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The rise of robots and automation has been growing heavily in the workplace during the past decade. According to a report published by Oxford Economics , the number of robots in use worldwide multiplied three-fold over the past two decades, to 2.25 million. Trends suggest the global s tock of robot s will multiply even faster in the next 20 year s, reaching as many as 20 million by 2030, with 14 million in China alone. The implications are immense, and the emerging challenges for policymaker s are equally daunting in scale.[1]

However, as technology is evolving at a very rapid pace; it is possible to see that the invention of robot s is not limited anymore to the manufacturing field but can expand to become a part of most of the businesses . There is a probability that robots can become manager s in any company, analyse data to evaluate problems and provide business solutions, set employees goals and even monitor their performance. Another factor that can accelerate the adoption of robots in the workplace like never before is the outbreak of COVID-19 worldwide. Martin Ford, a futurist who has written about the ways robots will be integrated into the economy in the coming decades said that “people usually say they want a human element to their interactions, but COVID-19 has changed that.”[2]

The urge for social distancing to limit the spread of the virus has opened up various opportunities to automation. Companies had to decrease the number of their working forces then find alternatives, especially for the jobs that can not be completed from home. To that end, many companies have already started relying on robots like Walmart, America' s biggest retailer, that is using robots to scrub its floors or the robots in South Korea that have been used to measure temperatures and distribute hand sanitizer as reported by BBC.

This report will shed the light on the pros and cons of the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence (AI), and their effect on the economy and society . In addition to, the role that governments , educational institutions and even businesses can play in preparing for this future uncertainty that is still an assumption, and we still have a little knowledge about.

“AUTOMATION, MACHINES ARE REPLACING SO MANY JOBS. MANY PEOPLE THINK THAT ONLY THE POOR AND UNEDUCATED ARE BEING DISPLACED. I’M AFRAID THAT IN A FEW YEARS EVERYONE WILL BE REPLACEABLE"

BY A RETIRED FEMALE WITH POST GRADUATE DEGREE (79) USA - PWC REPORT [3]

Pros & Cons of Robots

?From our experience using various automated machines and instruments in our daily lives, the pros of robots can be easily identified. Robots are like any other programmed machine; they can work non- stop (24/7) without getting tired, they are fast and can increase the production in any company. They are more accurate and make fewer mistakes than humans, a fair comparison can be the calculator, since its invention, it has facilitated our lives and gave human beings the ability to perform accurate calculations with less mistakes . Finally, they are more reliable than humans as they are programmed to perform, and finally they never complain. 

 On the other hand, robots has cons as well, and the most significant one is that they can be the reason for human beings to lose their jobs , they need constant energy to run (mainly electricity), hence affecting the environment. They have restricted programming, so this makes them perform few tasks in many of the cases , and they have no emotions . They can suffer expensive malfunctioning and repairing. Moreover, they can cause cyber- security problems by opening the doors to any breach in data or even to hacking their systems. Finally, robots can pose potential physical danger on people in case any malfunctioning happens in their systems .

Why Pros & Cons?

To tackle the topic with an open mind, it is crucial to state the pros and cons of robotics and artificial intelligence. This can serve as part of the analysis to conclude whether this aspect has an ultimate negative effect on human beings, or it can be a coin with two sides . As an insight on what was stated above, robots have advantages that can be used to make our life easier and more efficient in some cases. However, misusing these machines and AI might cause disastrous outcomes that can directly harm human-beings . So, it will be wise by individuals and concerned entities to further assess and analyse what they really wish for.

Impact on the Economy

Various articles and research reports have highlighted that the effect of robotics and AI on the economy will be a positive one on the short, medium, and long term. However, to further, analyse their effect on taking over the jobs of humans , there are various conversations that discuss this topic.

Economic Performance: automation can be a catalyst of economic growth in the world. McKinsey Global Institute estimated that AI may deliver an additional economic output of around US$13 trillion by 2030, increasing global GDP by about 1.2 % annually .[4] Moreover another study by PwC estimated that global GDP may increase by up to 14 % (the equivalent of US$15.7 trillion) by 2030 because of the accelerating development and take-up of AI.[5]

Geographic Impact: PwC report stated that the two countries that will stand to see the most economic gains are North America and China, Both are expected to achieve high marginal impact due to AI-commitment on productivity that will be the largest driver. Both countries will achieve enhanced GDP by 26.1% for China and 14.5% for North America in 2030, equivalent to $10.7 Trillion and accounting to 70% of the global impact.

