8 Predictions for AI in HR in 2024

Hi everyone! I know everyone has their hyped predictions coming out in 2024 and I've decided to jump on the bandwagon - some of these definitely align with or overlap the predictions from folks like Anthony Onesto but some I think are quite niche and I am eager to see how these play out in a year that is sure to be filled with new technology, new policy, and new ways of working, as organizations just start to move from the shallow end of the pool to the 4ft section.

Prediction #1: There is at least 1 PR disaster from a rushed AI implementation.

At least one company rushing to implement AI in critical HR functions, most likely an external facing function like Talent Acquisition or one with high visibility to internal employees like compensation or performance management, will generate considerable public backlash and may even get taken to trial. Depending on the severity of the misdeed, this could have broad implications and could even lead to local, state, or federal policy changes in the US or abroad. This is one of those predictions I hope won't come true but it seems to be the case with every new technology.

Earlier this year, a lawsuit filed in Minnesota ( Forbes ) targeting UnitedHealthcare 's nH Predict AI algorithm accused the provider of wrongfully denying extended care claims for elderly patients. We will likely see similar suits follow in 2024 in the AI for hiring space, if companies are not transparent and mindful with how they apply AI in their assessment and selection processes and/or how they apply smart algorithms for their promotion and mobility processes as well.

Prediction #2: At least two Fortune 500 Companies will emerge as leaders in the AI for HR space

Along the Josh Bersin Systemic HR maturity curve, we will see at least two companies reach new ground, ethically and effectively implementing AI solutions into their HR workflows, granting their HR Business Partners, Compensation and Benefits Analysts, Recruiters, et al superpowers in their day-to-day work. We may not see full ROI on these implementations this year, but we will see efficiencies gained - better quality work done in less time with higher employee satisfaction scores. These organizations will meet Bersin's definition of a "Systemic & Problem-Oriented" HR function, operating like an internal consulting firm, connecting people to knowledge and solving complex problems with speed and precision.

美国麻省理工学院 - 斯隆管理学院 already reported that the use of GPT tools can improve a workers performance by as much as 40% in task completion versus workers who do not use such a tool. As organizations effectively weave these multimodal solutions into their existing workstreams, some organizations with appropriate and careful implementation plans, will reap tremendous rewards.

However, many organizations are not adequately structured, staffed, or skilled to reap the full benefits of these new tools. This is why I limit my prediction to two to three organizations becoming the torchbearers, leading us into a broader age of AI enlightenment in 2025 and beyond.

Prediction #3: Autonomous Agents as a Service arise in small use cases in HR

Human Resources has constantly seen new niche HR technology startups emerge and there is an ongoing resurgence with the popularity of ChatGPT. Pre-ChatGPT, the HR Tech market was expected to be valued at $39.9B by 2029 - this is likely higher now. We've seen products go from SaaS (Software as a Service) to PaaS (Platforms as a Service) to iPaaS (integrated platforms as a service like Zapier and Make ). Next we will see AAaaS (Autonomous Agents as a Service).

We will not see these in full scale in 2024 but we will get a glimpse into a future of autonomous agents working in tandem with human beings. I expect in the early stages we will see progress built on top of tools like The Josh Bersin Company 's Galileo? but we will also see more micro-niche products that do certain things so well and implement securely and efficiently will existing technical stacks. We may see those implemented more liberally at start-ups and SMBs, but a few enterprise organizations will likely start dipping their toes in the water and become early adopters, "outsourcing" their AI hiring to external autonomous agents who will specialize in particular domains. A likely use case could be specially trained, outsourceable AI agents that know the HR related laws inside and out for a particular region of the world. An agent such as this could be deployed to an organization, further trained on the organizations internal documents and practices in that country, and could assess for any compliance gaps or even opportunities to consolidate reporting or compliance efforts that can be simplified to save time while minimizing legal risk.

Prediction #4: Revival of IoT and VR/AR for Training and Data Collection

Similar to my AAaaS prediction, I do not think we will see this at full scale. But I do think with improvements made in these industries, many of which may be thanks to AI. We've already seen AI discover the first new class of antibiotics in over 60 years - who is to say we will not leverage AI to unlock enhancements that speed up the adoption of Web3, IoT, and mixed reality technologies? The Washington Post already reported on breakthroughs in the space of virtual reality job training in early 2023.

With sufficient enhancements in these spaces, I expect companies to re-invest or expand existing investments into IoT and VR/AR to speed up time-to-productivity and offer more immersive on-the-job training. Additionally, IoT paired with AI capabilities permits more real-time data collection. There may be some compliance barriers in this space that still need to be hurdled over and I am not expecting a magical metaverse utopia by the end of 2024, but I do think a handful of organizations will begin to use these technologies paired with AI to collect better data, reduce manual data entry by employees, and offer more immersive and effective trainings, especially in roles that involve physical labor.

