The Afghan Graveyard: Today, America’s Might and President. Tomorrow, China’s Haughtiness and Greed.

US President Joe Biden will not express any regret for the chaotic withdrawal of the US forces from Afghanistan and will never admit that he has erred and miscalculated. This is today. However, the resurgence of Al-Qaeda and ISIS as a result of the Taliban’s crushing victory could force Joe Biden later to admit that his confused decisions in Afghanistan were the worst possible investment in US national security and international security, especially if these terror groups knock on America’s doors as they probably intend. Indeed, the Biden administration rushed to the exit door in Afghanistan without an exit strategy and post-exit strategy, bearing in mind that the US intelligence community had warned of a rapid collapse of the Afghan army, which had 300,000 soldiers trained by the Americans over many years. In a matter of days, these Afghan forces retreated before the Taliban’s advance, leaving them huge quantities of ammunition and advanced military equipment. Eyes are now on Iraq, where there are fears a similar departure of US forces could bring about a terrifying outcome for Iraq, causing war between ISIS and Popular Mobilization Forces militias controlled by the IRGC in Iran. Libya is also susceptible to further collapse, leading to the respawning of terror groups that have come in from Syria with international enablement. Today, the biggest threat following the fall of Afghanistan into the Taliban’s hands is the opening this momentous development creates for terrorist groups to regroup, reinvent themselves and relaunch their projects beyond Afghanistan’s borders. The Taliban has declared itself not responsible for these groups, which have promised to leave Afghanistan’s affairs for the Taliban in return for being given freedom of operation for attacks outside of Afghanistan. Despite this, Russia, China, and Iran have since rushed to seek deals and insurance policies from the Taliban. US foreign policy in the meantime is scrambling between the preoccupation of the administration with striking a nuclear deal with Iran at any cost, and the delivery of electoral promises to withdraw US troops from the ‘wars of others’ at any cost. For their part, the European powers continue to be panicked by the prospect of refugee waves, responding only with superficial theories without serious plans of action. As for the Arab countries, they remain torn and discordant as ever, some the victim of their regimes, others the victims of Iranian, Turkish, Israeli, and Jihadi schemes. A And amid all this, they are trying to protect themselves from the fallout of the Afghan crisis.

The Taliban ‘movement’ is now the Taliban ‘government’. With only 75,000 fighters, the Taliban won a war against a nuclear-armed superpower that spent over $3 trillion in two decades, yet failed to build a state, institutions, and democracy in the country it occupied. It is absolutely true that Afghanistan is America’s second Vietnam. It shall forever remain a stain on the prestige of Washington and its NATO allies, and the repercussions of this pivotal moment in Afghanistan will be regional and global in their dimensions.

Iran is not celebrating the return of the Taliban, but it is revelling in the failure and humiliation of the United States. It has established contacts with the Taliban, although the pillars of the regime in Tehran remain divided about this. Iran has engaged the Taliban seeking to address the issue of refugees and border security, but what Iran ultimately wants is to contain the threat of ISIS, al-Qaeda and similar groups and is ready to buy ‘insurance policies’ from the Taliban through certain kinds of deals. And the same goes for Russia, China, and other nations.

To be sure, Russia is also engaging the Taliban, ready to deal with the group as a political administration in Afghanistan, not just a militant group. The Kremlin is dealing with a sense of pragmatism that seems to have overcome the memories of the Soviet defeat in Afghanistan. But unlike the West which claims to be concerned about such matters, the Kremlin sees Afghanistan under the Taliban from a security lens, not a human rights or women’s rights one.

The Taliban has promised Russia not to make deals with al-Qaeda, ISIS or others to facilitate their operations outside of Afghanistan. But the Taliban has also made it clear to Russia and others it will not ask these groups to leave Afghan territory. There is an agreement from 2019 between Taliban and ISIS to coexist and cooperate. The Taliban is not keen to abolish these deals with groups that share similar religious and ideological beliefs.

