Addressing critical mineral supply risks

Plus, a new nuclear energy report this week; geothermal’s huge potential; oil markets in 2025; the latest outlook for coal; introducing WEO GPT; and more...

First-of-its-kind critical minerals stress test highlights continued IEA work on supply security?

We have significantly expanded?our work to support secure supplies of?critical minerals?for energy technologies,?publishing new?data?and analysis and recently holding a first-of-its-kind emergency preparedness exercise.

The long-planned exercise, which took place in early December, is part of our Voluntary Critical Minerals Security Programme, which builds on our longstanding experience in safeguarding energy market security. It was attended by delegates from IEA Member governments and focused on enhancing preparedness, expediting diversification and accelerating the implementation of strategic policy measures to mitigate critical mineral supply risks.?

Looking ahead, our Agency will continue to expand our activities to strengthen critical minerals security including in areas such as resilience against potential disruptions, tools to accelerate project developments in geographically diverse regions, and market monitoring and early warning mechanisms.?

Our Executive Director?Fatih Birol?highlighted this past week?the risk of a supply deficit emerging for copper, which is needed for a range of fast-growing technologies such as grids, batteries, EVs and renewables as the world moves towards?the Age of Electricity.

Learn more about critical minerals markets in our?latest outlook?and our?recent report?on how recycling them can improve the security and sustainability of supplies.

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Coming Thursday: Nuclear energy’s potential for a new era of growth

This week, on 16 January, we will release a new special report on nuclear energy and its prospects for the decades ahead. The report will examine the impediments to boosting investment in nuclear energy and identify potential solutions, with a focus on financing.

Nuclear energy is an important source of secure and clean electricity in a lot of countries today and is poised to continue playing a key role in the coming decades. Interest in expanding nuclear energy is growing in many countries around the world where it is accepted, driven by efforts to bolster energy security and clean energy transitions.

At the same time, technology advances, including the development of small modular reactors (SMRs), are also set to change the dynamics for nuclear energy in the years ahead. But despite ambitions to expand nuclear power capacity, investment remains insufficient. Growth in the sector is currently constrained by high costs – both actual and perceived – as well as political challenges and construction risks.

Join Dr Birol and our Director of Energy Markets and Security?Keisuke Sadamori?for the?livestreamed launch?of the report,?The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy, on Thursday at 10:30?am CET.

Technology breakthroughs are unlocking geothermal energy's vast potential

With global electricity demand set to grow strongly, new technologies are opening up the massive potential of geothermal energy to provide around-the-clock clean power in almost all countries around the world, according to our new report.

The Future of Geothermal Energy?finds that geothermal energy could meet 15% of global electricity demand growth between now and 2050 if project costs continue to decline. This would mean the deployment of as much as 800 gigawatts of geothermal capacity worldwide, delivering annual output equivalent to the current electricity demand of the United States and India combined.

Geothermal energy offers abundant, highly flexible and clean electricity supplies that can support variable renewable technologies such as wind and solar while complementing other low-emissions sources like nuclear. Notably, geothermal energy can draw upon the expertise of today’s oil and gas industries by using existing drilling techniques and equipment to go deeper under the earth’s surface to tap into vast energy resources.?

Our Executive Director outlined these findings in a recent?address to EU Energy Ministers in Brussels. He noted that new geothermal technologies offer countries across Europe a secure and clean energy source if governments strengthen policy support and streamline permitting.

Learn more in our?press release?and explore the?full report.?You can also watch the video of the?launch event with Dr Birol and lead authors?Heymi Bahar?and?Brent Wanner.

Oil market set to be well supplied in 2025, although geopolitical risks remain

Growth in global oil demand is forecast to remain modest this year while output is expected to rise steadily – indicating a well-supplied market in 2025, according to our December Oil Market Report. However, as recent years have shown, market shocks can arrive with little or no warning, making close attention to oil security as important as ever.

Global oil demand growth is set to rise slightly from an average of around 900,000 barrels per day last year to about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, the report forecasts. Meanwhile, supply is set to continue to expand at a healthy pace, led by producers in the Americas.

The decision by OPEC+ to delay the unwinding of its additional voluntary production cuts by another three months has materially reduced the potential supply overhang that was set to emerge this year. Even so, persistent overproduction from some OPEC+ members, robust supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries and the relatively modest global oil demand growth leaves the market looking comfortably supplied, according to the report.

Read the?overview and highlights.?And stayed tuned for our?January Oil Market Report,?which comes out on Wednesday.

China will continue to shape the outlook for global coal demand?

After reaching a new high in 2024, global demand for coal is set to level off in the coming years as a surge in renewable power helps to meet soaring demand for electricity around the world, according to our latest analysis.

Coal 2024?– the new edition of our annual coal market report, which analyses the latest trends and updates medium-term forecasts – shows that global coal use rose to an estimated 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024, a record. Demand is set to stay close to this level through 2027 as renewable energy sources play a greater role in generating power and coal consumption levels off in China.

