Achieving 100x Scale with GenAI

In the past few weeks, I've journeyed from the picturesque landscapes of Croatia to the bustling cities of the Middle East (Oman, UAE, Qatar, Iraq) and U.S, presenting at conferences, engaging with startups, meeting ministries, dignitaries and visiting conventional companies. Amidst these diverse experiences, one common thread has emerged - the transformative power of Artificial Intelligence.

The world of work has been evolving for decades, with knowledge being distributed and shared among professionals with diverse, multidisciplinary skills. This group intelligence has been the driving force behind successful organizations, propelling them to work at a productivity level twice as fast as their nearest competitors. However, as I traverse the globe, I'm witnessing a dramatic shift in this dynamic, a shift driven by AI.

AI has gone mainstream

I had presented about a theory that has always fascinated me - it is about accelerating your productivity to exponential scale, perhaps even factorial scale. This concept is hard to grasp and it clearly dividing smart folks to believers and those who aren't able to conceive that it can actually do something dramatic for us.

The AI revolution is dividing people into two camps. One camp vocally asserts that AI will not replace humans. The other camp remains silent, not out of fear or ignorance, but because they are witnessing the disruptive potential of AI. They understand that AI can revolutionize any industry, even without a complete understanding of the specific business.

Probing a "boring" industry with Gen AI

Consider the oil and gas industry, traditionally reliant on a group of specialists such as geologists focusing on sedimentology. These specialists would come together, share information, and apply their knowledge to existing systems. However, these systems lack the speed and scalability to operate at 10x or 20x the current pace. This is where AI comes in, offering the potential to boost productivity by a scale of 50 or even 100.

Here are some sample prompts where I asked GPT a few basic questions.

No big deal, right?

Then I asked it a more complex question. NOTE: I picked this from an online article that was proposing some form or correlation to boost upstream exploration. I have ZERO understanding as this is not my domain of expertise.

The answer:

Then I asked about Sonic Logs...

As my curiosity grew, I was asking more complex questions (this was just in a few minutes!)

so much for a boring, protected domain, right? WRONG! A group of dusruptors are coming and they will upend even boring industries.

100x Organizations and Workers are coming fast!

The notion of a ’100x organization’ encapsulates the idea of an entity that is able to harness the power of technology to scale hundredfold, redefining the traditional boundaries of growth and productivity. Generative AI serves as the linchpin of this transformative journey, enabling organizations to optimize operations, unlock new opportunities, and leapfrog their competition. This concept is no longer a utopian fantasy but a tangible reality for organizations willing to embrace this cutting-edge technology.

Excerpt from my upcoming position paper titled "Achieving 100x scale with GenAI"

The concept of a '100x organization' is a testament to the transformative power of technology, particularly Generative AI. These organizations, often comprised of just a handful of employees, are leveraging AI to achieve unprecedented levels of productivity and efficiency. They are redefining the traditional metrics of success, proving that size is no longer the determinant of an organization's potential.

In this new paradigm, the key to exponential growth lies in the strategic application of AI. By automating routine tasks, AI frees up valuable human resources, allowing employees to focus on strategic, high-value activities. This not only boosts productivity but also fosters innovation, as employees have more time to explore new ideas and opportunities.

Generative AI provides organizations with the tools to unlock new avenues of growth. By analyzing vast amounts of data, AI can uncover hidden patterns and insights, enabling organizations to make data-driven decisions and stay ahead of market trends. This gives them a competitive edge, allowing them to outpace their rivals and capture a larger market share.

The benefits of becoming a '100x organization' extend beyond the organization itself. By driving productivity and growth, these organizations contribute to economic development, creating jobs and wealth. They also serve as role models for other organizations, demonstrating the potential of AI and encouraging its wider adoption.

However, becoming a '100x organization' won't be easy. It requires a willingness to embrace change, a deep understanding of AI, and a commitment to continuous learning and improvement. But for those organizations that are willing to embark on this journey, the rewards are bound to be dramatic. They stand to not only transform their own operations but also to reshape their industries and redefine the very notion of what an organization can achieve.

Cost of training and inferencing is dropping real fast

The advent of Generative AI, including DALL-E-2 and ChatGPT, is revolutionizing the productivity landscape for knowledge workers, with AI coding assistants doubling efficiency. Concurrently, the cost of AI training is plummeting, with a 70% annual decline rate, making large language model training increasingly accessible.

