Actors will be going through changes as the industry changes.

At various times in Hollywood, big-name actors have had a lot of power. This isn’t one of them.

In the 1940s actresses determined whether a studio would make a profit or not; in the 1950s the actors won more clout because it foreign markets wanted to see the stars and it was easier to break contracts. Today, the actors don’t have that much clout.?

Big name artists demand big paychecks, first-look deals, but few actors can demand all that now.

Stars like Tom Cruise and Will Smith, who in the past could be counted on to open action hits, have flopped. And Leo is blockbuster-averse.

One reason why actors have lost the clout they won in the 1960s is that Hollywood no longer tells stories in which good acting matters. Actors don’t go to acting teachers, they go to the gym so they can be ready for the 53rd Marvel movie.

Big-name artists wanted production deals, but studios cooled to the idea because actors don’t stay loyal to the studio. Universal held Ron Howard’s hand for The Missing, Inside Deep Throat and Cinderella Man, and he repaid them by taking the golden goose, Da Vinci Code, to Sony. Will Smith’s deal apparently is no more and so is Jerry Bruckheimer’s.

Likewise agencies have been sucking a lot of money out of the industry, sometimes with conflicts of interest, involved both as agents and in the production process. The aftershocks of the Warner decision, which threatens back-end money, will force both actors and agents to rethink.

Actors will be reviewing their contracts: language that says they get X up front and then Y as a percentage of the modified gross, will be changed if Y is going to be tiny or nonexistent. Producers and directors too. A lot of lawyers will have to throw out their contract boilerplate and create new ones for the new reality, more up-fronts, less back-end.

All around us are examples of people who throw fits because they didn’t read their contracts, and not just Warner’s partners. Taylor Swift knew when she signed her first contract that others would buy her catalog, but threw a fit when it actually happened. David Chapelle threw his pacifier out of the baby buggy because he signed a deal so lousy that he essentially made nothing off his TV series, and demanded that Netflix and HBO stop streaming it. Now is the time for smart lawyers and attentive artists, making sure the new offers they get are what they want.

On a related note, Nolan has a point to the effect that a massive move away from the traditional residual structure to streamers will affect pensions and health care for union members; the unions will demand that their personnel be taken care of in negotiations. But this was an issue before Warner made their move: why didn’t Nolan fight this fight with Netflix and Amazon? Is he doing anything for the union guys now? Again, a lot of lawyers will get rich building a new model for contracts, and then negotiating with talent, unions and producers.

Warner offered artistic partners money; they want more. The artists know if they don’t fight, other studios will follow Warner. But they will probably follow them anyway.

Agents are changing their negotiating tactics, adding language to account for projects that were intended for the big screen but don’t get there. But the first-class passengers are getting into the lifeboats first. Marvel plans to give big name actors, directors and producers more money if new films go to Disney Plus, while letting the little people fend for themselves. Producers and directors who are new and have short resumes don’t get the big deals. Or, of course, the gaffers and grips and everyone else.

Looking forward, the writers were expected to fight during the 2023 WGA negotiations, and more brawls would reasonably be expected to follow. Pre-COVID payment models for writers aren’t working anymore, as people figure out day-and-date, streaming and everything else. TV syndication residuals may be gone. Streamer deals are getting a hard look. Netflix’s generous cost-plus television purchasing may be a thing of the past. Lawsuits, accusations of self-dealing to keep fees down. More projects are being executed outside the reach of the Hollywood unions. The lack of concrete information about how projects are performing and who is watching are no longer tolerable: people need the data for all sorts of negotiations.

Back-end deals may disappear if audiences don’t want to go to the cinema anymore; actors can threaten to boycott studios or form their own company if they don’t get the deals, but that won’t make audiences show up. Points and backends are hard to lay hands on; Disney is among the players moving away from backend deals to one-time bonuses. Leverage is even harder to lay hands on. Careers initially planned during the golden era of big box office returns are derailed by the reality that those billion-dollar movies that rain paychecks like confetti are an endangered species. Even the haves are facing futures that are more Toyota and less Lear jet.

The culture warriors need to understand when they join in these battles in a clumsy or unfair way, it can backfire. Disney apparently violated the terms of Scarlett Johansson’s contract when they released Black Widow on their streamer, which cost her a pack of money; her team tried many times to fix the problem but was apparently rebuffed. Disney threw gasoline on the fire by bragging about the millions they had made on the streamer. When she sued, Disney fought back by claiming Johansson was insensitive to all the suffering caused by COVID, which was really vile, and immediately brought a lot of people into Johansson’s corner. Disney then used an orchestrated PR campaign to whine about Johansson’s orchestrated PR campaign. Disney also fouled up by disclosing Johansson’s salary, and claiming absurdly that Johansson demanded $100 million.

After Disney took a serious PR hit for mishandling the Johansson issue, they looked for an exec to blame. And then they backtracked. Their CEO stated that Disney would be “resetting” their contracts in the future, while also trying to do right for actors who signed up for movies before COVID hit, an effort they didn’t bother to make with Johansson, whom they still say got what she was owed. And then finally they surrendered and wrote her a fat check ($40 million), more than Gal Gadot got without a lawsuit.

Disney made a number of mistakes they won’t repeat. They will be very reluctant to give actors box office points: the pay will be almost all up-front, except for the people with clout, like Gadot and Jenkins who got extra cash. They will put distribution control articles in the contracts, so Disney can decide how to handle their films. They will tell their executives to never write an email promising a salary adjustment if the distribution model changes, like Marvel lawyer David Galluzzi did.

The Netflix CEO helpfully added his snark: "I watch these things as a spectator — I would have said this or said that. I’m fortunate that we have not been in those shoes. Talent has to be respected and compensated."

Point is, as the era of the blockbusters ends, the film economy will contract, and like all depressions, the very rich will come out okay, but the rest will face rough times.

?Jack is a writer with 29 feature screenplays and a series completed, almost all of them with female leads, three under option. Check them out on this site and let’s get one filmed! https://threewibbes.wordpress.com/