Adjusting Your Interviewing Approach Amid a Continued Economic Pullback
I'm no economist but as far as our labor markets are concerned, let's revisit a couple of time periods here.?
Dot.com bust:
The financial markets actually crashed in March/April of 2000 and I believe there is still a video clip of Jim Cramer on CNBC just shaking his head and acknowledging that the great tech run was over. However, I was still very busy at that time and for me, the hiring rush didn't end (and to be clear, it was a very abrupt end) until September of 2000. That was when the Austin startup labor market shut down. I had Halliburton and Enron to get me through August of 2001 but after that, tech hiring in Austin and Houston pretty much shut down for good.?
2008-2009 Great Recession:
Remember that the housing bubble in places like South Florida, Nevada burst as early as 2006. I remember some North Palm Beach, Florida realtors telling me that all of a sudden their phones stopped ringing. But here in Austin, even in 2008, hiring was still pretty active. I looked back at my deal sheet and I had done 37 hires, a combination of contingency and some contracts I had done. But come 2009, labor markets in Austin shut down. The first ripple of activity was November of 2009 when Bazaarvoice started hiring some Implementation Engineers. But from December of 2008 to December of 2009, Austin's labor market was dormant.?
I'm not trying to sound any alarms here but we need to look back and realize that 2021 was a bubble year. The valuations for companies like Peloton, Wayfair and Palantir were completely out of line. I'm serious when I say that did they really deserve the kind of valuations they had last summer??We're pulling back some and pretty much every week, I'm hearing about some startups layoffs as well. But to be clear, there are still a lot of firms hiring out there. But let's adjust our delivery and approach a little bit.?
The main focus for engineers in their job search since Fall of 2020 has been to break the bank; to secure an incredibly strong financial package. At first, these packages were put in front of engineers without them even asking for it but that later pivoted to deal with inflation which began spiraling out of control last year. But whatever the reason might be, I wanted to suggest pulling back a little on demanding these aggressive compensation packages. Last month, I worked with a sharp engineer who was unemployed and was hoping to find a new job very quickly (his startup employer closed their doors in March). At the same time, he also didn't want to take anything less than a 20% bump over his last salary.?Along with finding a stable employer, we both set our sights on securing a strong financial package. We were not going to make money the driving variable in his search but it was up there for sure. We're five weeks into his unemployment and no offers have come through. Here is a note that he sent me last night,?
Dang it Mark, another rejection. I'm getting very worried about this. I am still in the running at ***** but I'm getting worried. Can you send me over another list?
If you are about to start a new job search, take a moment to take inventory of your current sentiment and find a solid emotional foundation so that you can more easily digest a labor market that is now very different than what it was even 4 months ago. This candidate, who I like a lot, in the course of five weeks has gone from this ambitious effort to find a high flying startup with a package in the low 200's to now what is best described as panic mode. And every morning, waking up to news stories with titles such as "Preparing for the global repercussions of the Ukraine war" and "More Pain at the Pump" certainly isn't helping his mindset.?
So relative to what 2021 was like, let's digest this now. If you start a job search on May 16th, you won't have five offers by June 1st all for packages 35% more than you are currently making. I could be wrong but let's not go into a process with this kind of mindset. Remember, this time last year, Wayfair's stock was over 300/share and it will be around 52/share at the time of this posting. Whether we are headed for a Recession or not, as a software engineering applicant right now, please level set on expectations and here is the most humble mindset you can privately have for yourself,?
领英推荐
Well, in recessions, the labor markets are impacted last so I am possibly in a current environment where I could be a "Last hired/first fired" employee sometime in 2023...
My apologies if all of this is coming across as a bit negative but I'm just trying to sprinkle in a little caution going into the next 9-12 months. Carvana, Robinhood, Upstart Holdings and Palantir have all had layoffs in their engineering departments and the majority of their employees have stock options that are now under water. Compared to this time last year, there has already a big drop in valuations across the board. I'm saying all of this now so that you can level set and not experience any moments of panic like the engineer in this post is going through right now.?
I honestly don't know who originally said "This too shall pass" and it will. But given the labor markets lagged behind the dot.com bust as well as the Great Recession, there is the possibility we might be in the early stages of a pretty significant labor market pullback.?And if we are, let's pull back on the aggressive salary requirements immediately. Make your search 100% focused on finding a company where you would simply be happy walking in the door (virtually or otherwise) every day. Sentiment and employment satisfaction is going to mean a lot over the next couple of years so let's take advantage of it now.?
Thanks,?
Mark Cunningham
Technical Recruiter
512-699-5719
Independent Data Engineer [1099/C2C]
2 年Mark, as an independent, I'm curious what you saw during the DC and GFC fallouts for contractors. One argument I have with myself is that I should perhaps seek some out some form of security (ie FTE roles) before things get ugly. However I've also heard the argument that during downturns, some orgs may choose to layoff and flush out longer term operational commitments, and turn to Contractors for tactical endeavors. Which could mean my demand actually goes up. Curious your thoughts on what people like me should realistically expect, or its purely situational. (assume someone who is very good at their craft and is generally well networked across the country).
CTO at FairNow.ai
2 年This is pretty much spot on, funding rounds and valuations are also dropping, growth/hiring plans are being scaled back, so it comes down to supply and demand. The demand for talent is dropping due to changing economics, the supply increasing as layoffs occur. But it'll pass, dotcom was rough, but that some of the best/strongest companies are born out of those tough times.
Engineering Leader | Software Architecture; Real-Time Embedded; Cloud-Native Transformation; DevOps and SRE; Agile Transformation; Team Leadership/Mentorship; Vendor Management
2 年It is very insightful. Unfortunately, we have many talents joining the labor market in less than a decade and have not experienced an economic downturn.