An active weather week for east and central India. Another depression is likely to emerge from the Gulf of Thailand on 14th/ 15th October.

The Southwest Monsoon is lingering, and withdrawal has paused since 6th October. In view of the continuation of rains over east and central India, this may get stalled further. Also, the onset of Northeast Monsoon over South Peninsula may get delayed.

Serious efforts seem to be intended this season to control and catch the bull of air pollution by the horn. All the three pillars judiciary, legislation and executive appear to be in resonance and working in tandem to arrest the menace of stubble fires and industrial pollution. A slew of measures have been initiated to control the pollution in the upcoming winter months. Uttar Pradesh pollution control board (UPPCB) has ordered all the builders of large projects to install anti-smog guns or face a heavy penalty of Rs 5,00,000. The anti-smog gun is a canon that sprays atomised water till 50 m into the air to bring down the suspended pollutants. Inspections are likely to start from October 15 for compliance. Ahead of the pollution season, more than 10 anti-smog guns have been installed at major construction sites located across south Delhi area. More guns are likely to be installed before October 15, including at some landfill sites where large-scale biomining work is underway. South Delhi municipal corporation has ordered its executives and assistant engineers to initiate action against big construction sites, which have now deployed anti-smog guns by October 15. Central Pollution Control Boards (CPCB) led task force has asked state government in Delhi and NCR towns to deploy adequate personnel across pollution hotspots. Industries, particularly in the ‘Red’ and ‘Orange’ categories have been asked to submit an undertaking to their respective state pollution control board that they were not polluting. Delhi government will start spraying a fermented liquid solution developed by IARI (Indian Agriculture Research Institute) infields from October 11 to turn stubble into manure. Punjab government has informed the supreme court, mandated Environment Pollution Control Authority (EPCA), CHG (Custom Hiring Centers) would not charge any rentals for providing machines to small and marginal farmers to manage stubble. The Supreme court-appointed EPCA has asked states to set up control rooms through which non-compliance on the ground could be monitored. Also, the court has summoned the chief secretaries of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi and ordered them to remain present in the court during the next hearing through video conferencing.

This going to be an active weather week for east and central India. Another depression is likely to emerge from the Gulf of Thailand on 14th/ 15th October. This weather system will have a short sea travel but still may turn into a first cyclonic storm of the post-Monsoon season. If so, it will be named Gati and will strike Odisha.

North India

The hilly regions will remain free from any weather activity for the entire week. Fairweather conditions will prevail over the plains on most days of the week. Uttar Pradesh and south Rajasthan will observe light rains around the weekend. North and west Rajasthan and parts of neighbouring Haryana will observe hot days with temperatures in the high 30s.

East and Northeast India

Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal are likely to have light to moderate weather activity in the first half of the week. Moderate to heavy rain and thundershowers are expected over a few parts of these states in the second half. Weather activity will become mild during mid-week on 15th and 16th over most of these parts. No extreme weather activity is expected between 12th and 16th October over most parts of Northeast India. The last two days, 17th and 18th October will witness spike in thunderstorm activity especially over Arunachala Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.

Central Parts

A depression moving across the central parts will affect all 5 states of the central region. Starting with Odisha on the east coast and extending to Gujarat on the west side. Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra will experience rain and thundershowers throughout the week. Heavy rains may lash a few parts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh between 12 and 15th October. A cyclonic circulation will be persisting off Konkan and south Gujarat coast in the Arabian sea during the second half of the week. With this Gujarat and Konkan will have moderate to heavy rains between 15th and 18th of October. Mumbai will also experience moderate to heavy showers during this period.

South peninsula

Light to moderate weather activity will remain confined to Telangana, north coastal Andhra Pradesh, coastal Karnataka and Kerala. Most other parts like Tamil Nadu, south interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema will observe least and light activity. Nearly dry weather conditions are expected over Tamil Nadu during the second half of the week.

Delhi NCR

Dry weather conditions will prevail during the week over Delhi NCR. Partly cloudy sky with chances of mild thunderstorm and patchy showers are likely during the last day of the week. The night temperatures may rise to low 20s during the week.

Chennai

Partly cloudy sky with sultry conditions will prevail throughout the week. Short duration light showers are possible during the first half of the week. The capital city Chennai can expect the arrival of Northeast Monsoon sometime around the end of next week or later.

Delhi Pollution

Since the last one-week Delhi Pollution is in ‘Moderate’ to ‘Poor’ category. PM 10 is in ‘Moderate’ category over many parts of Delhi and NCR whereas PM 2.5 is in ‘Poor’ category.

At present the overall AQI of the region is pegged at 215. Winds are blowing from Westerly and North-westerly direction in the afternoons at a low speed of 5 to 10 kmph. During the nights wind stagnates leading to accumulation of pollutants.

Stubble burning has been reported over many parts of Punjab as well as adjoining parts of Pakistan. Incidents of stubble burning have also increased over Haryana recently.

The North-westerly winds will continue for the next 2 - 3 days which will bring smoke particles from Haryana and Punjab as well as from central parts of Pakistan towards Delhi and NCR. There are chances pollution to increase further in next 48 hours.

Delhi NCR may thank the depression forming over Bay of Bengal due to which winds will start blowing from east. These easterly winds may block smoke from stubble burning and there will be an interim relief between October 14 and 17 due to moderate Easterly winds.