8 Predictions - 50 years into the future
Saurabh Tak
Investor @ Sagana & Circulate Capital | Planetary and Human health | PhD Synthetic Biology
Greying my hair in the deep tech ecosystem has been both an immensely rewarding and deeply consuming journey. Looking back, what once seemed like a zigzag career path—hard for others to make sense of—now feels perfectly aligned in hindsight. Switching between multiple high-profile labs for my PhD instead of completing it in a single stint or a city gave me unparalleled exposure. Each pivot introduced me to diverse emerging technologies and the unique philosophies of leading scientists across France, Germany, the UK, and India. These experiences not only shaped my current understanding of innovation but also deeply influenced my perspective on the ethics and regulation of emerging technologies.
And then there is the last five or six years I spent navigating the worlds of business, innovation, strategy consulting, corporate venturing, and deep tech investments - that have undoubtedly added a few white hairs to my collection. Yet, this fusion of business acumen and technological exploration has been anything but boring. It has gifted me a treasure trove of stories—ones that blend the absolute thrill of cutting-edge science with the art of building ventures and driving innovation.
Built on this experience and inspired by Schrondinger's What Is Life? The Physical Aspect of the Living Cell, where he predicted the genetic information stored chemically in covalent bonds, a good 14 years before the discovery of DNA; it has been a while that I have been wanting to write some predictions of my own (nothing as crazy as Schrodinger's yet). Here are few -
Computing - Programming at our whim!
1. Supercomputers as desktops/phones; Quantum computers as today's Supercomputers; Gen AI replacing the Google search as we know today.
The miniaturization of chips and motherboards continues to advance at an astonishing pace. Could you have imagined that we would one day carry gigabytes of data in tiny pen or thumb drives? Innovations in data storage, processing, and sharing are constantly improving, and this trajectory is steering us toward super-computing at our fingertips. Companies like Cerebras Systems , Graphcore etc. exemplify this future, where devices powerful enough to run personalized generative AIs (AI assistants) become commonplace. In such a world, writing may no longer be a necessity—it could evolve into a pure art form.
Generative AIs capable of writing code will revolutionize programming, creating an explosion of new software development. However, this progress will generate such massive volumes of data that even the most enhanced storage capacities may struggle to keep up. Tasks that today seem impossible on our "mediocre"(a comment from future me ;) ) computing systems will become feasible, opening the door for quantum computers to take the reins. Companies like Pasqal and Quobly etc. are already pioneering this next phase of computing journey.
2. Chemical data storage - Archival storage
This explosion of data is going to be so huge, that it will force us to rethink storage strategies, distinguishing between active data storage and archival storage. This is where chemical data storage steps in—mirroring how information is encoded in DNA. Imagine a single liquid jar holding the same amount of information as an entire room filled with semiconductors and motherboards. In case you are interested, some of the notable names in the DNA data storage are CATALOG , Biomemory , DNA Script and Molecular Assemblies, Inc. etc.
You might ask then why would this not replace conventional memory boards outright. The reason lies in the time required for data storage and retrieval. For instance, DNA-based storage involves synthesis to encode and sequencing to decode, while chemical alternatives may rely on spatial arrangements and spectroscopy for their processes. A promising example overcoming the complexities of DNA as storage molecule is AtomICS. Not for active may be, but this could be a huge game changer for Archival data storage.
3. Brain-Computer Interfaces - Man-Machine Singularity
History is filled with examples of innovations we once laughed at becoming reality. "Rockets can't land back" is just one of the many. IN 2075 we would be controlling devices simply by thinking about them, much like how Bluetooth seamlessly connects our phones to nearby devices today. Such breakthroughs in Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs) could provide life-changing solutions for mobility disorders and amputations. Companies like Neuralink, Precision Neuroscience & Neuromodulation Program, BioSerenity are pioneering these technologies, enabling individuals to interface with machines using only their thoughts. Imagine the impact on Autism and other similar behavioral disorders - It would open new arenas to glimpse into the human brain. We would be talking about a seventh sense in 2075 - the integrated AI !
However, as history repeatedly demonstrates, innovation rarely stops at its original purpose. We humans are masters of repurposing! BCIs, initially designed to restore mobility or improve accessibility, could eventually transform the way we interact with the world around us, taking us one step closer to the long-discussed concept of man-machine singularity.
Healthcare - Preventive and Regenerative medicine, and Anti-ageing to start becoming the norm
1. A Largely Democratized Omics Platform – The Dark Genome Uncovered
Advancements in genomics have ushered in an era where the mysteries of the "dark genome"—those regions of DNA once considered non-coding or "junk"—are being uncovered. I am certain some of you would have already heard about scRNA, ncRNA etc. Not yet - try reading what this year's Nobel's were, beyond the AI ones ;). This understanding, combined with AI-powered analytics, is transforming how we approach health care. With AI enabling precise interpretations of complex genetic data, we are moving toward a democratized omics platform that makes personalized, preventive, and diagnostic care accessible to everyone.
Imagine a world where a simple test could identify predispositions to diseases and suggest customized preventive measures tailored to your unique genetic makeup. Companies like Helix and SOPHiA GENETICS are pioneering this space, leveraging AI and big data to decode genetic information at unprecedented scales. As these platforms become more accessible, they promise to revolutionize healthcare by shifting the focus from treatment to prevention, bringing cutting-edge medical insights into every home.
2. Artificial Organs
The dream of replacing or regenerating failing body parts will be a reality with breakthroughs in artificial organs and regenerative medicine already going on today. Innovations in synthetic biology and bioprinting would be able to create artificial organs that can restore functionality or even save lives. Companies like eGenesis, Inc. and Organovo Holdings, Inc. are at the forefront today, exploring biocompatible organ replacements that could eliminate the need for organ donors.
