A Case for Fossil

I am often invited to strange meetings and events. I have narrowed it to the act of opening my mouth. I have thought of taking a vow of silence to save myself. But then again that would mean I would not have so many fond memories. This time I uttered the words “It’s not about the technology, it’s not about innovation, it is about the slow and hard work of getting an infrastructure up and running at scale, improving governance, institutions and the broader macro environment in a very connected world affected by a pandemic.” I then received an invitation to a dinner to explain myself.

I arrived with my wife. I always ask to bring her. There is a famous quote “Man is a barbarian tamed by marriage.” To this day I am not sure of all the cutlery positions to signal to the host. I make do with verbal gestures, though this is often seen as uncivilised. So, my wife, a big shot who speaks 4 different languages and can play any instrument is my saviour. I copy her plate. This has its drawbacks as my wife is two thirds my weight and eats only half my plate size. I have sometimes popped into a McDonalds after a fancy meal.

The engagement started off very simply. We sat down, were brought our starters for our meal, and Mr. Humphry said “Victor, tell us about Africa.”

I decided to start off coy. “Which part?” I asked. “There are 54 countries.” He didn’t seem to like that, but his wife did. I could tell where all the humour was in their relationship. While I saw him start to seethe, I reached down and took out my second dinner guest, my dear friend Betsy - my laptop, pre-loaded with important graphics. “And within those borders are even greater disparities. A lot can be understood about Africa not by country boarders but by tribal borders.” 

I showed him the image of Africa’s tribal boundaries. He seemed impressed by it, although a bit confused. “Yes, Africa is not as united as it seems. This is where the source of many modern conflicts arises, particularly in the sub-Saharan states. The concentrations of small tribes in condensed areas, especially.”

Mr. Humphry ate through his starter in silence, and I did as well, before he continued the point. “Why don’t you explain what’s wrong with our thinking?” he asked. 

“I have a thing for the use of language.” I started. 

“If you look at development rhetoric the seventh Sustainable Development Goal’s main indicator is Electrified Homes.”

"To be more specific" I continued, “indicator 7.1.1 ‘Proportion of population with access to electricity’, a reference to residential use. But the majority of electricity consumption in the world comes from Industry not Residential” I showed him another picture, a graph detailing the energy use by sector across the world. “As you can see, worldwide, the majority of energy usage comes from Firms, that is Industry and Commerce. It is not Residential.”

“So, the development world, and its cheap money, is trying to get electricity to homes while overlooking the biggest consumer”

“Ahh but if you increase residential usage do you not increase total consumption?” asked Humphrey. 

“No, Cecil -” I started

“Mr Humphrey to you” he insisted

“No Mr Humphrey, you are doing the classic mistake of ignoring the African consumer’s purchasing power. A large proportion of the population in Africa have little in the way of consumption and there is a large concentration at the top." 

“But you can say that about any place” said Humphrey

“That is true,” I said, “but the scale is different. Africa is a bit unique as a developing sector. That top one percent of sub-Saharan African spend an average of $20 per day. Significantly below the threshold for places like Europe and the United States.”

He looked surprised. “That is low.”

“It is not all doom and gloom though. The various African countries have done a great job of moving a great proportion of people from below the $2 per day. It currently stands at around 40% of the population far removed from 70% in the 80s. But 99% are still below the $20 per day ceiling.” 

Mr. Humphry looked confused. “I thought I read somewhere that the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise to 2 billion by 2050.”

“Yes, this is the legitimate reason for looking into Residential to make sure they don’t live in poverty. But it forgets the teachings of history. Which is, first an integrated grid which powers Firms, who employ people, this raises purchasing power and ability to buy household goods like a fridge, washing machine or a dishwasher.”

“But isn’t solar doing this?” chimed Humphrey.

“Yes, solar is doing this. It is in line with the goal of the International Energy Agency modern access criteria of 50 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per person per year. But if you have a ceiling of spending per adult of $20 per day and a floor of about $2 you need a lot more electricity. You need enough electricity to create jobs, Firms. Technologies like Solar have done a good job helping the individual African, but they are very weather dependent. You still need back-ups." 

