AEG 2024 ECONOMIC/BUSINESS OUTLOOK

Generally speaking the world is not and will never be the same again and 2024 will not be a turning point from that fact. Entrepreneurs, investors, institutions both public and private as well as the everyday people all have one thing in common today and that is to brace up for the new world as all indications point towards a faster paced global societies and faster-paced global economies in 2024.

Certainly 2024 hit the ground running having recorded from the very first month significant events within the political scene, world economy, finance and of course the entertainment scene. It was such a comic relief and a good dose of reality check on some celebrities' misdemeanours by the American renowned comedian Katt Williams. We had secretly wished most of his assertions were not true but sadly they were. At the political scene, Former US President Donald Trump is putting in a good fight for a deserved/undeserved comeback into the world’s most powerful office amidst an already overblown Russia/Ukraine war and the most recent Israel/Hamas crisis. President Joe Biden and Former President Donald Trump can’t be envied by many people right now.

It was shocking but at the same time absolutely not unexpected to see the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit the World Economic Forum to make some submissions regarding his country, his life and the lives of the citizens and residents of Ukraine in the continuously heated war against Russia. He had requested for more financial and non-financial support because winning or loosing, war will cost any country money. Whether it was a good decision for Ukraine to go to war with Russia or not is not a question fit for any forum right now however, the world wants people to stop dying in Ukraine, the world also wants people to stop dying in Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

The World Economic Forum(WEF) released The Global Risks Report 2024 with highlights on the degree of “False Information” i.e misinformation/disinformation ravaging the global society and by extension the global economy as a major issue that businesses and policymakers of this era have to deal with without any tolerance for na?veté. The threats posed by AI, general crimes wave as well as some tactically sound responses like strategy localization and cross-border coordination etc. Having said that, it is without any doubt that 2024 is a special and action-filled year and demands a different level of focus and intensity from all players especially global financial industry and regulators(Governments).

We maintain a bullish opinion of this year regardless of the alarming metrics and indices suggesting a high probability of a recession and even a global market crash. The International Monetary Fund(IMF) had in 2022 predicted a downward trend in global market growth to settle at 3% in 2024 however, the current realities says otherwise. It is not uncommon for international organizations and reputable firms to use the rule of thumb that when the world sees two consecutive quarters of negative Gross Domestic Product(GDP) growth it translates into a recession, while this approach may not be wrong, it does not perfectly encapsulate other vital factors necessary for consideration in a well defined analysis to make predictions fit for global application. For example, it is a fact that the world has never experienced anytime in history where all industries went totally flat, not even during the world wars when the weapon and arms industry skyrocketed in revenues and profits.

We have no doubt that 2024 will see the technology industry grow much more that previous years. It is estimated that by 2025 at least 85% of all global companies would have expanded multi-cloud access across many regions. Also 90% of Fortune 500 Companies will become fully digital services providers and this means that your regular banks will become technology companies that offer banking services and not just ordinary banks that offer digitally-driven services. This transformation has already happened in the transportation industry years ago with giants like Uber, Lyft etc which are primarily software companies offering taxi services and this means soonest, technological assets will be the most valuable assets of most companies of the future and they all spring forth in 2024. As seasoned entrepreneurs ourselves, we will not cease to make smart decisions of tilting towards investing in technological assets in the forms of building capabilities as well legacy systems that enhance service distribution without dropping quality.

Under-listed are a few fertile grounds for investments looking forward from 2024:

