Advanced Clean Transportation Takeaways

ALL OF THE ABOVE NEEDED

While there are many attendees promoting specific technologies or fuels in their business portfolio most agree that it will take a broad range of technologies and alternative fuels to meet the needs of fleets. ?This is a different message than what we heard the last few years when there were more streamlined paths with 100% electrification and zero tailpipe emissions. There are still some zealots including ChargePoint President, Pasquale Romano, who was loud with his criticism of hydrogen’s role in the market. Amazon shared that they were working with electric and RNG alternatives to decrease emissions.?They stated that the electric fleets were going “well” with some challenges and that the RNG fleets were working “very well” citing good driver experiences. Hexagon Agility said there was a significant increase in visitors who wanted to talk about RNG.

FLEETS NEED FLEXIBILITY

Fleets are trying to understand their runway and how they are going to meet their company’s sustainability goals.?They are trying to figure out how to deploy new technologies that make sense operationally. A transit bus agency cannot simply double the amount of buses without doubling the size of their yard to accommodate additional parking. Start-ups and young companies are introducing new solutions like improved battery packs and liquid hydrogen.?Traditional participants in the fleet supply chain are moving forward with a broader range of options that include internal combustion engines and hybrid fuel usage. Fleets like Walmart are demonstrating their renewed interest in RNG with the new 15L Cummins engine they are testing.

HEAVY AND MEDIUM DUTY EVS ARE ON THE ROADS IN THE US AND AROUND THE WORLD

Battery electric heavy duty trucks are 3-5X the cost of diesel trucks but state and federal incentives are making it possible to invest in the trucks. Volvo has over 50% of the electric heavy duty market with 250 trucks deployed with ~475 truck registered.?Peterbilt has 50 with their customers.?BYD said they have 22,000 “electric engines” deployed globally including 200 in the U.S. Lion Electric has 950+ medium duty trucks deployed. Peterbilt highlighted that they have had success in different applications in different parts of the country including Alaska and Idaho, not just California. Drayage, public transport and last mile are leading the pack. Expect to see electric school buses from coast to coast.

EVS ARE NOT THE PROBLEM INFRASTRUCTURE IS

This was the theme of Hyliion President Thomas Healy’s presentation at the Ultra Clean Heavy Duty Transportation Summit (note the use of “ultra clean” instead of “zero emissions”).?He shared that batteries need to be 330% larger to provide the same power as a diesel truck.?That 10 heavy duty battery electric trucks consume as much power as 8,000 homes, 10 large hospitals or the super bowl on game day.?EV charging infrastructure is 1.5X the cost of the BEV semi trucks. ?Estimates for charging infrastructure in Texas is $30M for 10 trucks, $40M in California. The electric grid has only shifted 3% to renewables in the last 50 years. It takes ~10 years to build a power plant. U.S, Gain has a new redeployable off grid electric vehicle charging solution called Volt Vault that can stand in when infrastructure is not available. The CEO of Dana added that a single large passenger fueling and truck stop location in the future could need 40MW of power the equivalent of a large industrial park. ?

INFRASTRUCTURE PROBLEMS INCLUDE CHALLENGES WITH ELECTRIC UTILITIES

There were harsh words for utilities who are being challenged to meet the growing power needs for electrification.?Biagi Brothers shared that they could not get the cooperation or collaboration they would need to deploy electric trucks now.?Amazon identified working with the utilities as a major challenge with their new electric fleets. ?WM said their discussions with utilities have proved that they cannot get the amount of electricity they would need to do a large deployment now. ?

HYDROGEN HAS MOMENTUM

The Inflation Reduction Act and the desire for zero emissions long haul trucking has motivated vehicle and station development. Prices spiked to $25 kg in the last year due to natural gas prices and the war.?Electrolysis would eliminate the those impacts on the price of hydrogen and diversify supply. Paccar announced that after years of collaboration and testing with Toyota they are taking orders for Kenworth and Peterbilt fuel cell electric trucks with an estimated delivery date in 2025. Daimler is working on sub cooled liquid #hydrogen trucks with 90 kg fuel tanks. Nikola has a new partnership with Voltera to develop 50 hydrogen stations for their Hyla fueling brand. They are starting pilot projects in the next 6 months and expect to have 200 FCEV trucks deployed in 2024.?They are able to get positive TCO in California now with incentives.

BUNDLED TURNKEY SOLUTIONS ARE ONE WAY TO ADDRESS THE CHICKEN OR EGG PROBLEM

OEMs are promoting complete charging infrastructure turn key solutions with their electric vehicles and potentially shaking up the supply chain.?Lion Electric has a division called LionEnergy that provides this as well a training academy, grant writing assistance and financing partners. Ford CEO Ted Cannis shared that Ford needs to take responsibility for a broader part of the supply chain to ensure their electric trucks work for their customers. Leasing companies are trying a similar program including RyderElectric+ which offers leasing, charging and maintenance.

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