The 90% Conundrum

Right!

?We've been told the Government's plan is to get 90% of the eligible population vaccinated and we can move into their 'world-leading' traffic light system.

Okay.?

?I have a question though – is that 90% of the eligible population today, tomorrow, next week, next month …? ?I ask because as a business owner I am sick and tired of the moving goal posts this Government keeps changing.

?This lack of certainty plays havoc with business – mine and the other approx. 500,000 others in New Zealand. ?I ask because I know (from overseas) things will change (things that are foreseeable – but what do I know right? I'm not an expert the Government keeps saying they rely on).?For example …

• ?I expect children aged 5 to 11 will be approved for vaccination in NZ probably before the end of this year.?If that happens, that will increase the number of eligible people to be vaccinated by approx. 476,000 and at the same time drop the percentage of vaccinated eligible people.
• ?I know the effectiveness of the vaccine declines with time (although there is plenty of argument about how long) so boosters are now being rolled out overseas to keep everyone's immunity up.?And once boosters become relevant, Governments overseas change the definition of vaccinated to exclude anyone who hasn't had the necessary number of jabs (including boosters) – i.e. if you have had two jabs five months ago and are currently defined as fully vaccinated today, in another month or two (assuming boosters are now required) you may find yourself defined as unvaccinated again until you get your booster and have passed the required two weeks post-booster period.?

In each case, the number of vaccinated changes (goes down with people not boosted) … and the number of eligible vaccinated goes up (by children).?Either way, the percentage of eligible vaccinated people drops and gets further away from the 90% target currently being dangled in front of everyone.

If we restate the vaccination figures today to ignore those who were vaccinated more than six months ago, then the percentage of vaccinated people drops from 72% to 70% (based on latest MOH data to 26 October 2021).?Not a huge drop at the moment, but that will drop faster as we get closer to Christmas and more so into 2022.?If people don't get their booster shots as fast as when they got vaccinated, then the booster requirement will erode whatever vaccination percentage we might achieve.?Unfortunately, the reality will be a drop off of boosters compared to original vaccinations as people get tired/bored/annoyed with the changing goalposts and continual excuses of Government why freedoms aren't being returned.

?If we look at the five to eleven-year-olds, the percentage of eligible vaccinated drops from 72% to 65% (again based on latest MOH data to 26 October 2021). That pushes us further back delaying the time to reach that 90% target and getting some freedoms back.

?Combine the boosters effect with adding children, and the eligible vaccination rate drops from 72% to 63% (based on latest MOH data to 26 October 2021).

?One step forward … two steps back!!?That 90% target is starting to look much harder to realistically achieve.

?To be fair, this assumes our Government will add 5 to 11 year olds into the mix … AND/OR … will mandate booster shots to previously vaccinated people in an effort to stop vaccinated people ending up in hospital … BEFORE we get to the targeted 90% and changing to their' world leading' traffic light system.?

?It is possible our Government may do neither.

?But I don't make my decisions about what I do based on possibilities.?I make my decisions based on how probable any possibility is or not.

Based on other countries, I believe it is more probable than not we will see children aged 5 to 11 added to the eligible vaccination group.?I also believe it is more probable we will see the change in definition of vaccinated and unvaccinated to account for people who have (or have not) received their required booster jabs within the required time periods.

?Also, the Government doesn't have the best track record in terms of keeping their word.?Two months ago they were saying absolutely no to vaccine certificates.?And here we are today waiting for the release of the new vaccine passport system they are creating. So I have little reason to believe they won't follow other countries like USA and Australia and vaccinate children, and require continual boosters … if you want your freedoms back.

?If I'm right, I believe the 90% vaccination rate of the eligible population will be impossible (and for me as infinite possibilities, I don't say this lightly) … unless they go door to door and forcibly jab us (which I suspect is a bridge to far – at least I hope that's the case).

?And don't forget this ignores the other elephant in the room?… new mutations of Covid.?If you believe the Government and its Press, Delta is the 'game changer' at the moment.?What about Delta plus??What about lambda??What about [insert next mutation variant here]??There are going to be ongoing mutations (the reasons why might surprise you) and my guess is each mutation will be ramped up somehow to validate ongoing vaccinations to 'save us'.?The result will most likely be quicker boosters … maybe more enforced vaccinations … who knows anymore??Our Government doesn't appear to have many limits to what it wants to do … as long as they have their experts and scientists behind them to justify whatever they decide.

Okay … so where does that leave us as business owners (and employees this is relevant to you too because without a business employing you, you won't have a job).

?I think it leaves us in the position where we need to stop focusing on the carrots the Government keeps dangling in front of us and reacting to that.??

“Instead, I’d suggest you stop relying on the Government for your hope and make your own hope instead.?Start working through how you are going to live with Covid at home and in your business and just get on with it.??Vaccinate or not.?Isolate or not.?Mask or not.?The choices are all yours.?

?However, whatever you do, I only ask one thing.

?Please don’t agree to the division our Government and Press are enabling.?This isn’t about the vaccinated or unvaccinated.?It never was.?It’s about the virus and how we all live together with that virus – vaccinated and unvaccinated.?If we can’t live together with the virus, “the team of five million” is dead.?“They are us” is dead too.?I don’t know about you, but the NZ I lived in would never let that happen – covid or not!?We would pull out that number eight wire and find a way for all of us to live together with covid … vaccinated or not.?Something our Government seems incapable, and/or maybe unwilling, to do.

?Good luck!”

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