Adapting to an AI-Driven Future: The Role of Universal Basic Income in transitioning to a world with advanced AI

This article was co-written with ChatGPT-4 and the graphics by DALL-E.

I recently shared an article about a Universal Basic Income experiment in Kenya, and got to thinking about how this would apply in the context of the work and societal changes which will be brought about by Generative AI and other evolutions of the technology.

In the whirlwind of technological progress, the rise of generative AI and the looming advent of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and superintelligence pose not just opportunities, but significant challenges. The potential for these technologies to disrupt job markets and societal structures is immense. In this context, the GiveDirectly basic income experiment in Kenya offers crucial insights. It serves as a microcosm, showing how universal basic income (UBI) could be a vital tool in ensuring economic stability and social welfare as we transition to an AI-dominated era.

Understanding the Impact of Generative AI and Superintelligence

The trajectory of AI, from today’s generative models to the future’s superintelligent systems, presents a complex landscape of opportunity and challenge. On one hand, generative AI is revolutionising industries by enabling rapid content creation, data analysis, and problem-solving across various domains. On the other, as we edge towards the realm of AGI and superintelligence, the potential for widespread job displacement and change becomes a stark reality.

This evolution of AI is not just a technical leap but a fundamental shift in how work is perceived and valued. As AI systems increasingly take on tasks traditionally performed by humans, from routine administrative duties to more complex creative and analytical work, the nature of employment is set to undergo profound changes. The risk is twofold: the immediate impact on jobs and the longer-term societal implications of a workforce competing with ever-smarter machines.

In this light, the role of UBI emerges as a critical component of our collective response. By providing a financial safety net, UBI could offer much-needed stability and flexibility for individuals to adapt to this rapidly changing job landscape. It could enable people to reskill, pursue education, or transition to new career paths that are less susceptible to automation.

The GiveDirectly Basic Income Experiment: Lessons for an AI Future

The GiveDirectly experiment in Kenya is a real-world illustration of how UBI might function as a socio-economic stabiliser. Since 2016, the program has been providing unconditional monthly cash payments to thousands of individuals in rural communities. This initiative offers more than just financial relief; it provides a model for how societies might cope with the economic shifts brought about by AI.

The outcomes of this experiment have been telling. Recipients of regular payments have demonstrated improved well-being, greater financial stability, and an increased ability to make long-term plans. These effects are particularly relevant in the context of AI-induced economic disruption. The assurance of a basic income could similarly empower individuals to navigate the uncertainties brought about by rapid technological change, fostering an environment where learning new skills or starting new ventures becomes more feasible.

Moreover, the experiment sheds light on the psychological impacts of financial security. Recipients of UBI in Kenya reported lower stress levels and higher overall happiness, suggesting that beyond its economic benefits, UBI could play a vital role in maintaining societal well-being in the face of AI-driven job displacement and change.

UBI as a Buffer Against AI-Induced Economic Disruption

In an AI-driven future, where job security may become increasingly tenuous, UBI offers a buffer against economic disruption. By providing a baseline level of income, UBI could reduce the risk of poverty and social unrest that might arise from widespread unemployment or underemployment due to AI advancements.

This form of economic safety net could also encourage entrepreneurial activities and innovation. With the basic needs covered, individuals might be more inclined to take entrepreneurial risks or engage in creative pursuits that could lead to new forms of work and economic activities, some of which may emerge as a direct response to the opportunities and challenges presented by AI technologies.

Conclusion

As we stand on the cusp of a new era shaped by generative AI, superintelligence, and AGI, the lessons from the GiveDirectly experiment are more relevant than ever. They underscore the potential of UBI not just as a financial tool, but as a broader strategy for fostering a resilient, adaptable, and thriving society in the face of unprecedented technological change. Embracing UBI could be one of the key steps in ensuring that the benefits of AI advancements are equitably shared, and its challenges are effectively managed, paving the way for a future that is not only technologically advanced but also socially and economically inclusive.