Accelerating the path to autonomy

Issue #245, March 27, 2024

For autonomy to increase in driving, it is not just the onboard embedded technologies that are accelerating, but a basket of technologies across the automotive ecosystem. Smart roadways for example are the latest addition to a suite of technologies intended to deliver the self-driving revolution. Tesla is stepping up promotion of the driver-assistance technology it calls “Full Self-Driving capability. Below the $100/kWh threshold we seem to have crossed, electric vehicles (EVs) will be cheaper than petroleum-powered counterparts to buy as well as run. On the negative side, new data suggests that some official figures severely underestimate the emissions plug-in hybrids produce, due to driver behaviour. Car insurance is getting more expensive in the US due to higher repair cost and time. The EV world is becoming increasingly bipolar - Made in China, or not. Below are some recent updates reported in media.

Smart highways for autonomous driving

Smart roadways are the latest addition to a suite of vehicle automation technologies intended to deliver the self-driving revolution. What makes a road “smart”? Mostly, the intelligence comes from capturing data via sensors installed on poles every 200 or 400 meters along the edge of the highway. These devices will collect and communicate information about traffic, weather, work zones, obstacles, and other road conditions. In 2023, the Texas Department of Transportation announced that it would pilot the country’s first autonomous freight corridor on a stretch of SH 130 north of Austin. - Bloomberg

Full self-driving capability

Tesla is stepping up promotion of the driver-assistance technology it calls “Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability, seeking to expand use of the controversial software feature as it confronts the prospect of lower sales growth this year. Elon Musk told employees this week that they are required to take customers on a test drive using the technology before they hand over the keys. He also said drivers with FSD enabled will get a one-month free trial in the coming days. - WSJ

The EV tipping point @ $100/kWH

Battery metals such as lithium, nickel and cobalt are down by, respectively, 80%, 30%, and 25% over the past year. The cells made from them are heading the same direction, with Goldman Sachs predicting a 40% drop in pack prices between 2023 and 2025, putting the global average well below $100 per kWH. That’s a level that carmakers have long viewed as analogous to the technological singularity, the point where AI theorists believe machines will irreversibly take over. Below $100/kWh, EVs will be cheaper than petroleum-powered counterparts to buy as well as run. In China, by midyear, half of all cars sold in the country will come with a plug. BYD is leading the charge. - Bloomberg

Plug-in hybrids and driver behaviour

Plug-in hybrids are supposed to be the best of both worlds—the convenience of a gas-powered car with the climate benefits of a battery EV. But new data suggests that some official figures severely underestimate the emissions they produce. According to new data from the European Commission, plug-in hybrids produce roughly 3.5 times the emissions official estimates suggest. The difference is largely linked to driver habits: people tend to charge plug-in hybrids and drive them in electric mode less than expected. - MIT Technology Review

Costlier car insurance

Car insurance is getting more expensive in the US. The average annual premium for full coverage auto insurance rose to $2,543 in 2024 — up 26% from the previous year, according to Bankrate. Factors such as longer repair times and more expensive rental car costs are resulting in rising prices, according to a report by the American Property Casualty Insurance Association. Also, cars are becoming costlier to fix. - CNBC

A bipolar EV world

Automakers are becoming more conscious of where they get certain parts and where those vehicles can be sold, to avoid sanctions. The rise of EVs is dividing the global auto market into two: one that welcomes China-made cars, and the other that effectively rejects them. - WSJ