Prediction #5: Baby-steps towards skills-based organizations

While perhaps one or two of the companies achieving the threshold outlined in my second prediction may get close to having a full skills-based hiring process and a flat organization where workers apply their knowledge, capabilities, and passions to particular business problems based on severity of need, impact, and timing - I do not think we will see this in full-scale in 2024. However, I think we will see meaningful strides towards getting there.

Change management will remain one of the toughest challenges, but it can be easier to manage change during a paradigm shift when workers are already going to under pressure to pick up new tools, new methods of working, and may very likely have new objectives and key results to pursue for EOY 2024. As a result, organizations that can effectively leverage AI, empathy, and education to upskill their employees, revolutionize their organizational structures, and establish an accurate inventory of skills and business problems, will see exponential increases in productivity compared to their peers.

I think what this will most likely look like in 2024 is more cross-functional working teams, de-centralized authorities for certain projects, new data projects to measure, clean, and validate skills identification and quality, and new data projects to evaluate holistic needs for businesses to better manage cost savings against revenue generation at scale.

Prediction #6: HR borrows talent from other functions

Per Gartner, 70% of employees believe they have not mastered the skills they need for their jobs today. The skills most HR employees believe they are lacking relate to digitalization, technology, and data analysis. While upskilling will be a key imperative, organizations will also benefit from borrowing capable talent from other internal teams that have advanced knowledge in data analytics and machine learning, to form cross-disciplinary committees that can leverage the human expertise of existing HR teams with the technical expertise of highly capable ML engineers, data analysts, and the like. These combined forces, paired with AI-powered solutions, will, with the right support and guidance, be able to establish substantial breakthroughs in how their organizations work effectively, efficiently, and with care.

Relatedly, perhaps with the help of AI, the smartest organizations will decrease their technical footprint, actually consolidating their tools instead of simply purchasing more and more technologies to stack on top of one another. By extension of expanding relationships across teams, functions may find opportunities to extend existing contracts with vendors across teams, i.e. Salesforce or ServiceNow may find ways to extend their use cases beyond Sales or IT functions and add value to HR. Similarly, tools like Avature and Eightfold may offer the inverse - opportunities to scale outside their dedicated Talent Acquisition space and support applications in other areas of HR and adjacent spaces like events marketing and even finance.

Prediction #7: A power player in the HCM market takes a tumble

This may be my boldest prediction yet. With new AI technologies emerging on a near weekly basis and companies eager to make progress and deliver consumer-grade experiences in-house to improve employee retention and the quality of employee output, expect HR budgets to, unfortunately, come under more scrutiny in 2024. As a result, the biggest players like Workday , SAP , 甲骨文 , and UKG will continue to roll out new features to try and retain their existing clients and woo prospective new clients. But at least one of these behemoths will likely take a step backwards or be blindsided - either by their existing competition beating them to the punch in the AI space or by a new player emerging with more agility and adaptability, perhaps building an entire new infrastructure from the ground up using autonomous agents and related AI solutions.

I do not know which player it will be - but I firmly believe at least one HR tech titan takes a fall from grace by the end of 2024. Organizations will be looking for the best and they are looking to set the foundation for the next 10-15 years with the solutions and structures they begin roadmapping in 2024. The era of constantly switching vendors is nearing its end as this will put organizations at a steep disadvantage when consistency of data sources and structures will be critical for empowering their future AI toolkits. Expect big moves in 2024 and expect critical decisions as company's contracts with existing providers near their end dates.

Prediction #8: Employee Experience Is The Phrase No One Will Shut Up About

Employee experience has been on everyone's radar for the past couple years and it has been hyped repeatedly in 2023. But it is not going anywhere in 2024; in fact I expect us to hear more about it next year. Ideally this means we will be hearing success stories from organizations revolutionizing their employee experiences with smarter tools, clearer objectives, and psychologically safe work environments but...it may just be a bunch of new white papers and articles from "thinkers" in the HR space. At the same time, analysts predict 2024 may be a rough year with an "Employee Experience recession" on the horizon.

I think with the existing solutions we have at our disposal and the extremely high ceiling of capabilities offered by autonomous agents as a service, we can deliver next-level user experiences, collect more meaningful data, and empower workers across organizations to be more effective, more efficient, and more satisfied in their day-to-day tasks. However, 2024 could be a year of growing pains as organizations shift budgets around and experiment with AI applications. Companies will need to be mindful though - no matter how they shift their directives, Gen Z and millennials have already shown their hand - if they do not like how they are being treated at a company, they will simply leave. So if organizations are going to cut corners in 2024, they better find compromises to keep their employees satisfied or burnout rates, which are already at record highs, will continue to climb.

What do you think? Are my predictions on point? Do you disagree with anything I've projected? Do you have anything you'd recommend or like to add?

I look forward to hearing your thoughts. ??