Add reserves, sustain exploration & production: Message by PAPG Chairman for ATC 2017

I on behalf of Pakistan Association of Petroleum Geoscientists (PAPG) in association with our sister organization SPE Pakistan present to the oil & gas businesses and professionals a joint effort of Pakistan’s Upstream professionals, the 2017 PAPG-SPE Annual Technical Conference. This year SPE Pakistan was in leading role and has put together an exciting program comprising exhibition session, oral and poster presentations and a number of interactive sessions including luncheons and entertainment events. These together with our flagship Proceedings publication reflect this Conference’s success, value and service delivery to PAPG and SPE memberships and the country in general. I admire and thank dedicated geoscientists and engineers and the reviewers of PAPG and SPE Technical Committees who took this extraordinary step towards knowledge sharing and its dissemination.   

Given the mid- to longer-term challenge of energy security that our country faces, the Conference theme this year has been around adding new reserves and sustaining upstream activities in the Oil & Gas sector of Pakistan. E&P sector and subsurface professionals have been going through unusual times over the past four years. Although geologists and geophysicists are not unfamiliar with the boom and bust cycles of oil industry, their poor reaction and unpreparedness require redressing. Role of in-job professionals and associations such as ours has become critical in these circumstances and in a way would determine the next course of oil industry in our country, especially that of foreign oil companies. During the previous seven long years of high oil prices of $80-$120/barrel in 2006-2013, geoscientists wordwide had the luxury of venturing in geologically complex, environmentally sensitive, technologically intensive and geographically remote and difficult areas which resulted in huge discoveries but at a whopping finding cost of $8-$16 per boe; many of these are still waiting to be appraised. We all know that Exploration work programs are not only the riskiest investment part of Petroleum Value Chain, these also involve longer lead times of 2-5 years from new acquisition to actual discovery and monetization. In these low times, due to minimized exploration activity to achieve cost and operating efficiencies in short term, companies are now struggling with the next gaps of reserves replacement and sustained production. A lesson learned once again; a sustained minimum critical mass of projects must remain in the exploration funnel. To that end, Exploration & Reservoir Geologists and Geophysicists have the responsibility of demonstrating to their internal & external stakeholders not only the range of “new Value” that can be created in their existing licenses and new target acreage but also the range of geological uncertainties and risks and multiple outcome possibilities. In addition to geologically well-grounded exploration strategies, they must start taking into account the “above ground” non-technical risks and deliver success through agile, customized and cost-effective operations. All of these require careful portfolio building through farm-ins, bid rounds and M&A, and front-end-loading and agile stakeholder management early in the planning phase of projects. 

With that backdrop, PAPG's role and service delivery to Pakistan’s G&G community have to evolve according to the changing domestic and global trends. As such, the Association has started this year with a program-based approach to reshape and add new dimensions to its activities in order to keep up with the next E&P challenges. Few areas of these efforts are: Engaging Members especially the Founding Members through PAPG Committees, formulating and initiating the G&G Mentoring Program, Technical Workshops and Student Chapters, quality collaboration with American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), starting an Impact Factor Research Journal, and proactively engaging the universities and R&D institutions to nurture and fertilize these nurseries of geoscientific know-how. With gradually diminishing prospects of a huge oil glut in 2018 and feeling the reserves replacement pressure from stakeholders, E&P operators are beginning to add more exploration & appraisal wells in their 2018 work programs along with the addition of manpower. This is yet to be seen how we the geologists and geophysicists would act differently this time around, not only in terms of planning and spending huge budgets on frontier difficult to monetize basins but also in terms of identifying and engaging internal and external stakeholders for agile operational and financial planning and funding. The conference through its exhibition session, presentations and Proceedings publication has provided everyone an opportunity to share and learn from each other and better align ourselves for the next challenges of new reserves delivery as one geoscientific and technical community. Thank you again for attending and being part of our flagship event of the year.

Dr. Nadeem Ahmad

Chairman PAPG

Sr. Advisor Exploration & New Business,

United Energy Pakistan Ltd. (previously BP Pakistan)

[email protected]

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