1. Passive investment into cloud based solutions: investment into stocks of listed companies that offer cloud based services will be a wonderful way to take part in this booming market however, more informed investors should consider buying equities of unlisted companies in this space, as that may be a far more rewarding option but also riskier than the listed ones. Invariably both are very high risk high returns opportunities.
2. AI: This innovation poses a huge competitive risk to humanity in it very self however, one cannot take away the relevance, value, possibilities and apparent easy of life it brings to us. Investment into this is surely an investment into the future because most AI companies may not become profitable until the 2030s. But their profitability may go on forever from then on.
3. Automobile software solutions: I have a strong belief that the automobile industry will become subscription based soon. With due credit to a renowned Nigerian professor and entrepreneur, Ndubuisi Ekekwe who sometime in 2021 had written an article about this topic of automobile manufacturers pricing error at inception. He had posited the subscription pricing model for vehicles buyers/users and with the advent of the 4 Largest electric vehicle companies by Market Capitalization Tesla, Li Auto, Rivian and VinFast driving towards the driverless car system suggesting a massive software capability which can easily propel the subscription pricing strategy in due course.
4. Protective equipment manufacturing: Health and safety is a wide spectrum business that touches almost every industry in the world and most especially the healthcare industry. With the world experiencing different kinds of breakouts of viruses and diseases, this industry will continue to make its stakeholders smile to the bank regardless of any moral perspective or opinion.
5. Training and Development: As the world continues to evolve and as technology continues to disrupt traditional work environment it becomes inevitable that most people will require re-skilling, up-skilling and? de-skilling.
6. Healthcare: This remains an essential part of our daily lives and niches in alternative medicine focusing on the use of herbal remedies is currently thriving and will continue to do so for as long as the orthodox medical practices remain static in its approach to delivering effective treatments to people in need.
7. Pharmaceuticals: This already has recorded huge successes since the past 3 decades and will continue for as long as orthodox medicine continues to dominate.
8. Remote workers management: As more businesses continue to become digitally driven, the major implication is that these companies become location-agnostic and that in simple term mean it will no longer matter where companies are physically based and neither will it matter where their employees are physically located therefore, any business that has special capacity whether by use of technology or simply a strong management skill to manage employees from wherever they are on this planet will be profitable.
9. Global recruitment: As global organizations continue their bullish trend in taking new territories, globalization sits at the heart of their strategy as well as localization. Companies with capacity to recruit professionals speaking different languages in different regions of the world will be profitable.
10. Charitable courses: Organizations that genuinely focus on distribution of resources from the rich and very rich to the poor of this world will thrive and this because of systemic failure of governments all over the world. As long as the world prefers to prioritize nuclear weapons at the expense of the welfare of people.

Small businesses for 2024

1. Sales: By now everyone should have agreed that sales is the one true skill all successful entrepreneurs have in common regardless of size. An investment into sales cannot be waste.
2. Content creation: In this new age, content is very important. As much as most professionals today consider social media as a beautiful distraction we all continue to use it to get our daily dose of fun, entertainment and laughter. Therefore, any business content well wrapped around fun and jokes will get views and views can be monetized.
3. Tutoring: Share your expertise in a particular subject or skill by tutoring or setting up a Masterclass. This can be a flexible way to earn additional income.
4. Online Coffee Shop: Sell coffee and related products online, utilising the high demand and varied market positioning opportunities.
5. Digital products reselling: This could be just white-labeling of trusted softwares(SaaS),
6. Virtual Administrative Support: Many Entrepreneurs initially starting out their business do not have the financial resources to employ full time assistant so,? working with a couple of startups founders or established professionals may do the magic.
7. Marketing Campaign: One good way is delivering email newsletter around a topic you’re knowledgeable about and monetise through sponsorships or subscriptions.
8. App Development: Develop and launch apps, either for consumer use or for businesses, such as those on the Shopify App Store.
9. Personal Fitness Training Services: Back in the day this type of business was not scalable but today with proper content creation and management you could get people to remotely subscribe to your social media page and follow your exercise routines and tailored workout plans.
10. Beauty Products Sales: Capitalise on the beauty industry by selling unique beauty products or beauty equipment.

Finally,

Dear Friends and Professional Colleagues, it is important to note that this is not an exhaustive analysis and a lot more can still be learned. This information is shared for a few knowledge of the business environment only, it is not intended to be a detailed business advice for anyone to solely rely upon for making financial and/or investment decisions.

Please speak to qualified professionals when making financial and/or investment decisions.

Wishing you all the best this year 2024.

Abayomi Michael Osho

CEO, Asset & Equity Group