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Imagine not losing family or friends to organ failures! Ah you think this is impossible - you need to read what was said about IVF (In Vitro Fertilization) before it became a reality. In 2075 we would be thinking the same way about artificial organs.
3. Anti-Ageing, Gene Editing, and Anti-Obesity – A New Frontier in Longevity
In 2075, the quest for longevity is no longer confined to science fiction. With cutting-edge developments in anti-ageing, gene editing, and anti-obesity treatments, scientists today are trying to tackle some of the most profound challenges of human health. Billionaires like Jeff Bezos, through ventures like Altos Labs , are investing heavily in this space, driven by the goal of not just extending human life but improving its quality. Some other companies in the space today are Calico Life Sciences, Resverlogix Corp. and UNITY Biotechnology. Fifty years from now, this would be seen as how we see the IVF or Genetic engineering today. Yeah - In Fifty years, we won't be able to recognize the face of Healthcare, as we know it today.
Gene editing technologies, such as CRISPR, hold the potential to correct genetic defects, slow down the ageing process, or even reverse it. There are tons of CRISPR companies today and it particularly exploded after its inventors were awarded a Nobel few years ago. Anti-obesity therapies are leveraging hormonal and molecular pathways to combat one of the leading causes of chronic diseases worldwide. Heard of Ozempic from 诺和诺德 yet? Imagine increasing the life span by not having any of the obesity related disorders!!
While anti-obesity treatments and regenerative medicine in 2075 would be similar to buying an insulin injection today, the gene reprogramming based longevity might be on par with stem cell therapies of today - available only to a elite few.
Energy generation and storage won't be a bottleneck
1. Fusion as an Unlimited Source of Energy
Fusion, the same process that powers the sun, holds the promise of virtually limitless, clean, and sustainable energy. Unlike fossil fuels or nuclear fission, fusion produces no greenhouse gas emissions and generates only minimal radioactive waste. Advancements in magnetic confinement, laser-based ignition, and plasma stabilization will make fusion a norm by 2075. Numerous mega-cities across the globe would be powered by Fusion reactors.
Companies like Proxima Fusion , Commonwealth Fusion Systems , and Helion Energy AG are at the forefront of this revolution today, developing compact and efficient fusion reactors. These systems aim to harness the immense energy produced by fusing hydrogen isotopes into helium, providing a near-infinite energy source. Fusion would be that seismic shift in how we power the world, potentially rendering concerns about energy shortages obsolete and supporting global energy demands sustainably for centuries to come.
Now just for a second, imagine you are there in 2075 - having unlimited source of energy from Fusion. Would this mean Oil and Coal based energy would be replaced complete? I doubt that, however a subsequent portion of the Energy market would be taken over by renewable energy sources (beyond solar and wind - Ocean waves, Natural Osmotic events) and Fusion.
2. Sustainable Long-Duration Energy Storage including Gravitational storage would be a norm.
In 2075, the shift to LDES would already be in its last stages. LDES will become the backbone of a resilient, renewable-powered grid. This progress will significantly reduce our reliance on fossil fuels and Lithium potentially alleviating concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and sustainability.
Today the shift toward renewable energy sources like solar and wind comes with the challenge of intermittency—how to store energy when the sun doesn’t shine or the wind doesn’t blow. Long-duration energy storage (LDES) solutions are critical to overcoming this limitation, ensuring a reliable energy supply regardless of natural fluctuations. Notable players in this space, such as FLASC B.V. , Energy Dome and SunTrain are leveraging innovative technologies like compressed carbon dioxide, open-gas cycles, and streamlined logistics to tackle today’s challenges. Another promising development is the harnessing of gravitational energy, where systems like those by Energy Vault use gravity to store and release energy. These gravitational storage solutions, along with other LDES technologies, will likely complement solar and wind power by 2075, providing reliable, on-demand energy and further reducing our dependence on fossil fuels.
But will we truly solve our environmental challenges, or will we/humanity find new ways to create problems? I suspect the latter. Still, I hold onto hope that fifty years from now, we will have learned from the consequences of our past decisions. Perhaps by then, we will approach innovation with a deeper understanding of its long-term impacts, prioritizing sustainability over short-term gains.
Can anything go wrong if this comes true?
Well that's a Newsletter for another time.
However in summary - The rapid advancements in technologies like long-duration energy storage, fusion, and gene editing bring immense promise, but also potential risks. Unforeseen environmental impacts, inequitable access to cutting-edge innovations, and gaps in ethical and regulatory frameworks could pose significant challenges. Unchecked population growth will inevitably destroy the natural ecosystems further. Additionally, the explosion of data from AI and genomics may lead to security and privacy concerns. It’s crucial that innovation is balanced with caution, ensuring that future progress doesn’t exacerbate existing inequalities or create new problems.
However, change is unavoidable, and with it comes the inevitable cycle of creating problems and spending decades searching for their solutions.
Investor @ Sagana & Circulate Capital | Planetary and Human health | PhD Synthetic Biology
4 个月Pasqal, Quobly, Cerebras Systems, Graphcore, CATALOG, Biomemory, DNA Script, Molecular Assemblies, Inc., AtOmICS, Neuralink, BioSerenity, Helix, SOPHiA GENETICS, eGenesis, Inc., Organovo Holdings, Inc., Altos Labs, Calico Life Sciences, Resverlogix Corp., UNITY Biotechnology, FLASC B.V., Energy Dome, SunTrain Co, Energy Vault, Proxima Fusion, Commonwealth Fusion Systems, Helion Energy AG