Action and Illusion

Ukraine Western illusions, Anti-China rhetoric in Western press, Foreign Policy figures of speech, Saudi perspectives, Codes of Conduct and fishing in SCS, China's peace mediation,

UPDATE: “All War is Deception” (Sun Tzu),?A classic French film exposes contemporary Western illusions about the looming defeat of Ukraine, NATO and the USA by Russia.

Mass hysteria reflects the inherent bias and China bashing of the West’s most powerful media outlets.?

Realism intervenes in two directions: one is the economic influence that China has gained at every level, including for one source as a "shaper" of global policies, but the other consists of warnings or reservations.?

When we look at the US position, the problem lies in the fact that the Gulf States understand the US agenda, while the US has little regard for theirs.?

China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang is touring ASEAN to build momentum for the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea and China’s “Position Paper” on the peaceful settlement of the Ukraine crisis.

Indonesia is the 2023 ASEAN Chair and is set to push for peace in the South China Sea and Ukraine.

The West’s grand Illusions in Ukraine

La Grande Illusion was the 1937 Renoir film that showed the tragic mistakes of the aristocrats of the European empires in World War I. In turn, it referred to a 1910 British tract, The Great Illusion that claimed war was irrational and impossible in civilised Europe because it went against the interests of the British Imperial Liberal Rules Based Order.

The looming defeat of Ukraine, NATO and the USA by Russia is exposing similar tragic mistakes and grand illusions. Russia is clearly winning the war. It is defeating not only Ukraine, but NATO and the USA. It is winning the war militarily. It has overwhelming artillery dominance and is about to take Bakhmut. Russia has withstood the economic war, the ‘sanctions from hell’ that would ‘turn the rouble into rubble’.’ It exposed the American illusion that Russia is a ‘gas station pretending to be a country’. Russia and its strategic partner China are winning diplomatically. Putin has defied the Western illusion that Joe Biden could assemble a WWII-style ‘United Nations of Democracies’ to isolate Russia. The world’s largest democracy, India, firmly and politely said, ‘No, the world is more complicated and multipolar than that.’

Even in the information war, the West has advanced ahead of its supply lines. Despite apparent American dominance and unprecedented restrictions on the ‘open society’ of the West, such as the removal of many Russian media channels, Russia is slowly turning the West’s information war blitzkrieg to its advantage. It simply exposes the truth. Ukraine is no democracy. Ukraine really does have a problem with extreme ethno-nationalist ideologies. Ukraine is press-ganging its citizens to die quickly in Donbass in order to prop up American news coverage of the war. Ukraine really has shelled and killed thousands of civilians since 2014. America, as Seymour Hersh reported and the ABC has yet to report, blew up the Nordstream pipelines. And America did so, according to Hersh’s sources, in a covert operation that bypassed Congress and harmed its own NATO ally. Thanks to the independent media, the truth will survive the blast.

Read full article?here .

Anti-China Rhetoric Is Off the Charts in Western Media

The mass hysteria reflects the biases inherent in the world’s most powerful media outlets. A key feature of mainstream Western media today is the relentless China-bashing. It is off the charts and tiring, often involving regurgitated trivia or fabricated stories with no evidence to support callous statements about the country, demonstrating a deep lack of understanding. But such stories continue to be churned out with no end in sight.

Countering this in international media by offering more balanced views for a global audience is near impossible as censorship is rife. There almost seems to be a global compact to control the narrative, a propaganda war powered by today’s digital technology.

Just try looking for a positive story on China any day of the week in any of the leading global media outlets. Apart from reports in January about the Lunar New Year, there will hardly be any, and these too are likely to have a negative spin. It would appear there is a confidential memo circulating within Western media groups that guides reporters and editors to ensure there cannot be any positive news arising from a country with 1.3 billion people.

Read full article?here .

Figures of Speech in China’s Foreign Policy

Realism intervenes in two directions: one is the economic influence that China has gained at every level, including for one source as a "shaper" of global economic policies. But the other consists of warnings or reservations. These are minority views expressed by Da Wei, a Tsinghua University don, Zheng Yongnian, a well-known returned overseas expert, and, more surprisingly, Dong Chunling, a junior member of the think tank operating under the Ministry of State Security. Da Wei reminds readers that economic dependence goes both ways, and that the West has proven to be surprisingly united in front of the war on Ukraine. For Dong Chunling, US-China cooperation on terrorism has been useful, and much of the differences obstructing US-China cooperation today are ideological. Zheng Yongnian hints at a possible analogy between the Ukraine and South China Sea issues: a hardline attitude from China may usher in an "Asian Nato", and China should therefore make more efforts towards ASEAN.

Again, these are almost anecdotal reservations - although Tsinghua’s Da Wei has the most factual and argued reasoning. Apart from these, one problem stands out:?our Chinese sources never go into specifics, and never outline a concrete and factual proposal from China.?Yet these exist - from the huge Belt and Road loans to China’s rare but real pledges on environmental issues, or to its contributions to international organizations. China’s experts, at least in their publications, appear focused on systemic issues and on broad-brush diplomatic initiatives. Clearly, these are directed at SCO members, BRICS and non-Western G20 participants: they do represent the largest constituency in the international community. Again, it is Da Wei who quite rightly points out the need for "positive" Chinese offers.

Read the full analysis?here .

Saudi Perspective on Ukraine

Interview with Abdulaziz Al Sager

When we look at the US position, the problem lies in the fact that the Gulf States understand the US agenda, while the US has little regard for theirs. President Biden said he expected "further steps" from the Saudis to cool oil prices and safeguard the global economy. This means the US wants the Gulf to opt out of OPEC+, increase their energy supply for more accessible oil and gas prices, and reduce Saudi-China trade relations. Yet at the same time, the US is not seriously considering the requirements for a lasting security architecture in the region.?

