Advanced Technology in Disaster Management

Nature’s fury is a lesson for all of us- to stay humble, express gratitude and enjoy every moment!

The horrific pictures of successive Earthquakes in Turkey and Syria and the everyday rising death toll is a grim reminder of nature’s fury!

As you read this article, at least 9000 people would have lost their lives as rescue operations are underway! In the current scenario, the Turkey citizens are also agitated because an "earthquake tax" was levied by the Turkish government in the wake of a massive quake in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people. The estimated 88bn lira ($4.6bn; ￡3.8bn) was meant to have been spent on disaster prevention and the development of emergency services. Let's hope the amount would be used to rebuild the battered economy.

Research shows that 336 natural disasters occur every year (almost 1 natural disaster per day). Moreover, 72,205 people die due to natural disasters annually.

It is baffling that in the technology-driven age, when we are busy finding and applauding alternatives to Petrol, Diesel car engines, developing Agricultural technology for increasing crop yield per hectare, creating virtual worlds or #metaverse or creating #digitaltwins of cities for immersive experiences, recognizing companies that achieve Unicorn status, we have conveniently forgotten the consequences of nature’s fury.

History of major natural disasters

Human history is rife with the occurrence of natural disasters. Who can forget the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 which was caused by a mega thrust earthquake measuring 9.3 on the Richter scale? This deadly #earthquake led to a #tsunami that caused destruction in 11 countries bordering the Indian Ocean. A total of 228,000 people were reportedly killed and millions were displaced.

• On January 12, 2010, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake hit Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and caused almost 3 lakh deaths.
• In Khudi, #nepal , a 7.8 magnitude earthquake led to 8,669 deaths and more than 5 lakh homes were destroyed.
• On March 11, 2011, a 9.0 magnitude quake hit Tohoku, #japan causing death of 15,893 people and collapse of 1.2 lakh properties!

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Predicting Disasters using Animal Activity

There have been a few initiatives to predict natural disasters. #china , Japan and #usa have carried out multi parametric regional studies to predict earthquake using the sensory abilities of animals in seismically active regions. Aquatic animals have higher electrical sensitivity than terrestrial animals due to high resistivity of air. There have been instances where Earthquakes have been successfully predicted and evacuations done in advance. This has led to avoidance of casualties but still it cannot be established as a highly reliable way of predicting earthquakes, as it requires more research and higher success rate.

1. In one instance, an Earthquake of magnitude 7.3 occurred in China in Feb 1975 and was predicted successfully in mid-December 1974. In December 1974, snakes came out of hibernation and froze on the surface of the Earth and a group of rats appeared. Furthermore, in first 3 days of February, unusual behavior of larger terrestrial animals such as cows, horses, dogs and pigs were reported. Authorities took note of such activities and initiated evacuation of city of Haicheng and prevented human casualties on a large scale.
2. In another instance, before the Edo earthquake in Japan in 1855, unusual behavior of Catfish was reported.
3. During the current natural calamity in Turkey and Syria also, abnormal behavior of birds and animals was observed. It has been reported that birds flew erratically above snow capped buildings and dogs were reportedly howling before the quake. However, due to lack of awareness or due to lack of scientific evidence, people could not comprehend the signals about the devastating earthquake.

Predicting Disasters using AI and ML

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), is playing an increasingly important role in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Right from forecasting of extreme events and the development of hazard maps to the detection of events in real time, the provision of situational awareness and support for decision making.

In Georgia, 联合国开发计划署 is creating a nation-wide Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (MHEWS) that requires accurate forecasts and hazard maps of hail and windstorms. The model deploys #ai and #ml to detect days with a high potential of severe convection resulting in hail or windstorms. This, in turn, helps reduce the exposure of communities, livelihoods and infrastructure to natural hazards.

Operation Risk Insight (ORI) is backed by IBM and applies Natural Language processing and ML to visualise and communicate natural hazards in real time thereby, smoothening decision making.?Consequently, IBM and several nongovernmental organizations (NGO) have partnered to provide Save the Children International , Good360 with customized #hurricane and storm alerts as well as layered data sets to generate map overlays to increase situational awareness.

In 1999, Odisha , which is prone to cyclones along its coastline, had witnessed death toll of 10,000 during the natural disaster. However, #odisha CM Naveen Patnaik set an example for the world by administering Disaster Risk Governance practices and by evacuating people along the coast before the #cyclone Phailin struck in 2013 and evacuated 7 lakh people before cyclone Yaas in May 2021. United Nations had also applauded his efforts and effective administration for Disaster Risk Reduction.

Conclusion

The above examples are very encouraging. However, as a civilization we have a long way to go if we wish to save our and our loved ones from natural disasters

Here I am residing in a city that has high seismicity as it comes under Zone IV. I cannot help but imagine what I would do if such a natural disaster were to strike Delhi! Do I and my family have anywhere to run, drive or hide? In the event of my being able to run to a safe land, would I have enough resources to feed my family?

I have always been curious towards finding a solution to problems posed by natural disasters. So, while I was in MICA, I completed my last year Dissertation on the topic ‘Dissemination of Information about Tsunami using Social Media’ under the guidance of Dr Arbind Sinha. The dissertation was warmly received and applauded. Later, in October 2013, I had completed an online course on Coursera on ‘Disaster Preparedness’ by University of Pittsburgh.

The highlight of the online course was the exercise at the end of the course. In the event of a disaster, we had to plan a Disaster kit and a disaster escape route for our family. I am sharing the exercise in this post and it is quite beneficial to you to plan ahead!

The above assignment was done way back in 2013 and varies from person to person in value and quantity. This is only meant to trigger the process and help you prepare!

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Sources:

https://safetymanagement.eku.edu/blog/when-disaster-strikes-technologys-role-in-disaster-aid-relief/

https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/artificial-intelligence-disaster-risk-reduction-opportunities-challenges-and

https://www.coursera.org/learn/disaster-preparedness/

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64566296/

#earthquakeinturkey