ACT Research forecasts market upswing in 2025

If 2024 was considered a freight market rebalancing for truckload, then 2025 is projected to be the end of the freight recession in the for-hire space, according to ACT Research. Its 58-page freight forecast paired aggregate spot data provided by DAT with a proprietary Supply-Demand balance curve. In the release, Tim Denoyer, vice president and senior analyst at ACT Research, said, “Currently, with a significant capacity contraction by for-hire fleets and private fleet insourcing slowing, capacity has finally rebalanced enough for rates to start moving higher.”

Using data provided by DAT, Denoyer adds that spot rates net of fuel are 7% higher than one year ago in Q4, while data provided by DAT, Cass Information Systems and fleet financial data shows modest increases in contract rates.

SONAR spot rates net of fuel were more optimistic, up 14.7% y/y from $1.63 to $1.87 as of Nov. 26. The FreightWaves National Truckload Index (Linehaul Only) estimates its fuel surcharge “based on the average retail price of diesel fuel and fuel efficiency of 6.5 miles per gallon. The formula is NTID – (DTS.USA/6.5).” Comparing Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 quarter to date shows an average linehaul rate of $1.60 versus $1.74, an increase of 8.75% as of Nov. 26.?

Denoyer adds a caveat, as the extent of the boom in 2025 may be less than predicted due to private fleet expansion: “The market is very close to balance, and in 2025 the combination of normalizing equipment supply and a pre-tariff safety stock build are poised to drive higher for-hire freight demand and rates. The big private fleet expansion of the past two years will likely still leave anyone looking for a boom disappointed, but the for-hire rate recession is finally over,”