ADB: Pakistan's National Urban Assessment

In ADB's recent published report about Urban Assessments of Pakistan, it draws attention to civil and Institutional hypocrisy, societal division, religious rivalries and vested interests at the heart of Pakistan's major economical hubs.

Demographics and Urbanization

Pakistan’s population growth averaged 2.55% annually in 2017–2023. This was marked by a 3.65% annual growth in urban population, nearly double that of the rural population while urban population is projected to climb to 99.4 million, or 40.7% of the country’s total, in 2030.

By 2017, 54% of the country’s urban dwellers lived in just 21 major urban localities with populations exceeding 500,000, with 34.5% of them in the megacities of Karachi and Lahore. In each of the provinces, the capital cities hold a disproportionately large share of the provincial urban population, concentrating both the political and administrative pressures of urbanization. The rising dominance of the industry and services sectors in Pakistan’s major cities fuels the engines of economic development. While agriculture remains the biggest source of employment at the national level, services, followed by industry, are the biggest sources of employment in all major cities. In 2018, the cities generated 55% of the country’s GDP, with the 10 major cities accounting for 95% of the federal tax revenue. Karachi alone contributed 12%–15% of the national GDP and 55% of the federal tax revenue in 2018.

Multiple mutually exclusive governance structures militate against the clear assignment of liability for municipal service failures. The differing approaches to devolution by provinces will impact urbanization. Varied provincial amendments to the LGAs establishing different urban–rural interfaces present an opportunity to learn how these different structures affect urbanization. For example, the 2019 amendments to the LGA of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) abolished the district councils, creating a single two-tier governance structure of urban and rural municipal councils at the subdistrict level, potentially more adept at managing the urban–rural interface. On the other hand, the Punjab LGA 2022 abolished the subdistrict councils, creating two parallel urban and rural two-tier local government structures, potentially retaining greater capacity within their district municipal services providers. Though still in their early implementation stages, the impact of these initiatives on municipal service delivery can inform decision-making on urban governance.

ISLAMABAD

Although designed as a low-rise, low-density city, Islamabad — the federal capital — is under constant pressure to deviate from the plan due to mounting housing demand. Like Pakistan’s other major cities, the main problem in Islamabad is institutional. Instead of cooperating under a central metropolitan authority, agencies act as rivals and struggle for power.

KARACHI

The report assessed that class division is a major problem in Karachi since most of the elite live in cantonment areas or private housing societies, while those on low incomes have been pushed to the city’s largest district, Karachi

East. The city is further divided along religious and ethnic lines, which has led to several outbreaks of violence in the past. Karachi is the only city in Pakistan that, to some degree, is expanding vertically due to limited land and urgent housing needs, it says.

LAHORE

Uncontrollable sprawl is the main challenge facing Lahore. The city is quickly absorbing surrounding agricultural fields through numerous uncoordinated housing schemes and with little central planning. Many developments are illegal and there is no mechanism to report and stop early construction. The city missed an opportunity to set its newly constructed Ring Road as a boundary and transform it into an economic corridor, adding value to the local economy.

PESHAWAR

The demographic pressure in Peshawar has intensified with the merger of KP and the federally administered tribal areas, precipitating significant migration from these areas to Peshawar, resulting in doubling the population between 1998 and 2017. The KP Urban Policy 2030, adopted in early 2023, now guides the development of Peshawar. The city’s infrastructure is improving, and the operationalization of the first BRT line in 2020 has eased traffic and boosted urban mobility.

QUETTA

While Quetta is directly threatened by climate change, it receives limited support from international organisations, and there is no collaboration with other provinces to transfer knowledge. Private investment also remains limited and no public-private partnership projects are planned.

Pakistan is at a critical juncture, with urban aggregation, arguably the key driver of economic and social development, is challenged by failing public services, declining quality of life, and flagging economic productivity.