The Accidents of Strategy.

The conventional strategic planning process was grounded on a meticulously designed set of initiatives that delivered competitive superiority in the marketplace.? This strategy formulation architecture has been steadily unravelled over the past decade, partially dismantled by accidental, unforeseen events well beyond the control of any organisation. ?Accidental events and the surprising opportunities they sometimes present, have always had a disproportionate impact on every sphere of human endeavour; business, economic, social, cultural, political, technological and even on the evolution of life itself.?

The natural world offers powerful lessons on the ability of accidental events to deliver unintended consequences, some that are beneficial and others that are harmful.? The origin of all life on earth began with the random, accidental coupling of molecules leading to the improbability of life, with all its amazing complexity.[1] ?The evolution of diverse life-forms then emerged through a cascade of accidental genetic mutations, some of which surreptitiously emerged as beneficial, allowing life to flourish.?

Take for example, the aftermath of the massively destructive asteroid strike on earth 66 million years ago, which eliminated about half the genera of animals on earth.? Emerging from the darkness, however, were smaller mammals that evolved into diverse species, ultimately leading to the development of our human-like ancestors, the hominids.[2] ?The journey of these early hominid ancestors over the past 5-6 million years as they developed into modern humans, was propelled by accidental pre-adaptations, biological functions acquired by chance that later proved to be beneficial. ?This endowed the hominids with the adaptive ability to navigate an evolutionary maze, ultimately becoming the dominant species on our planet. ?These accidentally acquired pre-adaptations; such as being land-based species with a large body and brain, the manipulative grip of the hand, a high-energy meat diet, the ability to control fire and create divisions of labour, all synergistically led to the evolution of language, art, music, culture, science and technology.[3]??

The process of evolution of human civilisation closely mirrors the process of evolution of life itself; the cumulative outcome of a series of random, accidental events that appear to create order out of apparent chaos.? The American geographer Jared Diamond highlighted the accidental role that environmental factors played in shaping the history of humankind.? He argued that the major axis of the Eurasian continent was oriented horizontally across longitudes, while the major axis of the Americas, Africa and Australia was oriented vertically, resulting in a much greater need to adapt to changing climatic conditions when humans migrated vertically across latitudes, versus migrating horizontally across longitudes with similar climatic conditions.? The Eurasian population could therefore spread much more easily across the horizontally-oriented continent.? Further, the natural availability of domesticable animals and plants was much higher in Eurasia, compared to the wild animals and plants on other continents.? Diamond concluded that the transition from a hunter-gatherer society to a more productive farmer-producer society about 11,000 years ago therefore began in Eurasia thousands of years earlier than in other continents, resulting in a lead in the development of new technologies, civilised societies and powerful armies.[4]? Civilisational progress is an unintended consequence of accidental geographic realities.

The more recent journey of human civilisation was partly driven by what British historian Ian Mortimer called the four horsemen of the apocalypse - conquest, war, famine and disease; these, often accidental, unforeseen events drastically?altered the course of human history.[5]? The Renaissance in 14th century Europe saw remarkable progress in the arts, architecture, music, science and literature.? This glorious period, however, was accidentally kindled by the dreadful black death, the bubonic plague of 1347 that killed tens of millions of people, shaking religious faith and encouraging patronage for the arts and sciences, thus awakening a cultural revolution.[6]

Early milestones in human progress from the discovery of the America’s by Christopher Columbus, to Newcomen’s steam engine, radiation, X-ray’s and the spinning jenny, all were accidental discoveries that spurred industrial advancement.[7]? Take the example of the Scottish physician, Alexander Fleming, who on returning to his lab after the holidays in 1928, noticed a mould growing on a culture of Staphylococcus bacteria, with the organisms around the mould destroyed by a liquid secreted by the mould. ?This liquid was penicillin, the world’s first anti-biotic, that quite accidentally revolutionised the field of medicine.[8]? Similar accidental events triggered the creation of American Express travellers cheque, the invention of Teflon, IKEA's self-assembly furniture and even bubble wrap.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic unexpectedly accelerated the pace of adoption of video-conference technology, transforming tele-commuting and the world of work, as well as the adoption of tele-medicine, with one billion virtual healthcare sessions just in America in 2020.[9] ?In India, the pandemic forcefully drove the adoption of hygienic practices across society, even deep into the hinterland, more than any deliberately planned public health messaging could achieve over many decades.

Organisations similarly encounter periodic accidental events that de-stabilise the foundation of carefully deliberated strategic plans. ?These moments also provide a window of opportunity for the tactical adoption of novel, emergent strategies that could spur growth.? The ability to harness hidden opportunities provided by these often unforeseen events, by dynamically blending them into a redefined strategic plan, strengthens the adaptive capacity of an organisation.? The French microbiologist, Louis Pasteur, presciently said ‘chance only favours the mind which is prepared’.[10]? Those leaders that are prepared to embrace these chance opportunities, will be able to leverage these accidents of strategy, to meet their organisation’s destiny.

References:

[1] ?Ridley, Matt. 2020. How Innovation Works. London: Harper Collins.

[2]? Alvarez, Walter. 2016. “Laws or comets?” Aeon, November 3, 2016. Accessed October 28, 2020. https://aeon.co/essays/how-chance-and-probability-affect-the-path-of-big-history.

[3]? Wilson, Edward O. 2012. The Social Conquest of Earth. New York: Liveright.

[4]? Diamond, Jared M. 1997. Guns, Germs and Steel: A Short History of Everybody for the Last 13,000 Years. United Kingdom: Vintage.

[5]? Mortimer, Ian. 2014. Centuries of Change: Which Century Saw The Most Change?. United Kingdom: Random House.?

[6]? Gelb, Michael. 1998. How to Think like Leonardo Da Vinci: Seven Steps to Every Day Genius. New York: Random House Publishing Group.

[7]? Bhaskar, Michael. 2021. Human Frontiers: The Future of Big Ideas in an Age of Small Thinking. United States: MIT Press.

[8]? Tan, Sy, and Y Tatsumura. 2015. “Alexander Fleming (1881–1955): Discoverer of Penicillin.” Singapore Medical Journal 56, no. 07: 366–67. https://doi.org/10.11622/smedj.2015105.

[9]? Zakaria, Fareed. 2020. Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World. United Kingdom: Penguin Books Limited.

[10] ?Pasteur, Louis.1854. Lecture. University of Lille. 1854. Quoted in Vallery-Radot, Rene. 1923. Life of Pasteur. Forgotten Books.?