AAAW #3 - The Tipping Point (1)
Bit of a break this week - I haven't had much time for formal instruction, so I've taken a bit of time to revisit one of my favourite books from Malcolm Gladwell. It's a relatively short read at slightly less than 300 pages - perfect to pick up and put down on a morning commute (when we're back to BAU). Enjoy!
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The two case studies that the books start off with are the meteoric rise of the Hush Puppies brand, and the drastic plunge in crime rates of NYC in the 90s. It's particularly salient because both are examples of epidemics, where have three main characteristics:
> Contagiousness > Little causes can have big effects > Change happens at one dramatic moment (the tipping point)
It's interesting to note that while contagiousness often brings up biological connotations (COVID-19, anybody?), it extends to far beyond nature's creations. Malcolm's example is on yawning - including the aural (hearing someone yawn), and visual (seeing or even reading about yawning). I'm sure nobody can deny the virality of certain content on YouTube, Vine (RIP), and TikTok.
The second point on little causes having big effects is more about our implicit assumption of proportionality in many things - a small cause should have a small effect and so on. Concepts like geometric progressions, exponential scales are often less than intuitive, simply because they are not often particularly obvious in real life (compared to the vast majority of examples which play by the proportionality rules).
Lastly, the titular topic: tipping points. It's interesting to consider the case studies that he brought up: on fashion trends, on technology adoption, on crime, and more. It's funny to note that there are many such points all around us: the freezing / melting of water and ice; the spark that ignites a blaze - all departing from the rules of graduality.
Malcolm posits that there are three rules behind epidemics, which he explores in detail:
The Law of the Few The Stickiness Factor The Power of Context
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The law of the few suggests that in all epidemics, there are a few super-spreaders who are largely responsible for causing the situation to spiral out of control - for good or for worse.
We see this in the gonorrhea outbreak in Colorado in the late 80s - early 90s, where a few particularly promiscuous individuals caused the scales to tip. A particularly famous super-spreader - Typhoid Mary - was suspected of infecting at least 53 people with typhoid fever. Because of certain unique or rare characteristics that certain individuals hold, they become particularly effective at spreading or influencing others. Beyond disease, this can similarly be seen in fashion trends and other social epidemics.
The case study that Malcolm raises is the Paul Revere's legendary ride through the night to warn the colonial militia of the British's impending advance. There were definitely other riders sent to spread the word, but their messages were purportedly less effective. He'll use this example to breakdown three types of people who were instrumental in such an epidemic - Connectors, Mavens, and .
After doing a bit of fact-checking, it appears that the details to this are shrouded in controversy as to the exact effectiveness of Revere's ride. Nevertheless, if we purely use it as a hypothetical example, it does help to illustrate Malcolm's point.
His example is a psychological study performed by renowned psychologist Stanley Milgram, used to illustrate the existence of Connectors. I recommend you take a look at some of his other studies, which can be quite chilling regarding human nature). This is his small world experiment, which falls under the theory of six degrees of separation. (That being said, I also recommend you read some of the criticisms regarding the validity of the experiment, such as low completion rates and selection bias.) Without going into too much detail, the key to note is that certain individuals knew a disproportionate amount of people - far more than the average. In Malcolm's own example, he listed about 250 surnames, and told people to roughly estimate the number of people they knew who had these surnames. This served as a way to estimate the number of people they know - and the numbers varied wildly from group to group. What was surprising was that there were a few individuals who had enormous scores (over 100), signifying possibly an instinctive and/or natural gift of making friends and acquaintances. Most of us (myself included) shy away from making too many connections. We devote most of our time and energy to nurturing a small circle of friends - and keep the majority of our acquaintances at arms reach.
It takes an incredible amount of effort to maintain such close connections, and quite frankly, I don't have the stomach for it. People with the Connector trait acquire and cultivate social connections well, and are people whom all of us can reach in a few steps. Another key characteristic is that for such people to know so many others, they often occupy many roles in many worlds and niches. By combining these features, they have an effect of connecting a variety of social circles effectively and at a massive scale, acting as some sort of social glue. They are masters at building and maintaining a network of acquaintances, which in turn give the rest of us access to circles entirely separate from the ones we typically frequent. In a nutshell, word of mouth is really about ensuring your message is received by (and liked) by such Connectors, who then amplify the message effectively. If you have the time, I suggest you take a look at Mark Granovetter's article - The Strength of Weak Ties here.
The next group of people we're examining are Mavens - people who, like ravens, hoard large amounts of information. They are often subject matter experts of one or more domains of their interest: Of note is that they do not just passively acquire this information, but often also take active steps to share this information with others. They are socially motivated (versus experts, who may not necessarily be as motivated to share their knowledge). When a Connector gets wind of information from a Maven, that information is strongly amplified - perhaps even more so than if it were to come from a conventional marketing channel, given the Maven's own likeability. As information brokers, however, they are not necessarily persuaders. That's the job of the next group - Salespeople.
They often possess some sort of magnetic personality - something more than canned responses and scripts. Often a blend of sheer enthusiasm, energy, joy, and more that is somehow contagious to the people they interact if. This extends to even how subtle facial cues can influence an election (I'll leave it to you to read the exact examples in the book). Some of these hidden or unknown cues could be responsible for our decision-making, and great Salespeople either knowingly or unknowingly tap on these factors to persuade us towards their own agendas. Another possible theory raised is that of emotional contagion (check out the wiki link) - where certain people, armed with certain physical characteristics or mannerisms that make their emotions particularly contagious, are able to send and convey their feelings to drive their own outcomes. As an aside, I would like to direct you as well to this study I came across in my undergraduate years, and thought would be particularly salient in this case: how facial expressions can directly affect mood.
The traces of these three groups of people are often found in one way or another in the epidemics we encounter today. Perhaps you can think of how you came across a viral video most recently - was it one of your friends who (like always), shares content frequently? Or was it via a content aggregator like Reddit?
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It's been a fairly busy week as we approach quarter-end: the next few articles will continue the remaining chapters of the book until I can (hopefully) claw back a bit more time for self-learning later in the month. Stay tuned!