Afghanistan returns to the headlines

In this newsletter, FP’s executive editor, Amelia Lester, connects different stories to explore a theme in geopolitics.

The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack on a concert venue near Moscow that killed 137 people. American officials place the blame with the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), a branch from Afghanistan that carried out the suicide bombing at the international airport in Kabul in August 2021. While the Taliban have been fighting IS-K since U.S. withdrawal, largely preventing it from making strategic gains, the group’s resurgence internationally suggests what happens within Afghanistan’s borders rarely stays there.

?In fact, “much as it did before masterminding the 9/11 attacks,” FP’s Lynne O’Donnell writes that a different terrorist group—al Qaeda—is using plundered resource wealth from the Taliban to run militant training camps and boost the coffers of affiliated jihadi groups worldwide. A copy of a recent report by a private, London-based threat analysis firm and provided to O’Donnell suggests that al Qaeda is “raking in tens of millions of dollars a week from gold mines” in Afghanistan’s north, which are protected by warlords friendly to the Taliban. For Western governments pondering a closer relationship with the Taliban or even diplomatic recognition, the report sounds a warning that the group remains one of the prime sponsors of terrorism worldwide.

Another full-circle moment came a week ago in Russia, when state election officials reported 87 percent of voters had opted for Vladimir Putin in the national elections. “Not only were many of the reported election numbers mathematically impossible ,” writes the Atlantic Council’s Adrian Karatnycky, “but there was also no longer much of a choice: All prominent opposition figures had been either murdered , imprisoned , or exiled .” In “Russia Is Back to the Stalinist Future ,” Karatnycky argues that Russia’s return to Soviet practice goes far beyond elections—and that Putin now resembles Joseph Stalin more closely than any other Soviet or Russian leader. Meeting the threat Putin poses, Karatnycky writes, “will require as much consistency and as deep a commitment as when the West faced down Stalin’s Soviet Union at the height of the Cold War.”—Amelia Lester

P.S. A note from our partners: The world’s largest ideas and music festival HowTheLightGetsIn returns to Hay-on-Wye from May 24 to 27 and will feature a stellar line-up of Nobel Prize winners and global thought leaders, alongside a host of award-winning musicians and comedians. Check out the festival’s newly released program ?and don’t?miss out on an exclusive 30% off tickets with code FPH30. Can’t attend in person? Don’t worry. The festivals online platform IAI.TV ?has a wealth of festival content to enjoy.?Check out all their live debates and talks here.

FP Live

The Moscow Concert Attack and the Threat of ISIS

March 26 | 11 a.m. ET

On Friday, March 22, four armed gunmen carried out an attack on a suburban concert venue in Moscow, killing at least 137 people. It was one of the worst terrorist attacks in Russia in decades. U.S. officials said the atrocity was the work of the Islamic State-Khorasan, or IS-K. Why did IS-K pick Russia as a target? What might its attack mean for terrorism globally? What other groups, such as al Qaeda and Hamas, represent major global threats? Join FP Live for a discussion with Colin P. Clarke, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center and a regular contributor to Foreign Policy. Register now .

Richard Haass on Foreign Policy in an Election Year

On Demand

As U.S. President Joe Biden increasingly turns his attention to the campaign trail, how will two major conflicts in Europe and the Middle East play into his foreign policy? How much will the White House adjust its thinking based on public opinion? Richard Haass is a former head of the State Department’s policy-planning team and led the Council on Foreign Relations for two decades. He joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a wide-ranging conversation about Biden’s foreign policy. Watch the conversation now, or read the edited transcript.?

The View From the Middle East

On Demand

While the White House has begun to shift its rhetoric on Israel and the unfolding humanitarian crisis in Gaza, perceptions of the United States in the Middle East are declining. According to Mina Al-Oraibi, the editor in chief of a top daily UAE newspaper, the National, this is the lowest point for U.S. policy in the Middle East this century. She joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal to discuss how the conflict looks from her vantage point in Abu Dhabi. Watch the conversation now, or read the edited transcript.

New and Noteworthy

• A Strategic Liability: From Israel’s formation in 1948, American support for the state has been a constant part of the U.S. Middle East policy. Yet the Israeli response to Hamas’s attack on Oct. 7 has escalated to a historic and deadly scale—and the status quo has remained untouched. “It’s past time for a fundamental reevaluation of the U.S.-Israel relationship,” Jon Hoffman argues , as the merit of remaining in “this unidirectional relationship remains unclear.”?
• Make a Living, Not War: Domestic tensions in China have altered the public sentiment toward Taiwan, Tao Wang argues . Just a few years ago, every general election in Taiwan would be met with a “wave of pro-war fever” in favor of political unification. Now, the recent Taiwan elections “triggered a flood of complaints” arising from dissatisfaction with China’s economic slowdown.
• Moldova’s Fate: Before the war in Ukraine broke out in 2022, Moldova had a fragmented landscape of political aspirations, from “greater Romanian nationalism to Soviet nostalgia, from pro-Russia patriotism to civic pride in an independent, EU-embedded Moldova.” Now, the future of the former Soviet republic is unclear. “If there’s one thing that just about all of Moldova’s peoples agree upon, regardless of political ideology, it is that they have next to no agency to affect the fate of their country,” Paul Hockenos writes .?

Exercise Your Mind

The United Nations General Assembly unanimously agreed on Thursday to pass a resolution concerning what issue?

(A) Preventing human rights abuses

(B) Artificial intelligence

(C) Native languages preservation

(D) Regulations around cybercrime

You can find the answer to this question and learn more at the end of this email.

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• The AI Era of Intelligence: On March 28, join Foreign Policy and the Special Competitive Studies Project for the final installment in a six-part series on the future of artificial intelligence. Examine how intelligence organizations and officers are adapting to a new age of information and explore a technology-centered strategic approach to enable decisive offensive strategies and advanced defensive capabilities.?
• Ensuring Equity for Women: On the heels of the 68th Commission on the Status of Women concluding in New York City, and before the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., join Foreign Policy for the 6th annual Her Power Summit . Hear from policymakers, innovators, and business leaders as they bridge the conversation on how elevating women is vital for growth, peace, and security at this free event, in-person or virtual.

Answer: B. Artificial intelligence. The resolution included language ensuring that AI systems comply with human rights, but the U.N.’s lack of enforcement mechanisms may dilute the measure’s impact, FP’s Rishi Iyengar reports.