8 Predictions for Libya in 2023

It is no secret that 2022 was a difficult year for Libya. After the failure to hold elections on 24 December 2021, the country witnessed a notable increase in political infighting, human rights abuses, and general insecurity. The UN-mediated political, economic and security tracks that allowed the country to make important progress in 2021 all but collapsed in 2022, and Libya once again found itself with two parallel governments that have questionable claims to legitimacy and are backed by different foreign and local actors. All of these developments have had an acute impact on Libya's population, which still suffers from the effects of prolonged conflict dynamics, institutional corruption and a lack of access to basic services.

Thus, as Libya enters yet another year without a unified government and in an unstable security landscape, it is important to reflect on what 2023 might bring and how this might affect working and living conditions in the country. Here are some predictions taken from the latest Libya Desk | Research, Consulting and Business Support in Libya Weekly Political Risk Report, a weekly publication that keeps clients one step ahead of developments in Libya's political, economic, security, and regulatory environments:

1. Institutional development and governance: The question of sovereign positions will continue to hang heavy over Libya’s political transition in 2023. In addition to efforts to improve transparency and accountability, many of which are likely to be politically motivated, we expect to see serious attempts to change the leadership of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL), along with attempts to replace the leadership of the High National Elections Commission (HNEC). Both these institutions are central actors in shaping the next phase of Libya's political transition, so competition for control over their decision-making processes should be expected to reach new heights in 2023.
2. Oil & Gas: Ongoing geopolitical developments are likely to have a significant impact on Libya's energy sector this year, particularly on the National Oil Corporation’s (NOC) plans to reach 1.6 million BPD by the end of 2023. Recent research conducted by Libya Desk and published in our Energy Insights series has demonstrated how challenges are likely to emerge at the institutional level (i.e. concerning the governance of the NOC and the risks of an institutional split between west-east Libya), the regulatory level (i.e. in the relationship between the NOC, the newly-formed Higher Council for Energy, and the Oil & Gas Ministry), and the security level (i.e. renewed risks of politically-motivated oil blockades and/or attacks on key infrastructure by different groups).
3. Foreign investment: In 2023, it is likely that foreign investment in Libya will continue to be hindered by the country’s unstable political and security climate and an economy that is still overly reliant on the public sector. However, we might see a variety of deals and partnerships being struck in fields such as oil and gas, public infrastructure, defence, and telecommunications as foreign countries involved in the Libyan conflict attempt to utilise their local networks to tap into the country's abundant resources and untapped potential. It is important that any actor who is considering doing business with Libyan entities has a robust understanding of the local environment and the overall geopolitical risk level.
4. Security: The security landscape in Libya is likely to change significantly in 2023. The capital, Tripoli, will almost certainly continue to witness turbulent periods, with the Government of National Unity (GNU) working to achieve a monopoly of violence through its network of state-affliated armed groups. However, this is easier said than done as forces across western Libya more broadly have also begun eying the capital since they know that achieving a foothold in Tripoli ensures access to funds and continued political survival. As such, armed actors will likely play a more active role in the country's political future as they realised in 2022 that whoever holds the keys to Tripoli also controls access to wealth and power.?
5. Politics: Libya is unlikely to see elections taking place this year, however, changes to the two parallel executives are virtually inevitable. Indeed, there does not seem to be a scenario in which either the GNU or the Government of National Stability (GNS) headed by Fathi Bashagha can remain in power, even with the use of force. In fact, this year will likely see more palpable and focused activism channelling the population's outrage against Libyan and international actors, making life more difficult for Libya’s political elite and complicating any efforts to maintain the status quo. Observers should also expect shifts in the structure and leadership of the Libyan National Army (LNA), along with that of some armed actors in western Libya. By the end of 2023, the political landscape will likely not include some of the current status quo actors. Overall, politics in Libya are likely to grow more varied in nature with a high possibility of a return of former Gaddafi-era officials to the scene, along with a new generation of politicians.
6. International relations: Libya's regional ties are likely to continue evolving in 2023, as the country seeks to build stronger relationships with its neighbours rather than looking to a fractured West that is currently preoccupied by other conflicts and challenges. In comparison to previous years, in 2023 international actors are operating with less room for manoeuvre and more reputational and operational risks than before. Regional actors and their competition for influence in Libya will likely escalate in various shapes and forms as alliances shift and new fault lines take shape this year.
7. Social cohesion: The political and ideological divisions that have largely characterised Libya's population in recent years are becoming less pronounced as a result of outright frustration against all political figures and status quo actors. Political actors across the line will struggle to maintain support from their traditional bases as people ask for better services, more security and an end to corruption. This year, Libyans will likely attempt to take matters into their own hands for unsolved issues. For example, tribes in the south may utilise natural resources in their territories to address the arbitrary detention of their relatives and the overall lack of development and attention to the south’s issues. At the same time, Libya’s civil society continues to be suppressed and uprooted. There are serious risks for the survival of a viable civil society in Libya, unless critical efforts are taken to put an end to the criminalisation of civil society activities by various political and armed actors in the country.?
8. Media Landscape: A number of independent media initiatives have emerged in Libya over the past year to counter the monopoly of information held by a few political actors and their international backers, particularly when it comes to local TV channels. This trend is likely to continue in 2023 as society continues demanding accountability, transparency, and development as outlined in Point 7 (above). However, targeted disinformation campaigns and media manipulation will remain a significant obstacle to any genuine effort to stabilise Libya and support its political transition. While the emergence of independent outlets that adhere to international reporting standards is a positive step, this development alone may not be enough to counteract the influence of established disinformation networks. If more effort is not placed into fostering a more productive media environment in 2023, media outlets in the country will continue to be at the mercy of political developments and will be unable to properly fulfil their function as the so-called "Fourth Estate".

This post is an excerpt from one of our proprietary publications, which equip clients with forward-looking analysis on Libya’s politics, energy markets, security environment and regulatory landscape.

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