There are many questions at the moment. Is the United States withdrawing from the Middle East or sticking to its historical commitments in the region? We hear a stated public commitment on the one hand, but then we see something else in terms of implementation, for example when one looks at their recent policy towards Iraq. The US used to be a security guarantor for the GCC states, but today, especially in light of the current negotiations in Vienna and JCPOA talks, this is no longer the case. In the meantime, the US is not allowing the region to build the capacity and capability to defend itself. This is why the Crown Prince’s visit to France in August 2022 was an indirect message to the US. France is a reliable partner with excellent military capabilities; it showed previous commitments to the region by supplying Saudi Arabia with long-range missiles, and it deployed a radar system on the eastern coast of the kingdom after Iranian missile attacks damaged an oil processing facility.?

Domestically, the US is also in a precarious position, leaving many to worryingly observe and follow the current political situation in Washington. The November 8 midterms are around the corner and commitments made on the political campaign trail are both short-term and volatile. Gulf countries question whether US foreign policy towards the region will follow a similar path, initiated under Obama’s administration, and later by President Trump and President Biden, or whether there will be a change towards a renewed commitment. We have heard Biden’s claims stating that the region will not "be left as a vacuum to be filled by Russia or China" however in reality, the vacuum has already been created, as was evidenced by the previously-mentioned attack on the critical oil facility.

Read full interview?here .

South China Sea code progresses

Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan welcomes China’s interest in broadening and deepening engagement with Southeast Asian nations Qin Gang will visit Indonesia, the current Asean chair country.?

“China is also willing to work with Asean countries to fully and effectively implement the [Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea] and jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.”

The non-binding declaration, signed in 2002 by China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) member nations, aims to reduce the risk of conflict in regional waters, with the eventual goal of implementing a binding code of conduct.

The binding code is intended to manage tensions in the South China Sea, a resource-rich and strategically important waterway that is subject to overlapping claims from China and several Asean members, such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.

Qin stressed Singapore’s importance as a cooperative partner to China and said China viewed the city state’s unique role in regional and international affairs with great importance.

Both China and the US are stepping up engagement with Southeast Asia. The US has accused China of acting aggressively in the South China Sea with the deployment of military vessels, which Washington has said caused unsafe encounters with US vessels. But Beijing said US military deployment to the region was a provocation.

Read more?here .

Indonesia to Modify Maritime Sector Policy?

Chairperson of the Association of Indonesian Marine Affairs Scholars (Iskindo) Riza Damanik hoped that Indonesia's fisheries and maritime sectors could be like those in Thailand and China. The two countries, he opined, kept strengthening the sector and focused on the unity of the fishery business ecosystem of its people.

“That's why they provide fishermen’s insurance. China also implement this, providing insurance for its fishermen and their boats,” said Riza at Boska Cafe, South Jakarta, on Monday, February 20, 2023.

According to him, Thailand and Chinese governments, as well as the Vietnamese government, even involved in the development of their fishery product brands.

“There are many models in front of us, so in our opinion, we don't need to speculate that there are no role models. After all, there are actually quite a lot of good or bad lessons that we can avoid to make fisheries more valuable,” Riza remarked.

Read more?here .

China seeks to Mediate Ukraine Peace Settlement

The foreign minister of China, which has provided strong political backing for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine, said Tuesday his country wants to play a role in ending the conflict. Qin Gang told participants at a security conference in Beijing that China was concerned the almost year-long war could escalate further and spin “out of control.”

China would continue to urge peace talks and provide “Chinese wisdom” to bring about a political settlement” (Qin Gang)

“At the same time, we urge relevant countries to immediately stop adding fuel to the fire, stop shifting blames to China, and stop hyping up the discourse of Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow,” Qin said in an apparent reference to military support provided to Ukraine by the United States and its allies, as well as concerns that China is preparing to make good on its threats to use force to assert its claim to sovereignty over Taiwan, a self-governing island democracy.

China has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion or atrocities against Ukrainian civilians and strongly criticized Western economic sanctions against Moscow. In deference to Moscow, it has yet to describe the conflict as an invasion.

China and Russia have aligned their foreign policies to oppose the U.S. and, weeks before the Ukraine invasion, their leaders declared a partnership with “no limits.” China also says Russia was provoked into using military force by NATO’s eastward expansion.

Despite that, Qin reiterated China’s claim that it has “always taken an objective and impartial stance based on the merits of the issue.”

“China is deeply worried about the escalation of the situation and even the possibility of it going out of control,” Qin said. He said Chinese President Xi Jinping had put forward proposals that have “played a responsible and constructive role in easing the situation and de-escalating the crisis,” without offering any details or evidence.

Read more?here .

Indonesia-China advance CoC on South China Sea, Ukraine Peace Settlement

China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang is set to arrive in Indonesia for a two-day trip focused on trade and investments, although the South China Sea and Ukraine war will also feature in talks.

Qin will meet President Joko Widodo and his counterpart Retno Marsudi, chair the fourth meeting of the Joint Commission on Bilateral Cooperation (JCBC), visit the ASEAN headquarters in Jakarta, and hold talks with Luhut Pandjaitan, the coordinating minister for maritime affairs and investment who is also tasked with boosting Chinese investments.

The JCBC convention will follow up on the agenda set during Widodo’s meeting with President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, where both agreed to see through cooperation programmes over the next five years, including the Bandung-Jakarta high-speed railway.

Read full article?here .