Addressing Declining University Enrollments: Challenges and Strategic Responses

Overview of Enrollment Decline

The landscape of higher education in the United States has been marked by a persistent decline in college enrollments over the past decade. This trend reached a critical point in the fall of 2020, with a significant 4.2% drop attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic (National Student Clearinghouse Research Center). While many attributes this decline to various factors, Grand Canyon University (@GCU), an unknown brand less than 15 years ago, has become the largest private university in the world through innovation. Why? How?

Demographic Shifts

The demographic profile of college-aged individuals is changing, with a notable decrease in high school graduates, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest (Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education). Universities must invest in reaching middle school students to build their brands early. GCU developed valuable relationships with over 7,000 high schools, aiming to connect with high school freshmen to support them on their university or career paths. This early investment in a proven feeder-system is paying off. GCU had an edge as it was the only private university in Arizona, competing with three slow-moving state institutions (until Crow took over ASU), positioned with 100 acres dead center of Phoenix as the fastest growing city in America for 10-years in a row.

Rising Tuition Costs: Enemy #1

The increasing costs of #tuition and associated fees have become a formidable barrier for prospective students. Unfortunately, universities have no incentive to lower their tuition, leading to a rapid increase in tuition over the last 20 years. GCU has not increased its tuition in 16 years. A recent review of their website shows that $16,000 covers room, board, and all-you-can-eat tuition in brand-new facilities with leading experts from faculty, coaches, career advisors, and a food court better than the highest-end malls in America. This is why graduates from GCU graduate with the lowest amount of #student debt of any institution in America (@CollegeBoard). Think about that fact: $16,000 for everything for 16 years.

Alternative Education Paths

The traditional four-year degree pathway is no longer the sole option for post-secondary education. #Vocational training, online courses, and immediate entry into the #workforce are becoming increasingly popular alternatives (@InsideHigherEd). Driving around Maricopa County (Phoenix), one can see countless billboards, television, and radio ads, all focusing on one word: "Purpose". GCU was an early adopter of integrating skills-based programs from coding, electricians, robotics, plumbing, drone management, solar management, data science, pump management, welding, and so forth, with the same prestige of academic outcomes as traditional post-secondary degrees.

Impact of COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly accelerated the decline in enrollments. Many students deferred their studies or opted for gap years due to uncertainties and a preference for in-person learning experiences (Education Week). The pandemic highlighted the need for flexible learning options and robust online education infrastructure. GCU won as it had invested in perfecting online education from 2004, thus the “pandemic” created a boom for GCU.

Decline in International Students

Visa restrictions, geopolitical tensions, and competition from other countries have contributed to a decline in international student enrollments in U.S. universities (@InstituteofInternationalEducation). Our group believes that recruiting international students is one of the few growth opportunities available to universities today to increase overall enrollments if done properly. Programs like www.bettergrad.org help create cash-paying, overachieving international students to fill jobs in #technology, #healthcare, #manufacturing, and #teacher education.

Economic Factors

Economic recessions and fluctuating job market conditions play a critical role in enrollment trends. Financial pressures lead many students to enter the workforce sooner, prioritizing immediate income over long-term educational investments (@BureauofLaborStatistics). While GCU offers possibly the broadest program offering of any #university, it has always offered student a career focus based on their individual “Purpose”.

Perception of College Value

There is growing skepticism about the value of a college degree. Rising #tuition costs and questionable return on investment contribute to this perception, prompting students and families to question the overall benefits of higher education (@PewResearchCenter). Recent demonstrations on major institutions have almost been the last nail in the public opinion coffin for potential students. The university’s leadership not being able to manage these dangerous but vital protests is permanently destroying the best known brands in America.

Grand Canyon University has focused on delivering consistent promises of price, quality, and service for 16 years. And no protests because it is a like-minded community sharing the same values, a tribute to the leadership of GCU. GCU has its own “Purpose”. Every successful business depends on competitive #price, #quality, and #service. Today's university system offers none of the three. No add “Unsafe”. GCU has set a new standard.

Rural vs. Urban Disparities

Rural colleges face more pronounced enrollment challenges compared to their urban counterparts. Declining local populations and limited resources for outreach and support are significant hurdles for these institutions (Rural Higher Education Resource Center). GCU reaches these rural communities via its advanced online distribution.

Institutional Closures

Financial instability has led to the closure or merger of several small colleges, further damaging the perception of stability in the higher education sector (@TheHechingerReport). These closures underscore the need for sustainable financial and operational models within universities. We believe these closures are a direct result of a lack of innovation by their leadership. These closures continue to contribute to GCU’s success in enrollments.

