The 8 billion baby was born today. Will she benefit of a clean energy utopia?

The World's green renewable bonanza will sentence 3.5 billion people to death in energy darkness.

Today, 15 November 2022, the?United Nations?projected the world's population to reach eight billion people (8,000,000,000), most probably in Africa. They also predict that it could take another fifteen years to reach nine billion and then 10 billion by 2080.

The UN projects that the countries that will lead this growth until 2050 will be the: DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.

If I have to guess, I would say that statistically, the 8 billionth baby who was born today is probably a?Congolese girl. Luckily, she will survive the 1 in 10 odds to live past the age of five, but her future will be very challenging. The 8 billionth baby will be born in Africa, where children are most vulnerable: she will experience thirst and hunger, she will be most likely malnourished and exposed to diseases like malaria, leprosy or tuberculosis. Her chances of studying, travelling abroad, debating about art, connecting to the internet, becoming a YouTuber or breaking the glass ceiling in the corporate world are almost nonexistent.

"This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates. At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another"?said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goal #7 commits the world to end energy poverty by “ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all by 2030” but, despite this goal and the inspiring words of the Secretary-General, in past seven decades since the UN was created, the advancements and progress have benefited just a few countries.

Fossil-fueled Wealth Creation

Between the 1950 and 1970s and on the back of low-cost, easy-to-use-and-transport fossil fuels like?coal and oil,?the World's economy grew tenfold, and so did the energy inequality. The main beneficiaries of this fossil-fueled wealth?were countries like the USA, United Kingdom or Russia.

The energy gap is such that today 3.5 billion people -40% of the world's population- don't have access to reliable power, and 1 billion lack access to electricity at all.

The increasing costs of fossil fuels, combined with an push for a transition to only green forms of renewable energy and in addition to the current lack of infrastructure, poverty levels and expected population growth?will make it almost impossible?to improve the quality of life of most developing countries. It will further increase malnourishment and hunger, and delay advancement in access to clean water and to the infrastructure needed for health, education and safety.

A child born today in Australia will consume in 3 days the same amount of energy that the average African will use in one year.

It is a chicken and egg situation. We know from the experience of the last 100 years in industrialised countries, that following investments in energy security, we observe immediate effects in access to food and water, healthcare, education and productive employment, all of which contributes to reducing fertility levels, slowing global population growth and improving life expectancy.

Since the modern industrial era, western countries benefited from incredible levels of wealth creation by burning cheap fossil fuels contributing to over 96% of the additional carbon emissions that triggered global warming. In the same periods, full continents like Africa, Asia or Latin América, contributed only fractionally and in some cases from reversible actions like bushfires or deforestation.

Despite having an abundance of fossil fuels, African oil and gas was mainly used to fuel other economies. Now, as the transition to clean energy gathers momentum, demand for critical minerals such as?copper,?nickel, cobalt?and?rare earth?is also increasing exponentially.?

Africa has an abundance of these resources but I don't expect they will be used in the continent, because electrification priorities are set for the wealthier economies that can afford it.

Stop the boats! They are coming for our kiloWatts!

We should help them tackle their?energy poverty?issues first. Looking for ways to enable them to transition at a slower pace, to benefit from cheap fossil fuels while the wealthy economies compensate for their carbon emissions; yet it seems that the conversation around?#COP27?was only about?climate change adaptation,?and the main concern was to prevent the 150 million climate refugees expected in the next 30 years due to drought, extreme temperatures and other climate catastrophes.

But such a huge investment just to patch up what climate change breaks is not going to make a difference, Africa has a better chance to change its destiny by developing its economies, reducing its inequality and improving its quality of life.

Compared to our first-world comforts, when it comes to energy, making a difference between extreme poverty and just poverty, requires little:

• Cooking:?natural gas is widely used as a versatile cooking fuel that can quickly deliver a range of temperatures without the toxic fumes from burning coal or kerosene. But in poorer countries it is usually only available in relatively affluent urban areas, usually delivered in portable gas cylinders. Something easily available at any backyard barbecue today, yet worldwide we have made almost no progress in reducing the number of people without access to clean cooking fuels and technologies in the last two decades. Today 50 million per year (mostly women and children) still die due to inhaling those smoke.
• Electricity generation:?natural gas, coal and diesel are used to produce electricity in many countries. The benefits that access to electricity provides to people living in or escaping from poverty are the result of the?services?that the electricity provides, not the fuel that was used to generate it. Electrification of rural areas also requires metals and machinery, which are becoming more expensive with the increase in demand for critical minerals.

The benefits that access to electricity provides to people escaping from poverty are the result of the services that the electricity provides, not of the fuel that was used to generate it.

• Transport:?oil and gas power nearly all of the world’s transport sector. People living in poverty are?unlikely to have their car, and infrastructure, such as roads, petrol stations and ports also need to be built to develop the transport systems.

Let's make it better for all of us or else, what's the point?

The world today is faced with a massive challenge concerning stopping the impact of greenhouse gases on climate change. This is a priority and we need to?make the best effort to stop and reverse the global warming trend, and we need to do it for all of us.

Current solutions proposed for the energy transition, with strong focus in inefficient and more expensive forms of energy, will leave populations out of reach of low-cost fuels, effectively requiring them to pay, in proportion to their emissions, an exponentially greater price for energy.

It is morally wrong (I reckon inhumane), to achieve net-zero emissions by irresponsibly accelerating a transition that will most certainly benefit -again- the wealthy economies while bulldozing the future of 3.5 billion people today and another 2 billion to be born, effectively condemning entire populations to to death by energy deprivation.

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