86% Accuracy In Tech Predictions
Peter H. Diamandis
Data-driven optimist inspiring entrepreneurs through research, investment & community to create an abundant future for humanity | M.D. | Futurist | Speaker | Podcast Host | 4x NY Times Best-Selling Author
Ray Kurzweil has a documented 86% accuracy rate in his technological predictions.
"Of the 147 predictions that Kurzweil has made since the 1990's, fully 115 of them have turned out to be correct, and another 12 have turned out to be "essentially correct" (off by a year or two), giving his predictions a stunning 86% accuracy rate."
I’m very proud to be bringing Ray back to spend the day with us at Abundance 360 this year. And whether you join me live at the Summit, or via the livecast through A360 Digital, I can guarantee you amazing insights.
Ray will be participating in two ways...
First, he will join me in a Convergence Catalyzer Session that will look at the intersections between Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI), Nanotechnology and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). How will these three fields will intersect and converge to completely re-organize everything? How will they touch and/or disrupt various industries during the next 10 – 20 years?
Second, Ray will join me in a fireside chat (as in previous years) on predicting the future. My goal is to deliver members unfair advantages and insights on new business models and opportunities.
As you may already know, Ray is a brilliant technologist, futurist, and director of engineering at Google (focused on artificial intelligence and language processing). I’m also very proud that he is my Co-Founder and the Chancellor of Singularity University.
Here’s a few of Ray’s predictions we discussed two years ago at Abundance 360, and the conversation we’ll continue during our dialogue this coming January 21 – 23:
- Late 2010’s: Glasses will beam images directly onto the retina. 10 terabytes of computing power (roughly the same as the brain) will cost about $1,000.
- 2020’s: Most diseases will go away as nanobots become smarter than current medical technology. Normal human eating can be replaced by nanosystems. The Turing test begins to be passable. Self-driving cars begin to take over the roads, and people won’t be allowed to drive on highways
- 2030’s: Virtual reality will begin to feel 100% real. By the end of the decade, we will be able to upload our mind/consciousness.
- 2040’s: Non-biological intelligence will be a billion times more capable than biological intelligence (aka us). Through nanotech foglets, we’ll be able to make food out of thin air and create any object in physical world at a whim.
- 2045: We will multiply our intelligence a billionfold by linking wirelessly from our neocortex to synthetic neocortex in the cloud.
As you’ve heard me say, the only constant is change, and the rate of change is increasing.
Most people have no idea how quickly things are moving. I see my role as the curator of Abundance 360 and Exec. Chairman of Singularity University as providing an “over-the-horizon radar” for our members and our executives.
I’m looking forward to seeing what breakthroughs and Moonshots you create after hearing Ray and the other tech rockstars we’ve assembled (including Astro Teller, head of X; Sebastian Thrun, founder, Udacity; and top leaders in Blockchain, Longevity, Energy and much more).
We are truly living during the most exciting time ever to be alive.
Interested in Joining Me? (Two options)
1. A360 Executive Mastermind: This is the sort of conversation I explore at my Executive Mastermind group called Abundance 360. The program is highly selective, for 360 abundance and exponentially minded CEOs (running $10M to $10B companies). If you’d like to be considered, apply here.
2. A360 Digital Mastermind: I’ve also created a Digital/Online community of bold, abundance-minded entrepreneurs called Abundance 360 Digital (A360D). A360D is my ‘onramp’ for exponential entrepreneurs – those who want to get involved and play at a higher level. Click Here to Learn More.
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7 年One of the few things from Nassim Taleb that I can get behind with a fair amount of enthusiasm is his take on futurism as seen in his book Antifragile, which is definitely at odds with this report.
Manager at SR 70 PROPERTIES
7 年Man-made knowledge and striving to extend life will be the beginning of the end. Dan. 12:4 "But you, Daniel, keep this prophecy a secret; seal up the book until the time of the end, when many will rush here and there, and knowledge will increase."
Entrepreneur
7 年I perceive their focus on people being able to get better and better each year has changed the world...I get up at either 4 or 5 AM excited to get better and better.
Vice President - Sales Strategic IT Sourcing
7 年Great post, I highly recommend Peter's book "Abundance " . It paints a brighter future for all us.