AAAW #5 - The Tipping Point (3)

Super busy as the quarter comes to a close - but got to keep chugging along!

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The last factor - the power of context - actually refers to how environmental effects can influence epidemics. This is fairly obvious, but what is interesting is how the tiniest or most unexpected things can have a major influence on the development of a situation. This is encapsulated in the butterfly effect, where relatively miniscule phenomena (a butterfly flapping its wings) could eventually have a far-reaching ripple effect on subsequent events.

Malcolm originally used the example of the bystander effect, where the number of people present results in an apparent diffusion of responsibility, lowering motivation to act in members of the group. I thought it wasn't very relevant to illustrate this, so let's just go with chaos theory instead.

In the next case study, Malcolm brings up crime rates and the broken windows theory. As a background, crime rates were at an all-time high in the early 90s - but something tipped, and they took a dramatic decline over the next decade. An interesting theory shared is the Broken Windows theory, which states that visible signs of disorder and crime can foster an environment that encourages further crime and disorder. In this case, the key driver behind of an epidemic (in increasing or reducing crime), isn't a Connector or Maven or Salesperson - but a physical characteristic like graffiti.

Gunn, who was hired by the Transit Authority to fix the reliability and crime issues plaguing the NY subway at that point - was a strong believer in this theory. He set about ensuring that the graffiti-caked cars were scrubbed clean, as he felt it was symbolic of the collapse of the system. It would form the foundation for subsequent physical changes and management reform, and would take six years to complete.

The next big step was combating fare-beaters: this was seen as a signal just like graffiti, where it was a small expression of disorder that was leading to more serious crimes. When one or two people were seen cheating the system (forcing their way through turnstiles, jumping over barriers), the problem would snowball. They stationed a team of as many as ten policemen at the turnstiles, who would then nab fare beaters and cuff them together. This was supposed to send a signal that they were now cracking down - hard. This resulted in a massive (fivefold) increase of arrests for misdemeanors, and ejections from stations for inappropriate behaviour (threefold). Criminals also started following the rules for fear that a temporary arrest would reveal outstanding warrants and get them into deeper trouble.

Overall, these small, quality of life crimes, served as tipping points for violent crime. By making these small changes, surprisingly large effects could be observed. He interestingly used Zimbardo's prison study (If you haven't read about it, I strongly recommend it. Some of the older psychological studies can reveal some pretty chilling things about human nature. For other similar experiments on how circumstance can really change people, you can check out the Robber's Cave experiment and Milgram's experiment) as an example of how environmental changes can overwhelm even our inherent dispositions. Another experiment shared is by Hartshorne & May, who posited that honesty is not a fundamental trait, but is considerably influenced by the situation. While there are some underlying factors, environment plays a major role in even traits we assume to be consistent across scenarios.

Character, rather than a stable, easily identifiable set of closely related traits, is more likely to be a loosely bound bundle of habits, tendencies, and interests that shift and move based on circumstance and context. It seems stable because most of us are great at controlling our environment. There are interesting implications about how we can use this information: one such example is the Rat Park study done in the late 1970s. This also adds to evidence of the broken window theory - the community and environment can have far reaching effects on the expression of behaviour.

This tendency (to overestimate the importance of fundamental character traits, and underestimating the importance of situation and context) is known as correspondence bias (or the fundamental attribution error). It is far easier for us to assume that one's actions are a result of disposition, versus environment. There are a tonne of studies that demonstrate this fascinating fallacy. (I would strongly recommend reading the Good Samaritan experiment for another example of this at work.) A lot of such biases and fallacies are shortcuts by our minds to make the incredibly complex world around us a little easier to understand.

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Aside from environmental effects, the importance of community and groups are also incredibly important in epidemics. The two examples raised in the book (the rise in popularity of the Ya-Ya Sisterhood book, and the rise of the Methodist movement in America) both serve to illustrate how tight-knit communities help nurture, magnify, and express beliefs and messages. (Another interesting example I came across is the rise of Scientology - which shares many of the same principles behind the success of the former two examples).

One environmental factor which greatly affects the efficacy of such groups is size - the human mind is proposed to have a upper limit on capacity (evidenced via theories like chunking, George Miller's Magical Number 7, channel capacity and more). This capacity extends from not just memory - but to emotions as well. (In fact, Dunbar suggests that a larger neocortex correlates with a larger potential group size, where 150 is the estimated maximum number of individuals with whom we can have a genuinely social relationship). Hence, it makes sense that the most effective groups are limited below 150 in quantity (army units, social clubs, religious groups) in order to prevent the division and alienation that is often present in larger organisations. For an example of a company which uses such a structure (or open allocation / lattice organization) - check out W. L Gore & Associates Inc. (Of course, with more complex products requiring different expertises, this may not be very practical) A fascinating hypothesised benefit of such smaller groups is transactive memories: in groups, we leverage the minds of others to store information. After all, it's easier to remember how or where to get information than the information itself! This is a self-reinforcing cycle, where expertise leads to more expertise down the road. In Gore Inc, that means knowing your team enough to know their skills, abilities - everything needed for everyone to do their jobs effectively.

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The next chapter focuses exclusively on case studies to illustrate the three laws proposed above - good for consolidation of knowledge. Frankly, most of them are pretty illuminating - but I would like to keep most of it for the book and when you read it :) Overall, I didn't go through all of the case studies Malcolm used in his book, but I would say most of them are useful, and at the very least interesting and entertaining. I'd recommend it as a good way to pick up some short stories and examples for small talk :)

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In conclusion, there are a few lessons that we can take away from the Tipping Point.

First, epidemics are often started when resources are concentrated on a few key areas. For example, if you want to start a word-of-mouth epidemic, you might want to consider getting the word out to Connectors, Mavenns, and Salesmen. By focusing on the crux of the issue, we try to solve a problem with the minimum amount of effort, time, and cost. It's hence critical that we identify the key levers of the problem - (is it the stickiness of the message? The efficacy of broadcast?) and take steps to solve them.

Second, intuition is far less reliable than we expect. We have a massive repository of fallacies and biases hardwired into our brain - all to help us better make sense of a crazy, ever-changing world. While this simplifies our thinking on a daily basis, it could also lead us to draw incorrect conclusions.

Lastly, we have to believe that change is possible, where people and environments can radically transform if the right buttons are pushed and the right levers are pulled. Tipping Points are a reaffirmation of the potential for change, and the power of intelligent action.

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This took longer than I expected :) Next week, it's back to completing the basics of cloud computing. Perhaps SQL next?