According to a New Report, You Should be Very Afraid, as Robots will Steal 800 Million Jobs in the Next 13 Years

By Jack J. Kelly

Recently, I have written about disconcerting trends in the job market, including the rampant downsizing of workers in the mid-40’s to late-50’s– in an effort to save money on their relatively higher compensation compared to the fresh-faced 22-year-olds, who are also underpaid and told to just be happy that they have a job not flipping burgers or serving artisan coffee. Also, companies have been rapidly deploying people in lower-cost cities and countries in an effort to save costs by cutting out the middle-management level that tends to frown upon moving from comfortable suburbs, like Long Island, New York to India. Even though the trek into Manhattan isn’t easy on the LIRR, it’s much better then telling your kids that they have to leave their friends and school, pack-up, and move to Mumbai.

The most alarming threat to millions of jobs is the intense effort that Silicon Valley tech guys are putting into developing artificial intelligence, software, and “robots” to replace people. Before you scoff, hear me out: I’m not a Luddite or technophobe. There have been numerous articles surfacing about this topic with cute pictures of amiable robots, which make you think, “Nah, this is nothing to worry about.” Well, you’re wrong! You should start worrying about those adorably, convivial robots.

It’s all about cost savings. For many companies, human capital, which is a fancy way for corporate executives to refer to actual real-live people, account for the biggest expense. So, while my accounting skills are bad, if you have way less people on your payroll, companies save a lot of money. Also, last I checked, software, technology, artificial intelligence, and robots don’t need benefits, vacation time, or sick days. They won’t take coffee breaks or waste company time gossiping.

McKinsey & Co., the large management consulting firm, recently published a report (covering 46 nations and more than 800 occupations) with distressing, dismal conclusions for all workers– both white and blue collar alike.

The report concludes that 800 million workers worldwide will be adversely impacted and could lose their jobs to robots and automation by 2030. This is about a fifth of today’s global work force. In the US alone, 39 to 73 million jobs may be eliminated by 2030.

The research offers a bleak outlook for the future. It is also a little disturbing to hear the arrogance and lack of concern over people’s future career options. A McKinsey partner, Michael Chui, told Bloomberg news, “We’re all going to have to change and learn how to do new things over time.” Mike, tell that to the people who are losing their jobs; I’m sure that it would be comforting to them! How realistic is it for a truck driver (with only a high school education, earning a nice living) who loses his job due to driver-less vehicle technology to cross-train and become a computer programmer?

According to the research, the U.S. middle class has the most to fear, with office workers and others involved with skills that can be easily replicated by technology. This would hurt lawyers, bankers, accountants, and many other professionals. Their wages would drop precipitously to keep them competitive with robots and automated systems.

According to McKinsey, “Income polarization could continue in the United States and other advanced economies. If reemployment is slow, frictional unemployment will likely rise in the short-term and wages could face downward pressure.” That is Management Consulting jargon for “Yup, millions of people will be screwed over by technology, lose their jobs, and have little chance for finding new ones that pay as well as the last one.”

The study tries to be positive by offering new potential sources of work. They claim that plenty of new jobs should be created by the healthcare demands from aging populations and gardeners (I swear, I’m not making this up). Yes, don’t despair; if you like gardening or taking care of the elderly, you have a new career after being a banker for 30 years.

McKinsey notes that “…governments will have to develop and provide extensive job retraining to help displaced workers as well as providing more generous income supplements. Beyond retraining, a range of policies can help, including unemployment insurance, public assistance in finding work, and portable benefits that follow workers between jobs as well as possible solutions to supplement incomes, such as more comprehensive minimum wage policies, universal basic income, or wage gains tied to productivity.” Once again, please allow me to translate: if nothing is done to regulate or at least acknowledge this trend, millions of people will be forced to be on some sort of government welfare or hand-out program. To believe that people with 20-plus years of specialized-experience and earning a good living can all of a sudden be trained in a completely different field (and continue to earn a decent living) is naive and disingenuous. 

The reality is that Silicon Valley techies and the money men behind these ventures will get ridiculously rich and everyone else will be spurned and negatively impacted, as a result of this trend.

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