The electricity sector in China is particularly important to global coal markets, with one out of every three tonnes of coal consumed worldwide burned at a power plant in the country. In 2024, China continued to diversify its power sector. This should help to limit increases in coal consumption through 2027, according to the report, which also highlights a number of key uncertainties for the outlook.

Electricity use in a number of countries, including China, is growing at a strong pace due to factors including the electrification of services like transport and heating, rising demand for cooling, and increasing consumption from emerging sectors such as data centres. Weather patterns could also drive fluctuations in coal consumption in the short term.?

Read the?press release?and the?full report.

New GPT tool allows you to explore World Energy Outlook data and analysis using AI

We recently released a?new AI agent?for users to explore the 2024 edition of our flagship?World Energy Outlook?– allowing anyone curious about the report’s findings to more easily dig into its data, analysis and projections.

The GPT tool, built on Microsoft Azure using Copilot Studio, was first announced at the IEA’s?Global Conference on Energy & AI held in Paris last month. Powered by an AI model that has been trained on the full World Energy Outlook 2024 report, the agent can answer questions about energy trends using natural, conversational language. For example, a user can ask, “What are the expectations for growth in global electricity demand over the next decade?” and quickly receive an answer based on the report’s analysis.

Over the coming months, we will continue to test and develop the agent – currently in its beta version – as it interacts with website users. It is part of our wider efforts to make our data and statistics?more freely available, including through a growing library of?data explorers.

You can?try the GPT tool here. The page includes key tips for getting the most out of the AI agent. The tool is also available directly on the?World Energy Outlook report page.

Our major Global Conference on Energy Efficiency will take place in Brussels in June

Dr Birol and European Commissioner for Energy and Housing?Dan J?rgensen?have announced that they will co-host the IEA’s 10th Annual Global Conference on Energy Efficiency in Brussels on 12-13 June 2025.

The Annual Global Conference brings together ministers, business leaders and industry representatives to drive stronger action on energy efficiency. A key focus of the conference will be the global agreement to double energy efficiency progress this decade. Our?latest analysis?shows that governments are not on track to achieve the doubling goal, with stronger policy action needed on energy efficiency in a range of areas such as buildings, industry and transport.?

Learn more in our?news article.

In other news...

Our new report outlines key steps for building a more?resilient and decentralised power system in Ukraine?as Russia targets Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The report was launched by an IEA delegation in Kyiv, with Ukrainian Deputy Energy Minister?Roman Andarak?and other key Ukrainian electricity system stakeholders. It offers a roadmap for how Ukraine can speed up its rollout of rooftop solar, wind, batteries and small modular gas turbines, which could mitigate the impacts of the ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure and align Ukraine’s energy system with its government’s long-term goals for energy security and decarbonisation. Read our?news article?and the?full report.

We also recently published our latest Energy Policy Review of the?Netherlands. It explores the country's most pressing energy sector challenges and provides recommendations on how to address them, based on international best practices. Read the?news article?and the?full report. ?

Our Executive Director recently delivered a?keynote address in Istanbul alongside Turkish Minister of Finance?Mehmet Simsek?and Sabanc? University Chair?Güler Sabanc?. Dr Birol discussed energy market trends, developments around clean energy technologies and looming energy security challenges.

Our recent commentary looks at how the?upfront prices of electric cars?could affect the outlook for sales in the coming years. Global momentum behind electric cars remains powerful in the medium term, but a crucial factor in the pace of growth across markets will be whether affordability improves.?Read the commentary.

Another new report takes a look at the outlook for EVs from a different angle, analysing the?emissions related to batteries?across their supply chains and priorities for reducing them. Take a look?here.?

New patents to?integrate artificial intelligence into power grids?have grown sixfold in recent years, with the United States and China leading the way in AI for smart grid development, according to our?new study produced together with the European Patent Office.?Learn more.

While countries in?Latin America and the Caribbean?have made significant strides in expanding?clean cooking solutions?in recent decades, more than 10% of the region's population – or 70 million people – still lack access to them, according to the latest data. Our?recent commentary?explores the access gaps that persist and what actions are needed to meet universal access goals.

ENERGY SNAPSHOT

If geothermal can follow in the footsteps of innovation success stories such as solar PV, wind, EVs and batteries, it can become a cornerstone of tomorrow’s electricity and heat systems as a dispatchable and clean source of energy. Learn more in our new report?The Future of Geothermal Energy.

WHAT WE'RE READING & WATCHING:?

• Geothermal shows massive untapped potential in new analysis [Axios]
• A new electricity supercycle is underway [Economist]
• Fracking expertise has potential to unlock geothermal energy?[Financial Times]
• Rapport de l’AIE : le charbon bient?t sur un plateau?? [Libération]??????????????
• Patents to add AI to power grids are surging, says IEA?[PV Magazine]

COMING UP:

15 January:?Oil Market Report

16 January:?The Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy

21 January:?Gas Market Report, Q1-2025

Early February:?Electricity 2025

13 February:?Oil Market Report

Mid-March:?Global Methane Tracker 2025

April 24-25:?International Summit on the Future of Energy Security