ADB Projects Solid Growth but Rising Risks for Asia and Pacific

MANILA, PHILIPPINES (20 September 2023) — Economic growth in Asia and the Pacific is expected to remain solid, although risks to the outlook are rising, according to a report by ADB.

The region’s developing economies are forecast to grow 4.7% this year, a slight downward revision from a previous projection of 4.8%, according to Asian Development Outlook (ADO) September 2023, released today. The growth forecast for next year is maintained at 4.8%.

Growth in the region was upbeat in the first half of this year, driven by healthy domestic demand and reopening in the People’s Republic of China (PRC), even as a weaker global outlook reduced export demand. Rebounding tourism, resilient service sectors, healthy money transfers into the region, and improving financial conditions are all helping support economic activity, and inflation is receding in most economies after peaking last year.?

However, weakness in the PRC’s property sector is weighing on regional prospects. High global interest rates have increased the risk of financial instability. Sporadic supply disruptions from the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine, export restrictions, and the increased risk of droughts and floods caused by El Ni?o could once again trigger rising food prices and challenge food security.

"Developing Asia continues growing robustly, and inflation pressures are receding," said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. "Some central banks in the region have started to lower interest rates, which will help boost growth. Still, governments need to be vigilant against the many risks that the region faces. Property market weakness in the PRC remains a concern. Extreme weather events due to climate change and the effects of El Ni?o remind us that economies must work together to build resilience and protect the most vulnerable."

Inflation in developing Asia and the Pacific is expected to be 3.6% this year, down from an earlier projection of 4.2%. This is largely due to low inflation in the PRC, along with steadying food and energy prices. The inflation forecast for next year is 3.5%.

Among developing Asia’s subregions, Southeast Asia’s growth outlook is cut to 4.6% this year from an earlier projection of 4.7%, due to weaker export demand. The forecast for South Asia is also lowered by 0.1 percentage points, to 5.4%—though it remains the fastest-growing subregion, thanks to strong investment and consumption. The outlook for East Asia is cut to 4.4% from 4.6%, with the PRC now expected to grow by 4.9% this year, from 5.0% in April. Growth forecasts have been raised for the Caucasus and Central Asia and for the Pacific.

ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region.