ADVISORY: ATLANTIC & GULF COAST ORGANIZATIONS SHOULD START PREPARING FOR A VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON

RISKAlert-Weather ??# 1908? ??????????????????March 6, 2024???? ????????????????????????????

RISKAlerts and Premier Forecasting are advising organizations from the northern mid-Atlantic region to Florida, to the entire Gulf Coast to prepare for a very active tropical storm-hurricane season this summer and fall.? A period which forecasters say could rival the record-setting 30-storm season of 2020!

According to Weather Director, Larry Wilson, numerous signs suggest a challenging season for forecasters, emergency managers and public safety officials. “We are seeing a continuation of anomalously warm sea surface temperatures, which will only become warmer as summer nears,” according to Wilson.?

“We expect? a La Nina to develop by early summer and that will help create ideal conditions in the Atlantic for tropical cyclone development.? The last time we experienced a La Nina was the three-year period (2020, 2021, 2022) during which there was a total of 65 named storms in the Atlantic Basin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has not yet released its official tropical cyclone forecast for 2024. Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project, considered to be the finest non-governmental authority on tropical cyclones, will publish its outlook next month. But two groups – Tropical Storm Risk in the United Kingdom and WeatherBELL in the U.S. – have made early predictions that range from 20-30 named storms this season. ??Between nine and seventeen ?of these storms are forecast to become ?hurricanes, and? four?to nine are expected to become major hurricanes.

Wilson pointed out that one of the major concerns is the rate in which La Nina may develop. “The current El Nino is fading fast and is expected to be gone by mid-April. It will be followed by a neutral signal lasting perhaps as little as 60 days or so before La Nina becomes the dominant large-scale weather feature in the Northern Hemisphere. “That is a very fast transition,” Wilson said. “Seldom does anything good follow a rapid transition.”?

Another concern stemming from an early onset of La Nina is the chance of the tropical cyclone season also getting an early start, which could result in more frequent and stronger storms. ?Additionally, an early La Nina may affect the time and location of tropical systems, causing them to form earlier and farther east, which could increase the chances of landfalling storms along the U.S. East Coast.

The last part of that scenario bothers Wilson the most. “Nearly six out of 10 tropical storms or hurricanes impact locations along the Gulf Coast from northern Mexico to Florida,” he explained. “Of the four or so that make landfall along the Atlantic Coast, Florida receives the brunt because of its geography. Direct hits along the East Coast are not that common, because most storms tend to curve back out into the Atlantic before reaching the mainland.”

If more storms form early this season and a few do impact the Atlantic coastal areas, Wilson is concerned about preparedness and recovery resources. “Community emergency management personnel constantly conduct response drills ahead of the tropical storm season,” he said. “But residents and companies sometimes play the odds against a storm directly affecting them.

"It’s just human nature, but we try to convince parties that the peripheral damage from a strong tropical storm or hurricane can be almost as severe as a direct impact. Without a vetted, well-drilled emergency weather plan, your vulnerability exposure skyrockets.”

Several other factors suggest a busy tropical cyclone season: * Sea surface temperatures have been abnormally high for more than a year, even during the recent winter. Currently, The subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are expected to remain above average, creating favorable conditions for cyclonic development and intensification.

La Nina is likely to reduce the amount of wind shear over the subtropical Atlantic this season. This will permit more moisture to collect in the atmosphere and create a rich growth medium for storms in an area of the central Atlantic known as the Main Development Region (MDR). Based on the possibility of a storm impact along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: Here are some early preparations businesses can take to mitigate the effects of a tropical storm or hurricane and prevent extended downtime to operations:

1. Establish or review an emergency action plan that considers preparedness, warning, emergency response, facility shutdown or limited use, disaster event recovery and essential personnel. Communicate the plan to all employees and stakeholders; conduct drills and exercises to test effectiveness and perform post-exercise evaluations for the purpose of improving the plan.

2. ?Protect your workforce. Identify a location where employees can safely work if your facility is out-of-service. The most expedient alternative is telecommuting, which proved successful during the Coronavirus pandemic.

3. ?Back up critical data and create a secure pathway to remotely access needed information. Store copies of vital documents digitally or in a secure, fireproof container or in a secondary, offsite location that offers protection against severe weather conditions.

4. Review insurance coverage, including business interruption insurance, if applicable. Know what your policy covers and excludes and document your property and assets with photos or videos. Ensure that you have your insurance agent’s contact information and the appropriate forms for submitting damage reports.

5. Harden your facility against tropical cyclones and other forms of severe weather. Lessees should check with landlords to determine if the latter has some form of protection built into the leasing contract. Typically, Lessors fail to provide any type of protection beyond the minimum required by local statutes. Be certain to relocate valuable and hazardous materials to high ground or to a safe, off-site location. ?

6.? If possible, implement a backup power supply system such as generators, batteries or solar panels to maintain an uninterrupted flow of electricity to critical infrastructure.

7. ?In and around the landfall point of any significant tropical system, loss of electricity, communications failures, travel restrictions, supply-chain disruptions, etc. are virtual certainties. Businesses need to be prepared to adjust their strategies, products, services and pricing to cope with the emergency environment.

8. ?Finally, the impact of a severe weather event inevitably will have a negative effect on employees and customers. Businesses need to have the resiliency to manage these disadvantages in the aftermath of a major storm such as a hurricane. Ensure that the welfare of workers and customers is prioritized in your emergency response plan.

Wilson conceded that such preparation requires substantial effort and commitment, and that some of the above suggestions may exceed a company’s ability to implement. But he said that at least some of the preventive measures can be put into play before the tropical cyclone season officially begins on June 1. But he insists the impetus must be on starting preparations now. “Trying to patch together a response plan for an imminent and dangerous weather threat is not likely to be successful,” he said.

Wilson believes the odds favor an active storm season, especially in the second half. “Seasonal variability aside, all of the ingredients will be present for a challenging season,” Wilson said, adding that he hoped people will take precautions against the possibility of a damaging tropical system. He said he understood the reflexive instinct to avoid the commitment and expense of preparation, but “we need to prepare for the worst,” he said. “When the worst doesn’t happen, it’s a good day.”

For more detailed information and advice on preparing for the upcoming tropical cyclone season, visit:? www.ready.gov/hurricanes.

THANKS FOR READING????

Premier Forecasting Services, as an affiliate of Risk and Security LLC, provides services to meet the challenge of extreme weather, including customized Weather Services, Severe Weather Forecasts and Alerts, Long Range Forecasts and Weather Risk Assessments.? Ask about Custom Forecasts for Your Location!? For more up-to-date weather information: write:? Larry Wilson at [email protected]

For all other questions, write: [email protected]. We provide the best Active Shooter & Workplace Violence Risk Assessments, as well as Advanced Workplace Violence Training & Drills, as well as CMS ?All-Hazards Security Risk Assessments, AND Safety Inspections and OSHA Training.? ?Our solutions have been used by a wide variety of hospital & healthcare providers.? Used by Government Agencies, Universities, Schools, and General Engineering including warehouse operations, distribution centers and retail.?

We deliver high value personalized information and positive recommendations to reduce/eliminate these risks.? Our assessment and training and workshops are custom designed for your unique facility and current threat profile!?? ??????