this is a serious constraint on economic growth and thus living standards, and it also requires enormous levels of investment to turn around, whether achieved through grid expansion or off-grid solutions; but the positive effects this would have on broader infrastructure and economic growth are potentially enormous, with all of the numerous knock-on effects that this could unlock. In an increasingly connected, globalised economy, stronger and richer markets can provide vast opportunities for outside investors as well as changing local living standards for the better.

This is not to deny that serious problems remain in all of these areas, or to urge any form of complacency in countries that have seen improvement. My point is simply that progress and betterment are demonstrably achievable, and that practical solutions, such as education and

economic development, could one day bring serious change across the entire continent if applied consistently. The fact that so much work remains to be done, or that things have undeniably gone backwards in some countries, is no reason to take our foot off the gas. We should continue to invest, engage, and encourage education, civil society and transparency. Progress cannot be magically achieved overnight – but imagine the economic and innovative potential that could one day be unleashed. That is to the benefit of everyone.