#9: beyond ??

G'day!

Last Wednesday I woke up with a dry cough and developed a fever. The first night was rough and scary. I stared at the ceiling of my isolation chamber and feverishly imagined the virus attacking my asthmatic lungs.

After three days the temperature subsided and I was up just in time to provide tea at a distance to my wife who had by then come down with it. Pleased to report she seems to be on the mend.

We can't confirm whether it was C19 or not because in France there are no tests for those not at high risk, and, according to a report from an afflicted friend, not even for those who report to hospital with severe but not critical symptoms. Personally I know at least 12 others who've been down with it with mild-ish symptoms, none of whom are counted in the official figures.

For much of the time I was sick and delirious, I was convinced that the 2020 I seem to be experiencing was clearly the wrong one. There is a better 2020 out there in the multiplicity of universes somewhere, we just need to find our path back to it.

Let's do it.

ABOVE THE FOLD

• ?? dystopia catalyzed

BELOW THE FOLD

• ???? the lock up thing
• ???????????? physical distancing

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ABOVE THE FOLD

?? dystopia catalyzed

Shocks to the system like this accelerate us into a new world. We could already see the outlines of it, and now it is here, catalyzed into being by an unseeable scourge:

• Surveillance Capitalism will get a rocket up it. The value of knowing where people have been and who they've been in contact with, and what their temperatures are has just become priceless. In China the epidemic was managed by the government monitoring people's mobile phones and their temperatures. Apps beep if you are close to a person carrying the virus. Governments will give lip service to civil liberties, but restrictive laws keeping people in their place will be passed and those in power will be reluctant to cede it once granted. The rights handed to the state to control this pandemic will be redeployed to quash civil disorder, protest and dissent.
• Shut ins. We have been atomized. Now that we are all locked into our dwellings, how many young people - countless numbers of whom will have lost their jobs and their vision of the future - may just find it easier to stay where they are. Japan, into it's third decade of economic stagnation, has maybe 10 million people locked in, living isolated from society.

• Universal Basic Income. Mirthless chuckle here from Andrew Yang. Hundreds of millions out of work with no prospect of a new job anytime soon. Welfare states run down over decades. However many lives we save from health risks through physical distancing policies, it will seem minor in comparison to the rise in economic distress, mental health challenges, businesses and lives interrupted. Yet governments are doing "whatever it takes", with trillions in economic assistance and corporate welfare programs to try and reverse the impact of shutting down the global economy for two quarters. This shock may usher in a version of Yang's Universal Basic Income, a policy that would see everyone's basic needs met by a modest regular monthly payment. It could help make the transition to the next economy, one that will be fuelled largely by:
• Automation. Amazon is hiring 100,000 workers to cope with the upsurge in #staythefuckhome demand. And at the same time, in the next recovery, many companies will likely invest in robot technologies to do what those workers could do. A completely automated economy wouldn't need to shut down just because the meatware has to stay home. This has been happening not-so-slowly for along time. This crisis will accelerate the process.
• Geopolitical Competition. If you thought America First-style nationalism was a thing when the world was growing, wait until this depression really digs in. Leaders newly emboldened by an environment that encourages travel bans, stopping goods and services flowing freely, restricting the freedoms of their own citizens and demonizing foreigners will start really flexing their muscles. It is all so very 1930s.
• The green economy. On the upside, if there is one thing the world could have done to address the climate crisis, it is pretty much this: just stop. Our skies are chemtrail free now the global airline fleet has been grounded. Industries have ground to a halt and roads are empty. At a minimum, two quarters of economic growth will see a massive hit, and all this will likely have an impact on global carbon emissions. The number of people who will die from coronavirus is likely to be smaller than the number who would have perished of air pollution-related disease, without this swift and radical reduction. It is likely that people will think twice before taking a trip in the post coronavirus world, now that we've figured out that an hour on Zoom can work almost as well as two nights in a crappy foreign hotel. And there is a good chance investors will look towards green solutions in the post C19 economy.

For a longer, perhaps more optimistic read, here are some other experts opining on how the world of tomorrow will be different after the crisis subsides.

What longer term impact can you see from the C19 shock? What good things will come out of it?

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BELOW THE FOLD

???? the lock up thing

Schools have shut until the summer. Families have been suddenly thrust into new, closer roles. Stretched parents, not only newly working from home - if they are lucky - now acting as school supervisors, teachers, administrators and disciplinarians on top of everything that's needed to keep a house running. Even without having to fill out a form to go to the supermarket. Because households had so much slack in the first place!

One of those stretched parents (one with more slack than most perhaps) is Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, who has found himself sharing a home office with his two teenage daughters:

For me, the best way I’ve found to get past this anxiety is to focus on what I can do each day to make a small difference.

Each of us, wherever we are, has the opportunity to do the same – take an action driven by hope, a small step that makes things a bit better.

Good advice, perhaps. It is tempting in times of crisis to look out over the horizon and imagine how things might be in four or six months, or the decisions we might take when things get back to normal. Yet the short term must dominate: making rent, building structure for the household, engendering a sense of purpose in the now rather than the next.

It is a leadership moment for all of us. Dig deep everyone.

What are you doing to give yourself and your family purpose? What tips do you have for others struggling in this new, unfamiliar and unwelcome situation?

???????????? physical distancing

Since we invented the term here last week, thanks team, "physical distancing" has become a thing. Even the World Health Organization recommends practicing "physical distancing, not social distancing".

Since lockdown, virtual drinks, parties and game playing have also become a thing, and it has been lovely to have many best wishes flowing into the household from all over the world as we battled the viral infection.

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That's it for this week. Thanks for reading! Please do share.

Remember, scientists around the world are on their way to a cure for this thing. hopefully some good news for newsletter #10 next week!

Mike