ACARA Data Analysis for Schools
ACARA Data Analysis for Schools
What can be learned from the 2022 ACARA data for schools?
The 2022 ACARA data nationally was released earlier this month.
Whilst it does not tell us the 2023 situation, we can see the enrolments data now from 2008 – 2022.
The biggest learnings are
We want to show you the winners (and losers) from the data over the last few years and feel the major period of interest is 2019 (pre-Covid) to 2022 (first full year of the post COVID period).
The National position can be best shown as follows:
The critical numbers I wish to draw your attention to from 2019 - 2022:
It appears that many students have moved from Government Schools to Independent Schools.
I liken it to if the share market is up 10%, you really should be measuring your individual situation on whether you have done better or worse than the average (+10%), and assess your own decisions or those of your advisors on that, not just that you have made a “profit”.
If you are only up 5%, then you have gone backwards compared to the market, and if you made 15% - you have done very well!
Each school needs to consider this in light of their own circumstances. Many of the “sandstone” schools may have not wanted additional students, already had strong waiting lists, and just took in the additional enrolments that they felt was appropriate.
Other independent schools that were new, or in a high growth area may have used this opportunity to grow rapidly. During the COVID years, the rush to Independent schools was probably due to a perception that they offered better home schooling and this has created big opportunities for rapid growth.
What is the current outlook for Independent schools?
The economic news worldwide is indicating we may be coming into some form of recession, and this includes Australia. It is widely spoken that the interest rates and the “cliff” many people are arriving at as they move from fixed to variable interest rates will start to have a serious effect on people’s disposable income.
On top of that, we have just had news of the Victorian budget, and the targeting of large Independent Schools with Payroll Tax, and a general further tightening of the Victorian economy.
The exodus to Independent Schools from the Government Schools is probably over, and we may see some reversal of these effects. It will not be sudden, as people do not like to move their children unless absolutely necessary.
The effects are likely to start in the reduction of future enrolments inquiries, and a possible whittling away of what may have been very strong future enrolment lists.
Our view is to not become complacent as you may currently feel that your future enrolments exceed your targets for numbers, but be aware you need to stay strong, or you could reverse the trend fairly quickly.?
The Catholic system has seen a slow reduction over a large number of years. They need to be very aware that many schools are now going past a realistic breakeven point, and are not staying competitive with Government schools, let alone the lower fee Independent Schools.
The next set of numbers are the ACARA data (by state and territory) and the particular cautions I like to mention are that some Catholic schools in NSW (mainly) are classed as Independent schools, and many of the Islamic schools are classed as Independent, which can cause strong growth in that sector especially in the new migrant areas.
Individual data by State
New South Wales
NSW has seen a big reduction in Government sector attendance with an actual drop of about 11,000 students just from 2021 to 2022. The Catholic sector has risen strongly, and the Independent sector the most over the three year period.?
Victoria
The Government sector has grown quite well, if still below the average market share. The Catholic sector has suffered badly with a tiny loss between 2021 and 2022. The Independent sector has flown over the 2019 – 2022 period.
Queensland
Strong growth across all school sectors of 4.41% over the 2019 – 2022 period, partly due to internal migration within Australia. The Independent sector grew the strongest and the Catholic sector improved its market share.
Western Australia
Strong growth across all education sectors of 3.88% over the 2019 – 2022 period. The Independent sector grew the most with 9.02%, whilst the Catholic sector picked up market share and the Government sector did not keep up with overall growth.
South Australia
South Australia had low growth over the three year period, and the Government sector was hit the hardest with a drop of 2.46%. The Catholic sector flourished and exceeded the increase recorded in the Independent sector.
Tasmania
The State’s growth was low over the period and the Government sector fell in market share. The main winner was again the Independent sector with a 10.41% increase.
Australian Capital Territory
There was strong growth of 4.84 % over the three year period. Maybe due to strong Government spending, the Government sector basically kept up with the overall ACT increase (4.52%), and Catholic and Independent sector only grew by 5% each.
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Northern Territory
Total number of school students decreased by 1.46%, and all sectors of education dropped small amounts, with the Independent sector staying identical to their 2019 numbers whilst the Catholic and Government sectors dropped away slightly.
Individual Schools
The ACARA numbers also give us the ability to look at every individual school in Australia (9,000+).
We have added the data for all of the schools into the Spectrum Analysis Australia Online Mapping Systems.
Here is a sample of data to demonstrate to you what can be shown in our GeoMapping Plus system.
An Independent school in Sydney:
? School Name: XXX
? Website:? XXX
? Campus Type: School Single Entity
? School Sector: Independent
? School Type: Combined
? Full Time Equivalent Teaching Staff: 149.3
? Full Time Equivalent Non-Teaching Staff: 82.9
? Total Enrolments: 1573
? Girls Enrolments: 1573
? Boys Enrolments: 0
? Student/Teaching Staff Ratio: 10.5 students per FTE teaching staff
A small Catholic Primary School in Melbourne:
? School Name: XXX
? Website:?XXX
? Campus Type: School Single Entity
? School Sector: Catholic
? School Type: Primary
? Full Time Equivalent Teaching Staff: 17.3
? Full Time Equivalent Non-Teaching Staff: 9.4
? Total Enrolments: 241
? Girls Enrolments: 117
? Boys Enrolments: 124
? Student/Teaching Staff Ratio: 13.9 students per FTE teaching staff
Summary
The ACARA numbers give us a very good look at how schools are tracking by State and Territory, down to individual schools.
If you would like some further assistance, please contact us directly.
Co-Founder and Managing Director
Spectrum Analysis Australia
Suite 6, 407 Canterbury Road, Surrey Hills, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia 3127
+61 3 9830 0077 or +61 411 604 921
Offering Demographics and Mapping for Schools as well as data resources and mapping tools for admissions and enrolments analysis.
Available as a PDF you can download/print at https://spectrumanalysis.com.au/wp-content/uploads/20230524-ACARA-Data-Analysis-for-Schools-By-Peter-Buckingham-Spectrum-Analysis-Australia.pdf
Retired High School Principal , proud Irish, Scottish, English, Northwest European and Christian heritage, proud Australian.
1 年Thanks for the data Peter. I specifically looked at the secondary context as it is where I’ve spent 45 years. There are different results from the overall numbers and perhaps needs a drill down. Amazingly SA was quite different to other states and territories. Another story to hear.
Director of Marketing at Faith Lutheran College, Plainland | Strategic School Marketer | Founder of School Marketing Manifesto
1 年Thanks for sharing this important analysis, Peter.
Independent LinkedIn Specialist - Digital Mentor, Coach, Author, Educator, Consultant, Career Development Practitioner, Founder, Gigster, Keynote Speaker, Trainer, Poet, Writer, Business Social Marketing, AI??
1 年A comprehensive analysis Peter Buckingham - and some interesting conclusions and comparisons across the different states and territories of Australia!