“Don’t forget to tell them about the current power statistics in Africa Darling.” said my wife, always seeking an opportunity to raise her voice. 

“Yes, dear” I snapped back. I don’t like interruptions while on a roll.

“Now, off-grid is a big deal in Africa. It is part of the same machinery that has moved a large number of people above the $2 per day poverty line. But we need to do more. We need to look at the next wave and breaking past the $20 per day ceiling. The population of sub-Saharan Africa will be the biggest by 2050. Currently more than 50% of the population do not have access to electricity.”

At this point entree arrived. A fine Gravalax, a northern dish of dill-seasoned cured salmon. It stole my attention for a moment, and I lost my train of thought. I could tell Mr. Humphry did as well, though. We were at an impasse.

“Uh, where was I?” I mumbled.

“The power statistics,” my wife whispered. 

“Ah, that’s right, the legacy of no infrastructure in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2019 installed power generation capacity in sub–Saharan African countries was 100GW with a population of 1.1 billion. To give you an idea of how low that is, Germany with a population of 83 million has an installed capacity of 211.31 GW.”

“I see, there is a need for a massive investment push into Africa” Humphrey started. “with the climate change initiative there is a chance to leapfrog and limit emissions!” he exclaimed

“Honestly, I don’t think that’s the right approach” I finished while tucking into my Gravalax. Its soft succulent flesh just melting in my mouth.

“Explain!” Humphrey insisted. 

“Current emission in Africa as a whole are 1,000Mt of CO2 while the world’s emission is 34,000Mt of CO2. That’s not even 1%.  Total developed countries plus China emissions are 21,000Mt of CO2. At the same time Africa has an infrastructure funding gap valued between $67 - $107 billion annually. While the developed countries have a fully functioning electricity grid. This electric grid is the key, because both current and any new climate change technology plug into an existing grid. If you have no infrastructure the new technology doesn’t solve much.”

Everyone seemed to agree. 

“Africa needs to build an electricity infrastructure system from scratch. This should weigh the upcoming bill of population growth and climate change. If I may be bold, Africa cannot afford to not increase its emissions to give itself the room to accommodate its needs.”

This last point didn’t sit well with the host. The idea of increasing emissions to people in the northern hemisphere is bringing up a great taboo.

“Would you like to go into the Sauna Victor” Humphrey’s wife changed the subject noticing tension in the air.

I eagerly took up the offer.  

There I was enjoying the fresh heat when the door opened. Here in the north, it is customary to go to the sauna together. As an African and conservative by nature being clumped in a 2m by 2m room naked with a naked old man is not my idea of bonding. 

Humphrey bent over and placed a log into the furnace while saying “I agree with what you are saying but it does go against the grain a bit.” 

I stayed silent. There was too much going on to form a coherent thought. “Yes,” he continued “Africa does need to invest in infrastructure to propel its industry to raise its living standards. But what do you think is the solution?”

“Fossil” I said

By now I came to understand Humphrey and his ticks. When agitated he flapped his legs. In the current environment this was of great distress to me. My chatty self went into hiding trying to claw its way back to the surface. I looked straight up while saying “you see…erm…the efforts of things like solar and wind ... but …erm…Africa needs mass electricity. Developed countries have supplements like Nuclear energy which Africa does not” 

By now tears were running down my face. The act of looking straight up got me into contact with hot air of the sauna. Hot air rises but looking down or eye level was hazardous to my well-being.

“I find it unfair to tell 50% of a rather huge population that they cannot move up the ladder because they shouldn’t take advantage of their abundant natural resources for the well-being of a person in a developed country”

“What do you mean for the well-being of a person in a developed country” exclaimed Humphrey.

By now my burning rage against lop sided development rhetoric enabled me to look eye level 

“Well, Africa’s emission is only 1% of the world’s total. Let us use the famous Cetris Paribus. If Africa doubles its current electrical capacity and produces 2% of the world’s emission. Is that a high price to pay to move some people out of poverty? In the United States, computer games consume $6 billion worth of electricity annually — more power than electric water heaters, cooking appliances, clothes dryers, dishwashers, or freezers. Why are we not asking the US to play less computer games when their total emissions are 14% of the world’s total?”

“Would you like a beer?” said Humphrey.