By 2030, AI is set to quadruple knowledge worker productivity, potentially injecting an astounding ~$200 trillion into global labor productivity. This figure dwarfs the current total knowledge worker salaries of ~$32 trillion, underscoring the transformative potential of AI in reshaping the future of work and the global economy.

The Great Decoupling: Performance and Productivity Paradox

The advent of AI, much like the introduction of electricity, is a paradigm shift that is fundamentally altering the way we perceive and interact with systems. Electricity allowed us to decouple machines from their power sources, leading to a shift in focus from merely reducing fuel costs to designing vastly more productive factories. Similarly, AI is enabling us to decouple prediction from decision-making, shifting the value proposition from merely reducing the cost of prediction to creating vastly more productive systems.

AI's predictive capabilities are transforming decision-making processes across industries. By providing accurate, data-driven predictions, AI allows organizations to make informed decisions quickly and efficiently. This not only reduces the cost of prediction but also enhances the overall productivity of the system. Decisions that once required extensive human effort and time can now be made swiftly and accurately, leading to improved operational efficiency and strategic advantage.

Moreover, the decoupling of prediction from decision-making opens up new avenues for system design and innovation. With AI handling the predictive aspect, organizations can focus on optimizing other elements of the system, leading to more innovative and productive designs. This shift in focus is fostering a new era of creativity and innovation, driving the development of systems that are not only more productive but also more adaptable and resilient.

In essence, AI is not just a tool for reducing costs or improving efficiency. It is a transformative force that is redefining the way we design and interact with systems, much like electricity did in the past. As we continue to harness the power of AI, we can look forward to a future of vastly more productive systems and unprecedented growth.

The Old World vs. The New World

The old world, which was relatively new just a few years ago, has suddenly become antiquated. It's stuck in first or second gear, unable to conceive the idea that their domain understanding could be swept away by a small group of people leveraging AI. This group can scan the surface and subsurface, analyze 20 or 30 different data streams, and come up with questions that have never been asked before or find answers to questions that seemed ludicrous.

In contrast, the new world is thinking at a scale of expanding productivity by a factor of 100. There are ongoing discussions in the venture capital community about building a billion-dollar enterprise with just a handful of people. This idea may seem inconceivable, but it's becoming a reality.

The Future of Work

The future of work is changing. My own productivity has shot up to 25 times what it was before, thanks to AI. I'm publishing newsletters, writing research papers, and optimizing business operations with my startups. AI is helping me do a lot more with a lot less. It's about asking the right questions, about trusting your group intelligence, and putting that into a tool.

The future companies will not hire based on your resume or your skills. They will hire based on how intuitive, ingenious, and creative your questions are. They will want to know if you can ask those questions to a public interface like ChatGPT or a private interface developed inside companies.

The Era of the Uber Professional

We have entered the era of the Uber professional. One person could literally do the job of 100 people. This is how a professional will become a factorial professional or an exponential professional. This future is not 10 to 15 years away; it's probably going to be the next 18 months.

Companies will have to make strategic decisions. Should they continue to play in their old world mode, or should they cash out? The new future will be defined by companies that embrace these rapid, fast-paced technologies. Your personal digital assistants will be like an army of people serving you.

This is the future I envisioned as a child, a future where all questions from all domains could be answered. Today, we have interfaces that can do that for us. Thefuture is about asking the right questions, the complicated, difficult, and seemingly impossible ones. This is the future I believe in, a future where we achieve a 100x scale with GenAI.

The AI revolution is not just about technology; it's about redefining the way we work, the way we think, and the way we interact with the world. It's about embracing the power of collective intelligence and leveraging it to drive unprecedented growth and productivity. It's about moving beyond the constraints of the old world and stepping into a new era of exponential possibilities.

In this new world, the power of one is amplified a hundredfold. One question can unlock a hundred answers. One idea can inspire a hundred innovations. One person can achieve the work of a hundred. This is the promise of GenAI, and it's a promise that is being fulfilled right now.

Concluding Thoughts

As we stand on the brink of this new era, we must be prepared to ask the right questions, to challenge the status quo, and to embrace the transformative power of AI. Only then can we truly unlock the potential of GenAI and achieve a 100x scale.

So, let's step into this new world, armed with our questions and fueled by our curiosity. Let's harness the power of GenAI and redefine the future of work. The journey may be challenging, but the rewards are boundless. After all, in the world of GenAI, the sky is not the limit; it's just the beginning.