The Taliban has declared it will govern on the basis of the Islamic Sharia, declaring Afghanistan an Islamic Emirate with some small ‘modernising touches’ in the beginning to give the world the impression its doctrine has changed. This has the goal of avoiding any economic embargo and invite other countries to recognize its rule. This requires some cosmetic measures but these will likely be limited to Kabul and will not go beyond paying some lip service to moderation to hide the real mindset of the Taliban.

For the Taliban right now, the priority is to uproot the current system of government, then rule on the basis of Sharia without any constitution or any mention of democracy. Women may not be subjected to corporal punishment except under court orders, which makes them part of the Taliban makeover, but women will have no rights except what an obscure interpretation of the Sharia will give them – that is, they will have no rights at all. Yet the West will not dare intervene again and invoke women’s or human rights, especially since the Taliban can now yield the weapon of refugees against the West.

The second priority is to forge accords with China for economic reasons, and work with Pakistan to get official recognition from as many states as possible.

Officially, foreign states will be watching one another to see who will first recognise the Taliban government and how the designation of the Taliban as a terrorist group at the UN Security Council can be overcome. But informally, many Western and Arab states are preparing to recognize the Taliban government, albeit are avoiding being the first to do it as long as possible.

Russia for example is ready to recognize the Taliban but cannot propose the idea of un-designating them at the Security Council given the political risks. The United States is not prepared at all to delist the Taliban. The Europeans may be eager about the idea, but they also fear to do so publicly, even though they are hinting at the inevitability of recognition. China began working with the Taliban before their victory and then expedited the collaboration afterwards. Pakistan is likely to be the first state to recognize the Taliban government, and everyone is waiting for that move.

The problem of peace and security in Afghanistan is not just dependent on the Taliban’s success in imposing law and order – in its usual violent way or any other way – in Afghanistan. The problem is that Afghanistan is today back to being a haven for terror groups, which was the reason the United States invaded and occupied the country 20 years ago after 9/11. In the past few months, thousands of ISIS fighters arrived in Afghanistan from Syria and Libya, with estimates suggesting up to 10,000 of now stationed in the country according to sources that closely track jihadist activities.

The Taliban may be able to stabilize Afghanistan but they are unwilling or unable to rein in al-Qaeda or ISIS. The deal between them is: Leave Afghanistan for the Taliban, and whatever happens outside the Afghan border is not the responsibility of the Taliban, who is unable or unwilling to control the border. And everyone is concerned by this.

Foremost of those concerned is China, but it sees the US withdrawal and the relationship with Pakistan an opportunity to spread its influence to Afghanistan and exploit its rich mineral resources. And China has the money to tempt the Taliban. China may thus see that its interests are best served by working with Pakistan to be the masters of the game in Afghanistan, counter rivals like India there, and build on the US retreat from the region.

But Afghanistan could become a graveyard for China, as it became a graveyard for Soviet and US might. This does not seem yet to dampen China’s hunger for mineral resources, the strategic lure of a central Asian foothold, and the opportunity to contain any bid by radical Islamic groups to destabilize the Sunni Muslim majority Uighur regions in China. In this it sees its relations with Iran and Pakistan a kind of a shield in Afghanistan.

The developments in Afghanistan could prove to be a graveyard for the Biden administration, not only because they exposed the short-sightedness of Biden’s team, but because of the possibility of luring terrorism back to US cities, something that former President George W. Bush in his arrogance thought he had eliminated by invading Afghanistan and Iraq. In that case, former President Donald Trump may benefit politically, despite having been the one who proposed pulling US troops from Afghanistan. To be fair however, Trump had conceived to do so gradually, not on a tight inflexible deadline as Joe Biden has done.

The idea of building an international coalition to fight terrorism has died with the fall of Afghanistan into the Taliban’s hands. True, President Biden has succeeded in escaping the Afghan quagmire, but the ‘how’ of this escape will bring many regrets to the administration and perhaps even haunt it back to the Afghan graveyard.