ADV Wind Onshore turbine power plant model (rev. 4) July 23, 2022
ADV Wind Onshore turbine power plant model (rev. 4) July 23, 2022
UPDATED July 23, 2022
To know more about wind energy, please click on the link below (pdf):
A quick user guide on how to use the 3 model versions may be found in the documents below.
The documents also show the tables that could not be displayed properly by LinkedIn:?
Yes, your energy technology expert has updated its advanced onshore wind turbine power plant from its current capability of 5 max years (60 max months) and 30 max years.
Here are the minimal starting inputs to develop your initial model, for further refinements as your study gets more up to date data:
construction period = 2 years x 12 = 24 months
operating period = 20 years (economic life)
gross capacity = 1.50 MW x 10 units = 15.00 MW
net capacity factor = % availability x % load factor x (1 - % own use)
= 54.26% x 95% x (1 – 3%) = 50.00%
fist year annual generation (net) = 15.00 x 365 x 24 x 50.00%
= 65,700 MWh/yr
Plant capacity degradation rate = 0.2% per year
Capital cost buildup inputs and % Local Cost (LC) composition: (table found in the doc file):
*** Table
all-in capital cost = 1,558 $/kW
total capital cost = 1,558 x 15.00 x 1,000 = 23,370,000USD
fixed O&M = 3% p.a. of total capital cost = 3%/yr x 23,370,000USD / (15.00 x 1,000 kW)
= 46.74 USD/kW/yr
variable O&M = 1% p.a. of total capital cost = 1% x 23,370,000USD / (65,700MWh)
= 3.56 USD/MWh
fixed G&A (general and admin costs) = (20,000 / 53 USD/mo) x 1.30 fringe x 13 mo/yr x 10 engineers = 63,770 USD/yr
biomass fuel cost = not used
biomass fuel energy to electricity efficiency = not used
plant heat rate = not used
GHV of biomass fuel = not used
Lube consumption = 5.4 g/kWh
Density of lube oil = 0.98 kg/L
Lube oil rate = (5.4 /1000) / (0.98 kg/L) = 0.0055 L/kWh
Lube oil cost = 200 PHP/L
Capital structure:
30% equity with 16.44% p.a. target IRR
70% debt with:
56% local debt = 10% p.a. interest, 10 years term,
44% foreign debt = 8% p.a. interest, 10 years term
local and foreign upfront financing fees = 2.0% one time
local and foreign commitment fees = 0.50% p.a. on undrawn loan
local and foreign loan grace period = 6 months
local and foreign loan debt service reserve (DSR) = 6 months
days receivables = 30 days
days payables = 30 days
days fuel inventory = 60 days
refurbishment (overhaul cost) = 10% of original cost, on the 10th year
salvage value = 10% of original cost
With Board of Investments (BOI) incentives tax regime (1 = none, 2 = BOI, 3 = PEZA): 2
income tax holiday (ITH) = 7
income tax rate after ITH = 10% of taxable income
property tax rate from COD for RE = 1.5% of 80% valuation of net book value (NBV) of properties (equipment, building), land is not depreciated while equipment and building are depreciated
depreciation rate = 1 / economic life = 1/20 per year
VAT on imported equipment = 12% (70% of which is recoverable on the 5th year)
Customs Duty on imported equipment = 0% (none)
Recovery rate of VAT =70% on 5th year after COD
LGU tax = 1% of last year's revenues
Gov't share (for RE projects) = 1% (for fossil and non-RE projects)
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ER 1-94 contribution = 0.01 PHP/kWh sold
Withholding tax on interest (foreign currency) = 10%
Gross receipts tax on interest (local currency) = 1%
Based Foreign Exchange Rate = 53.00 PHP/USD
Forward Fixed Exchange Rate = 53.00 PHP/USD
Inflation Rate:
Local CPI = 0.0% p.a. (OPEX) = 4.02% p.a. (CAPEX)
Foreign CPI = 0.0% p.a. (OPEX) = 2.0% p.a. (CAPEX)
With the above information and using the Discounted Cash Flow Internal Rate of Return (DCFIRR) method, you can determine the equity and project returns (IRR, NPV, PAYBACK, DSCR) and all financial ratios, show income and expense statement, balance sheet and cash flow.