Impact on the Labour Force: as mentioned, about 20M robots will take over human jobs by 2030. Moreover, PwC estimates that 362M jobs will be impacted by AI. However, the impact of robots and AI on labour is not ultimately negative. Below we will discuss their advantages and disadvantages for labour.

Impact on the Labour Force

A 2016 study by Analysis Group (funded by Facebook), considers that AI will have both direct and indirect positive effects on jobs, productivity, and GDP. Direct effects will be generated by increased revenues and employment in firms and sectors that develop or manufacture AI technologies, which may also create entirely new economic activities. Indirect ones will come from a broader increase of productivity in sectors using AI to optimise business processes and decision-making, as well as increase their knowledge and access to information. All together envisage much more modest gains (US$1.49-2.95 Trillion) over the next decade.[6]

Hence, while robots and automation are taking over entire categories of jobs, new opportunities and jobs will be created that require highly skilled people to operate them. Another advantage of robots is that they can perform various jobs that human beings can't do, like heavy lifting and can assist people in completing duties in a less timeframe, which in turn, can be beneficial for individuals and facilitate their lives . But various resources have pointed out that the main working force to be affected will be the low performing people, there is a high-risk that this category will be substituted by robots to increase efficiency and productivity .

Impact on Society: Many Negatives and Few Positives

The social effect of robots and AI can be assumed by taking the internet, mobile phones, and social media as examples of technology that have become an urgency and an integral component of every society. The consequences that are clear at this period of time can be identified in four points. As was mentioned in the Pros section, robot s are fast and productive, they work accurately making almost no mistakes and can-do whatever task they are programmed to do perfectly . This will directly affect individuals, specifically the segment that has a low performance or is not up-to-date about the latest inventions and requirements of this new competitive working environment. Hence, a large chunk of the society will be working constantly and under pressure to keep pace with the increasing digital and informational world to secure that they do not lose their jobs. People will have to learn how to quickly adapt and cope with this change amid the stressful and fast-moving environment.

The second aspect can be attributed to the effect on human interactions that have been already impacted by the rise of mobile phones, internet, and social media. Integrating robots as part of our lives can further create boundaries between people. As a result, humans might over rely/ depend on robot s and give a little attention to the importance of human relations and communications . Moreover, having a robot as a norm to help people pursue their daily duties can promote laziness and dependency .

Another group of people that will impacted largely by the introduction of robots is children. Robots will become part of schools , the same way computer s and iPads are essential in almost every learning system nowadays , kids are smart and can easil y figure out that robots can do their homework in an excellent way . So, this can cause a negative social impact on the future generations . Lastly, robots can contribute to various good causes and leave a positive impact on the society if it is used to help the elderly, assist in saving people during natural disasters, security and protection in dangerous zones and so on….

Future Planning by Governments, Educational Institutions and Businesses

GOVERNMENTS, EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS, AND BUSINESSES SEEM TO HAVE AN APPETITE FOR ACQUIRING AND SUPPORTING THE EVOLUTION OF ROBOTICS.

Governments: National Governments are rallying to invest in the current robotics R&D worldwide due to their interest in acquiring economic competitiveness, said the International Federation of Robotic.[7]

Educational Institutions: The educational robot market is expected to register a CAGR of 16% over the forecast period (2020-2025).[8]

Businesses: The global market for robotics is growing far faster than expected and is projected to reach $87 billion by 2025, according to new research by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).[9]

Collective Efforts: Although there is a large support from all the entities mentioned above, but I believe that they can play a role in regulating and mitigating this revolution for the sake of mankind.

Huge Steps Forward

This report outlines how robots can add value to the workplace and humans’ lives, but on the other hand, how they can leave a negative impact on the working force; as well as, the society, where their rapid increase in the workplace and life in general, could intensify the existing economic inequalities. Robotization poses a fundamental dilemma for policymakers, who must balance the potential gains of long-term growth with the short-term pain of social dislocation.[10]

A framework for an action plan should be collectively put in place by governments , policy makers, schools, universities, and businesses to take as many advantages of this evolution while mitigating its side effects and controlling its growth, so that this excessive digitization won't become a progress trap in the future.