Strategies for Increasing Enrollments

Focus on Demographic Changes

Understanding and adapting to demographic shifts is critical. Sharon Alston, former vice provost for undergraduate enrollment at American University, emphasized the importance of being mindful and intentional about demographic changes and focusing on the needs of diverse student groups (@USCRossier).

Economic Adaptations

In response to economic pressures, universities are seeking new revenue sources and funding mechanisms. Addressing financial challenges requires innovative approaches to tuition pricing and #financialaid (@UniversityBusiness). Most university CFO’s do not have the sophisticated skills to actual create detailed financial modelling for leadership, then they make decisions forensically rather than based on predictive analysis. No doubt one would get the same outcomes as playing darts to decide.

Our group offers #fractional #CFOs that really know how to guide a leadership team. We believe that most institutions can cut overall expenses by 40% without effecting performance. The next step to enhance performance is to let go of the bottom 5% of performing employees every month. Painful, but it works.

Enhancing Perceived Value

@Chris Gabrieli from the @HarvardGraduateSchoolofEducation highlighted the broader societal impacts of declining enrollments. Emphasizing the long-term benefits of higher education, such as economic growth and social mobility, can help counteract skepticism (Harvard Graduate School of Education).

We believe that brands mean less and less. That price, quality & service mean more. Harvard will evolve into a hedge fund. We predict its enrollments will be down by 25% next year. Their brand is very damaged by teaching everything but reading, writing and arithmetic. Would you hire a grad that is on record of desiring to kill a classmate?

Recruitment Innovations

Universities are adopting targeted recruitment strategies to attract a diverse student body. Lowering tuition, introducing new degree programs, and increasing hybrid learning opportunities are among the measures being implemented (@UniversityBusiness).

Our group is leveraging new #AI technologies to increase quality inquiry flows plus conversions. Our AI enrollment #agents out perform a human enrollment person by 10X or more at a fraction of the cost in any language/culture.

Equity and Diversity

The upcoming Supreme Court decision on race and admissions poses significant challenges for diversity initiatives. Enrollment leaders must prepare for potential impacts and continue to advocate for equity in admissions and financial aid policies (@USCRossier).

While cited this is issue by failing Enrollment Directors, we perceive this as an excuse for non-performance.

Retention Efforts

#Retention is as crucial as #recruitment. Creating inclusive and supportive campus environments that address the diverse needs of students is essential for improving retention rates and ensuring educational success (University Business).

First, GCU figured out that a normal student should get three credits for even making through the normal university enrollment process. This created innovation around a concept known internally as “Friction-Free Enrollment”.

Next, GCU figured out early that if it could move its Retention one percentage point it was, at that time, worth $10MM in Surplus cash. This meant shifting resources from the front-end Inquiry Generation to Retention which was at 37%. Once the leadership team innovated their thinking into a focus on “customer satisfaction” each enrollment became valuable at a lower acquisition cost.

Quotes from Enrollment Leaders

Illinois Online State University: Interim President Aondover Tarhule emphasized the university’s high-quality academic programs and commitment to student success as key factors in attracting students. Jana Albrecht, Associate Vice President for Enrollment Management, noted the university's welcoming environment and strong academic reputation (Illinois State University).

@University of Louisiana Monroe (ULM): Dr. Mark Arant credited the introduction of new and innovative programs and the hard work of the recruitment staff for enrollment increases. He underscored the relevance of a college degree and the university's commitment to meeting students' needs (University of Louisiana Monroe).

University of Wisconsin System: The 美国威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校 System reported a year-over-year increase in new freshman enrollment, attributed to targeted recruitment efforts and a focus on meeting the diverse needs of the student population (University of Wisconsin System).

General Trends: Amy Kurfist noted that pandemic-era recruitment techniques, including more targeted and demographic-specific strategies, are proving effective in increasing enrollments (Hanover Research).

These insights highlight the importance of strategic, data-driven approaches to address the complex challenges of declining university enrollments. University presidents and enrollment directors must continue to innovate and adapt to ensure the sustainability and success of their institutions.

Sources:

1. National Student Clearinghouse Research Center

2. Inside Higher Ed

3. Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education

4. National Center for Education Statistics

5. College Board

6. CNBC

7. Brookings Institution

8. Education Week

9. The Chronicle of Higher Education

10. NPR

11. Institute of International Education

12. The Washington Post

13. Bureau of Labor Statistics

14. Pew Research Center

15. Gallup

16. The Hechinger Report

17. Rural Higher Education Resource Center

18. USA Today

19. The Wall Street Journal

20. Forbes

21. Never ending flow of realworld GCU war stories from leadership.

IF you desire to explore increasing your enrollments contact me: [email protected] or call 760-801-5021.