It is now available too in 3 versions: deterministic (fixed inputs), sensitivity (varying set of inputs or scenario) and stochastic or probabilistic inputs (randomly changing set of inputs) that will help you as project developer to identify project risks.
Following are the results for Deterministic model:
% Local Component (funded by local debt) = 56%
% Foreign Component (funded by foreign debt) = 44%
Capital cost buildup results: (table found in the doc file):
*** Table
First year tariff (LCOE, LRMC) to hit target equity IRR = 3.91359 PHP/kWh
= 0.07284 USD/kWh (higher compared to the case with Battery Storage)
Levelized tariff (NPV of asset value / NPV of generation), discounted at pre-tax WACC
?= 3.89462PHP/kWh = 0.07348 USD/kWh
SRMC = 0.14936 PHP/kWh = 0.00367USD/kWh
Pre-tax WACC =11.60% p.a.?
After-tax WACC = 10.44% p.a.
WACC = (30% x 16.44% p.a.) + 70% (56% x 10% p.a. + 44% x 8% p.a.) = 11.31% p.a.
Equity IRR = 16.44% p.a.
Equity NPV = 0.0
Equity PAYBACK = 8.11 years
Project IRR = 13.75% p.a.
Project NPV = -145,174 ‘000 PHP
Project PAYBACK = 6.48 years
Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR) min = 1.10
Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR) ave = 1.05
Debt Service Cover Ratio (DSCR) max = 2.09
Benefits to Cost (B/C) Ratio, discounted at pre-tax WACC = 0.637 (lower than unity)
Financial Ratios (liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, efficiency ratios, profitability ratios, market prospect ratios) = see bottom of the Financials worksheet)
How to run the deterministic models:
Update first the blue inputs
Calibrate the model to meet the targets (run macro 2, ctrl + f):
a)????NCF target = 50.00%
b)????Local component of project cost target = 56% (44% foreign component)
c)?????All-in capital cost target = 1,558 $/kW
d)????Fixed O&M target = 46.74 $/kW/yr
e)????Variable O&M target = 3.56 $/MWh
f)??????Fixed G&A target = 63.77 ‘000 $/yr
g)????Set the project NPV (100% equity, 0% debt) to zero (run macro 3, ctrl + d)
h)????Set the equity NPV (30% equity, 70% debt) to zero (run macro 1, ctrl + e)
View the results:
a)????Inputs & Assumptions: shows all the inputs and the outputs summary so you will see immediately the impact 0f changing any input. It also shows the current values of the LCOE (levelized cost of energy) or LRMC (long run marginal cost = annualized capital and fixed costs + SRMC) and SRMC (short run marginal cost consisting of variable costs and fuel and lube costs)
b)????Tariff Breakdown
c)?????Sensitivity Analysis (copy paste value of each run into the case column)
d)????Construction Period (view the total investment cost breakdown, annual capital cost drawdown)
e)????Operating Period (view the annual operating data: capacity, generation, tariff, revenue, exchange rate, fuel cost, lube oil cost, fixed O&M cost, variable O&M cost, refurbishment or overhaul cost, G&A cost, land lease, land value, depreciation cost, net book value, property tax, LGU tax, gov’t share, ER 1-94 contribution, income tax, working capital or receivables, payables, inventory, input/output VAT, initial working capital and other assets, other assets like VAT recovery expense, foreign debt and local debt amortization tables)
f)??????Financials: (income & expense statement, retained earnings and capital, cash flow statement, required debt service reserve (DSR) balance, balance sheet, equity IRR and PAYBACK, project IRR and PAYBACK, debt service cover ratio (DSCR), benefits and costs analysis ratio, and other financial ratios like liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, efficiency ratios, profitability ratios and market prospect ratios)
g)????Asset Base FiT (calculates the NPV of total assets, annual generation and levelized cost using the pre-tax WACC as discounting rate)
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Marcial Ocampo
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