- Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has overtaken Labour in a YouGov poll for the first time, with 25% support.
- Labour dropped to 24%, and the Conservatives fell to 21%.
- Though within the margin of error, the poll signals growing anti-establishment sentiment ahead of May’s local elections.
- Reform UK appeals mainly to working-class, Brexit-supporting voters, with strong support in the Midlands and northern England.
- The party’s rise poses challenges for both Labour and the Tories, while Farage’s ties to figures like Elon Musk add to its prominence.
- American job quitting hit a four-year low in 2024 as the labour market cooled
- Quits fell 11% from 2023 and 22% from 2022’s peak, with fewer job openings and slower hiring, especially in white-collar industries.
- While unemployment remains steady at 4.1%, job searches are tougher, and companies are focused on cost control.?
- Some companies are cutting jobs or automating instead of hiring.
- Economists say the market can keep cooling without major layoffs, but future trends depend on business investment and Federal Reserve policy.
- Trump’s potential trade war with the EU is raising concerns in Northern Ireland, which remains part of the EU customs union under the Windsor Framework.?
- If the EU retaliates against US tariffs, Northern Irish businesses may face duties on US imports, putting them at a competitive disadvantage compared to the rest of the UK.?
- While exports to the US could be rerouted via Great Britain, imports face stricter checks.?
- The situation presents a political challenge for PM Keir Starmer, who seeks closer EU ties but must navigate unionist frustrations over Northern Ireland’s unique post-Brexit trade status.
- The UK’s key interest rate, SONIA, has risen for five straight sessions as the Bank of England drains excess liquidity by reducing bond holdings and ending loan programs.?
- This signals banks are paying more for overnight deposits.?
- The BoE’s quantitative tightening is driving borrowing costs higher, though repo operations provide liquidity support.?
- SONIA’s movement is crucial for financial markets, and as liquidity tightens, money market volatility could increase.
- SONIA (Sterling Overnight Index Average) is the UK’s primary overnight interest rate benchmark, reflecting the average rate at which banks borrow sterling from other financial institutions overnight. It replaced LIBOR in 2021.?
Harry Mills | Director, Oku Markets
Chief Market Analyst | Expert in Macro Strategies, Financial Media, and Real-Time Data Insights | CMT Certified
3 周Europe is swinging to the right: Italy, Netherlands, Germany, & France. The US has had a swing to the right. The last Labour 'win' in the UK masked a swing to the right (when you looked at the total votes for Conservatives and Reform). This is not a surprise to see this coming out in the polls. A move to the right has been building for years across the West. Disillusioned voters, failed multicultural assimilation, controversial gender policies, fragmenting social networks, growing loneliness amongst the old, disconnected groups in communities, struggling NHS, a rising cost of living, & younger workers priced out of the housing market. If the Labour Govt does not quickly address the economy this will become a landslide shock for the UK politcial landscape. Many voters are clearly not happy in the UK. Yes, they voted the Labour Party in, but it was really about getting the Conservatives out. If one credible voice for the right emerged they would win a landslide. The problem with Reform at the moment is that they are great at pointing out the things that are going wrong, but not clear on how they would tackle some of the UKs growing list of problems. Is it any wonder that many of the most affluent UK citizens are relocating?
Helping companies flourish | Business acceleration through alignment | Growth | Transformation | Import | Export | Go to market
3 周Point 3 is particularly interesting.