Governments’ Role: governments , who are number one driver to fund this evolution, should look beyond the competitive advantage aspect. Their scope can include an in-depth research and analysis on the direct and indirect effect s of digitalization on the economy, workplace, and the society . After this , some clear guidelines and policies must be put in place to regulate this development to protect businesses , workforce, and societies . In my humble opinion, a quota related to the number of robot s being used in ever y company can be allocated by local government s depending on the size of each company . This can mitigate the risk of increasing the rate of unemployment in ever y country , while giving the right to companies to take advantage of this digitalization to increase their efficiency and productivity . Moreover, to further justify relying on robots , governments can segregate the working fields by labelling them as high-risk, medium, and low risk domains . Then, allocate the usage of robotics accordingly.

Educational Institutions should start playing a proactive role in this evolution, by mapping the career s of the future. As the non- skilled people will be affected the most by this digitalization; it is crucial that schools and universities start thinking and tailoring programs that are aligned with the new demands of the shifting skills in every local economy. To equip people who have different sets of skills for the future, educational institutions can work closely with local industries to develop up-to-date approaches that shift the mindsets of the workers of tomorrow to believe in the lifelong learning process and the necessity of the on-the-job training courses . In addition to this, the majors and specializations that are currently taught in universities should be evaluated and reinvented to introduce a whole new spectrum of majors that can prepare millennials and generation Z for the professions that are about to take place in the near future.

Businesses have already started implementing many technological solutions, it is deemed that they will continue relying on digitalized solutions to achieve future growth. Thus, businesses will continue adopting and updating their technologies as this field evolves amid the competition that continues to intensify globally and locally . But the responsibility of these businesses lies in communicating, educating, and preparing their workforce to what is about to happen. Businesses, now more than ever, should invest in training their employees while they are working on their robot’s adoption strategies.

Humans have been the real asset of any company, and the basis that company’s success is built on, so companies should create this balance between employees and robots.

In conclusion, the dilemma of AI and robotics is an extraordinarily complex one, technology is already being applied in industries and businesses, but the future seems to be extremely different from what we are used to have. It is obvious that the digital revolution is likely to attain some positive results related to improving efficiency at work and providing new inventions . But there is nothing inevitable about how smooth the process will be. The way the companies will follow to react to this evolution will be a key in increasing productivity without further growing inequalities by leaving people on the way side. Although the economy will improve and production of goods, services will increase, but if people are unemployed, then their purchasing power will decrease.

The huge production and efficiency are not the only factors for economical proliferation, the strong purchasing power that leads to an increase in the consumption is what will keep the economy strong and sustainable. Hence, this economical cycle must be studied carefully within the context of the welfare of human beings.

An important question should be raised here, will the evolution of digitalization be a progress trap? After all, it is likely that this digitalization can be a progress trap, where the continuous development and growth of this sector can go out of control, placing a huge amount of problems in the face of governments and political systems. To solve the problem of economic growth and productivity; robots and AI contribution to increasing unemployment can lead to a societal collapse and again an economic recession where production is way larger than demand or even the purchasing power of individuals. It is significant that governments start acting strategically in regulating when, how and why these new revolutionized technologies can be used, or else the problems will be out-of-control and even more complex to solve.

References:

[1] How Robot s Change the World. Accessed on 26 Jul y 2020

[2] Corona Virus : Will COVID-19 Speed Up the use of Robot s in the Workplace. Accessed on 26 July 2020

[3]Workplace of the Future. Accessed on 27 July 2020

[4] Notes from the AI Frontier Modelling the Impact of AI on the World Economy . Accessed on 28 July 2020

[5] Global Economics Impact s Associated with Artificial Intelligence. Accessed on 28 July 2020

[6]The Macroeconomic Impact of Artificial Intelligence. Accessed on 29 July 2020

[7] Robotics R&D still driven by Government Initiatives worldwide, says IFR report. Accessed on 29 July 2020

[8] Global Education Market Assessment 2020-2025. Accessed on 29 July 2020

[9] Global Spending on Robot s Projected to Hit $87 Billion by 2025. Accessed on 29 July 2020

[10] How Robot s Change the World. Accessed on 30 Jul y 2020

Thank you

ROSETTE FARES