Bringing Data to The 'Next Normal' Debate

We are inundated with too many opinions, but far too little insight these days when it comes to COVID-19 and how it will continue to change our lives and behaviours. Dig Insights has been running a tracking study to measure reactions and perceptions of the crisis since April. Our study has focused on three specific views of the crisis: The Virus, The Economy and The Reaction. In addition to trending measures within each theme, Dig has added category ‘deep-dives’ that look at specific consumer attitudes and behaviours across a variety of categories. In the latest wave (June), Dig focused on a longer-term view of the possible outcomes for the ‘Next Normal’.

Trended Reactions

On one hand, there is growing optimism among most consumers. The numbers of reported cases of COVID-19 have declined in Canada and some aspects of peoples’ lives are returning to “normal”, with many places starting to “re-open”. We also saw lessening concerns of personally contracting the virus, and an increasing belief that the situation is generally improving.

However, there is also a greater sense that the challenges we are facing are going to linger for quite some time. People recognize that there is not an easy or simple solution. While overall concern may be decreasing, some specific perceptions are not improving or are worsening. People are increasingly doubting that they can count on our government officials to lead us through the crisis, some continue to worry about financial hardships, and confidence in the economy remains low (only 24% believe that the economy will be stronger in 6 months). Finally, the number of people (~40%) who feel depressed or overwhelmed has been relatively unchanged versus previous waves.

The Next Normal

All pandemics eventually end, and with at least 142 potential novel coronavirus vaccines being developed by researchers across the globe it is a matter of "when, not if" a successful candidate will be found. That combined with the plethora of treatments being investigated should give us a high level of confidence that this is a painful but ultimately transitional period. Therefore, the big question for most continues to be “what will things look like next?”

We added a series of questions to our latest study aimed at addressing the most frequently cited, most dire or just plain most interesting projections we could find through an exhaustive literary review of news stories and articles that were appearing prior to fielding our most recent wave. While the general population could not be asked about ALL of the subjects we found (e.g. Venture Capital dollars drying-up for unprofitable ‘growth’ companies), we designed a battery of relatively simple questions in order to add some fact-based data to many topics of discussion.

Our Analysis

Any discussion of what the ‘Next Normal’ will look like, must involve some element of judgement. In our analysis, we used judgment to place the identified trends/projections on a 2X3 table of outcomes, where the y-axis represents the likelihood that these trends will be part of the Next Normal, and was informed by our research. The x-axis is based on our internal assessment of how impactful these trends will be on society overall and is therefore more debatable.

The Surprises

Despite all of the negative headlines and celebrity gaffes, our research doesn’t support that this crisis will bring an end to ‘influencer culture’. Sure Gal Gadot needs to either fire everyone on her PR staff or she needs to actually hire some, but only 34% of our respondents agreed with the statement “celebrities and influencers are completely out of touch during the crisis” and 43% agreed “I have a lower opinion of many celebrities due to how they have acted.”

Another surprise was that while people are very likely to agree that they will continue to “avoid touching things like screens and handrails” even after the restrictions are lifted, only 22% agreed that they “don’t think they will ever feel comfortable using paper money in the future”, so while ‘No Touch Tech’ is likely to see growth, even a pandemic won’t force people to give-up their filthy lucre in exchange for cashless payments.

Finally, 19% agreed that “I am more interested in learning about Bitcoin/cryptocurrencies”, while still only about 1 in 5, over the long term Crypto could begin gaining steam as cash alternative depending on how economies recover and how governments decide to service their massive debts.

The Expected

Most of us tried out new shopping models during the shutdowns, we ‘clicked and collected’ everything we needed either through delivery or curbside pick-up. In-fact, 20% of Canadians who used curbside pick-up for groceries during the pandemic did so for the first time. Of those 50% intend to continue after it ends. Additionally, 31% of Canadians who used curbside pick-up for non-grocery items did so for the first time during the pandemic and 46% also intend to continue after the crisis ends. This means that the death watch for ‘bricks and mortar’ stores just got meaningfully accelerated and retailers that don’t catch-up fast may not last through to a recovery.

Unfortunately, none of us are going anywhere exotic on vacation for a while. While the airlines are understandably trying to find ways to survive, it may be even more challenging than they estimate. Our study found 59% of Canadians agreed “I plan on vacationing much closer to home for the foreseeable future” and 52% agreed “I will only take vacations to locations I can drive to in the foreseeable future”.

Also, of little surprise is the fact that remote work is going to stick around, with 56% agreeing “Even when workplaces re-open, I would prefer to keep working from home”. That could spell disaster for the commercial real estate sector if employers decide to go along with their employees wishes and find multiple cost savings in the process.

The Concerning

Probably the most concerning thing on the horizon is the upcoming mandatory vaccination debate. In our study only 58% agreed “If a vaccine was available today, I would take it” and 49% agreed “If/When a vaccine becomes available, taking it should be mandatory by law”. Given the range of estimates required for herd immunity are normally 60% or more, the upcoming debate over vaccination is concerning to say the least.

Call it an extension of J.M. Keynes 'paradox of thrift' if you like. Thriftiness can be a problem, particularly when an economy is trying to recover, in-fact many posited that the strongly negative views of conspicuous consumption during the Great Depression worsened and prolonged the crisis. Our study found 56% agreed “People shouldn't show-off their wealth during the recession” and 21% agreed “People should hide any big new purchases from others during the recession”. If John Maynard was right, these findings are nothing to dismiss.

While more of a problem for our neighbours to the south, mixed messages and confusing restrictions have had concerning impacts on the public’s trust in government. Our study saw 44% agreeing “I don't trust that the government is telling us the whole truth about COVID-19”. This is particularly concerning when we couple it with the increasing doubt they feel that they can count on our government officials to lead us through the crisis. Finally, 54% agreed “Our government is going to have a lot more power over our lives for the foreseeable future” a problematic state of affairs when trust and confidence are waning. 

More Details

This article is only long enough to highlight some of the most salient findings, for more details, click here: Digs Covid-19 Tracking Report